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, Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W. ; Louis, Raes ; Ronald J, Mahieu ; Ronald, Mahieu ; Sylvester, Eijffinger. (2010) The bond yield conundrum: alternative hypotheses and the state of the economy.
In: CEPR Discussion Papers. RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8063.

Full description at Econpapers

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The recession probabilities we used, were taken from Chauvet and Piger (2008). The data are available on the website of Jeremy Piger. C Tables and ïgures Constant Loadings Matrix of factor loadings -156.87 0.37-6.81 11.80-3.59 16.34 629.34-1.45 30.99-49.94 11.83-62.10 520.05-1.23 22.10-33.89 1.64-49.57 -62.03 0.15-2.41 3.15 1.67 4.98 40.70-0.10 1.45-1.97 0.40-4.51

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