The S&P 500's dividend outlook for the final quarter of 2025 brightened in the month since our last snapshot of their outlook.

On 15 October 2025, the CME Group's S&P 500 Quarterly Dividend Index' Futures quotes indicated investors could expect to collect $19.90 per share during the period covered by 2025-Q4 dividend futures contracts. On Friday, 14 November 2025, that rose to $19.94 per share, an increase of 0.2% from the previous month's outlook.

Our October 2025 snapshot also presented the projections for the S&P 500's dividends per share through the second quarter of 2026. Here is how the dividends expected in the future quarters of 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2 changed in the past month:

• 2026-Q1: Decrease of $0.01, dipping to $20.89 per share
• 2026-Q2: Increase of $0.02, rising to $19.73 per share

For this dividend snapshot, we're extending the outlook for the S&P 500's expected dividends per share through the fourth quarter of 2026. The following chart presents the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share as provided by dividend futures contracts from 2024-Q1 through 2026-Q4.

A note of caution on the dividend projection for 2026-Q4. Because it covers expectations that are currently more than four quarters into the future, it's best understood as an initial projection based on very thin trading at this point of time. The projection for this quarter can be expected to change once it falls within the typical year-ahead period that defines the typical time horizon for investors and the investment activity for its related dividend futures contract picks up.

More About Dividend Futures Data

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. As determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q4 began on Saturday, 20 September 2025 and will end on Friday, 19 December 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, the next quarter of 2026-Q1 will begin on Saturday, 22 December 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings.

For Fall 2025, our snapshot was taken on 12 November 2025, 91 days after the Summer 2025 snapshot. The outlook for earnings improved since last quarter's snapshot, continuing a positive trend since Spring 2025.

The current projection for the S&P 500's earnings per share through the end of 2025 is $244.51, which would represent a 16.3% year-over-year gain over December 2024's finalized earnings of $210.17.

The following chart, covering how earnings expectations have changed from the end of 2021 through 12 November 2025:

Looking further forward through the end of 2026, Standard & Poor projects the S&P 500's earnings will be $281.78 per share. If this projection holds, it would represent a little over a 15% year-over-year increase over the current earnings projection for 2025.

But will it hold? There's a lot of time between now and the end of December 2026 and if there's one thing the chart makes clear, it's very unlikely the earnings recorded then will match what they were projected to be four quarters earlier!

Reference

Silverblatt, Howard. Standard & Poor. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 12 November 2025. Accessed 15 November 2025.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Earnings' written above it, which we added.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends in the current and remaining quarters of 2025 saw small changes in the month since we last presented a snapshot of their future. The changes were mixed overall, with the total change over all future quarters we previously covered netting out to zero.

Our last snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 Quarterly Dividend Index' Futures quotes was taken on 15 September 2025. The new snapshot is from Wednesday, 15 October 2025. Here is a short summary of the changes over the month-long interval between the snapshots:

• 2025-Q3: Finalized at $19.64 per share, no change.
• 2025-Q4: Increase of $0.02, rising to $19.90 per share
• 2026-Q1: Decrease of $0.02, dipping to $20.90 per share

We're also introducing the outlook for the second quarter of 2026 in our presentation this month, for which the CME Group's futures project quarterly dividends of $19.72 per share.

The following chart presents the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share as provided by dividend futures contracts from 2023-Q1 through 2026-Q2.

Overall, the dividend outlook in future quarters is improving over time, with the projections for each quarter coming in higher than the same quarter in preceding years. At the same time, the projected rate of dividend growth for future quarters is slowing.

We've focused on presenting the dividend futures data for the current quarter (2025-Q4) and the next two quarters (2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2) because the S&P 500 investors have focused their attention on these quarters in recent weeks.

More About Dividend Futures Data

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. As determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q4 began on Saturday, 20 September 2025 and will end on Friday, 19 December 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, the next quarter of 2026-Q1 will begin on Saturday, 22 December 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends in the current and remaining quarters of 2025 has changed in the month since we presented our previous snapshot of their future. They have changed for both the worse and for the better since we took that snapshot just over a month ago.

The change for the worse applies to the current quarter of 2025-Q3, while the change for the better holds for the fourth and final quarter of 2025.

Our last snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 Quarterly Dividend Index' Futures quotes was taken on 13 August 2025. The new snapshot is from Monday, 15 September 2025. Here is our text summary of how they changed:

• 2025-Q3: Decrease of $0.17, declining to $19.64 per share
• 2025-Q4: Increase of $0.03, rising to $19.88 per share

The following animated chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 13 August 2025 to 15 September 2025. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

As a special bonus, here's how the S&P 500's dividends expected in the first quarter of 2026 changed!

