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Jan, Priewe. (2021) Reforming the Fiscal Rulebook for the Euro Area – and the Challenge of Old and New Public Debt.
In: IMK Studies. RePEc:imk:studie:72-2021.

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Said bluntly, if there are so many adverse shocks, good times are rare and short. Times that were good enough to constrain expenditures, even though inflation was unambiguously below target, triggered strong monetary easing. In other words, the imperative to save in good times ignores history (shocks, legacy debt), and it ignores inflation below target, hence monetary policy. Similar narratives could be told regarding European high-debt countries like Italy. Key for understanding Italy’s debt is understanding its historical legacy. Attempting to reverse historical developments by fiscal frugality can lead, under certain circumstances, to self-defeating fiscal constraint. This is a phenomenon ignored by almost all authors following the deficit-bias hypothesis (cp. Fatás/Summers 2018).

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