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, International Monetary Fund. (2016) Turkey: Selected Issue.
In: IMF Staff Country Reports. RePEc:imf:imfscr:2016/105.
Full description at Econpapers
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4. The estimates show a slowdown in potential output growth since before the global financial crisis. For 2007–20 the estimate of potential GDP growth using the multivariate filtering technique gives similar results as the trend GDP growth rates obtained from a simple Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter using only data on real GDP. Both approaches show that potential output growth slowed to 3 percent in 2009, then rebounded to around 4 percent from 2010–13 (see text chart), and slows to 3–3 percent from 2014. However, estimates for future potential growth rates are highly sensitive -6 -4 -2 Actual GDP growth MVF HP filter Estimates of Potential Output Growth (Percent) Sources: Staff estimates Staff projections TURKEY INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 61 to staff’s projections for actual real GDP growth, which show medium term growth of about 3 percent. For the period 2003–06, the HP filter shows about one percentage point higher potential output growth rates compared to the MVF approach.
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