• 2026-Q1: Increase of $0.20, rising to $20.94 per share

If that expectation holds, it will represent a year-over-year increase of $0.61 per share, or three percent, over 2025-Q1's finalized $20.33 per share.

More About Dividend Futures Data

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q3 began on Saturday, 21 June 2025 and will end on this Friday, 19 September 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, 2025-Q4 will become the current quarter on Saturday, 22 September 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends in the current and remaining quarters of 2025 improved in the month since we presented our previous snapshot of their future.

The amount of dividends expected to be paid out the remaining quarters of 2025 have risen above the levels recorded on 14 July 2025, with both quarters seeing gains and 2025-Q3 seeing a very large one. Here are the projections recorded as of the close of trading on Monday, 13 August 2025.

• 2025-Q3: Increase of $0.55, rising to $19.81 per share
• 2025-Q4: Increase of $0.09, rising to $19.85 per share

The following animated chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 14 July 2025 to 13 August 2025. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

As a special bonus, here's a first outlook for the S&P 500's dividends expected in the first quarter of 2026:

• 2026-Q1: $20.64 per share

If that expectation holds, it will represent a year-over-year increase of $0.31 per share over 2025-Q1's finalized $20.33 per share.

More About Dividend Futures Data

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q3 began on Saturday, 21 June 2025 and will end on Friday, 19 September 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, 2025-Q4 will become the current quarter on Saturday, 22 September 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends in the current and remaining quarters of 2025 improved in the month since we presented our previous snapshot of their future.

The amount of dividends expected to be paid out in each of these quarters has risen above the levels recorded on 13 June 2025, but by varying amounts. Both the recently ended quarter of 2025-Q2 and the now current quarter of 2025-Q3 saw small increases. The fourth quarter of 2025 however is projected to have a much larger gain than was forecast in the previous month.

Here are the projections recorded as of the close of trading on Monday, 14 July 2025.

• 2025-Q2: Increase of $0.14, rising to $19.35 per share
• 2025-Q3: Increase of $0.13, rising to $19.26 per share
• 2025-Q4: Increase of $0.49, rising to $19.76 per share

The following animated chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 13 May 2025 to 14 July 2025. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

More About Dividend Futures Data

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q3 began on Saturday, 21 June 2025 and will end on Friday, 19 September 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, 2025-Q4 will become the current quarter on Saturday, 22 September 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends in upcoming quarters is little changed since our previous snapshot of the future for the index' cash payouts a month ago.

The little change that has taken place however is mixed. For the three remaining quarters of 2025, expected dividends are up in the current quarter of 2025-Q2, up slightly in 2025-Q3, but down slightly in 2025-Q4. Here are the numbers recorded as of the close of trading on Monday, 16 June 2025.

• 2025-Q2: Increase of $0.14, rising to $19.21 per share
• 2025-Q3: Increase of $0.03, rising to $19.13 per share
• 2025-Q4: Decrease of $0.03, falling to $19.27 per share

The following animated chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 15 April 2025 to 15 May 2025. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

This is the last time 2025-Q2 will be presented as a future quarter in this series. The expiration of June 2025's quarterly dividend futures contract will come with the close of trading on this upcoming Friday. We don't anticipate the projected dividends in the chart will change very much before it expires.

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

More About Dividend Futures Data

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q2 began on Saturday, 22 March 2025 and will end on Friday, 20 June 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, 2025-Q3 will become the current quarter effective on Saturday, 21 June 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends in upcoming quarters has improved considerably over the month since our previous snapshot of the future.

Each of 2025's remaining quarters to be completed showed improvement. Here's the short summary of how they changed and what the expectations are as of the close of trading on Tuesday, 15 May 2025.

• 2025-Q2: Increase of $0.02, rising to $19.07 per share
• 2025-Q3: Increase of $0.14, rising to $19.10 per share
• 2025-Q4: Increase of $0.46, rising to $19.30 per share

The following animated chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 15 April 2025 to 15 May 2025. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

The picture changes a little when we compare our May 2025 snapshot with our 14 March 2025 snapshot, which was taken before President Trump's 2 April 2025 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement. That action knocked the dividend outlook lower in its immediate aftermath, which bottomed about a week before our 15 April 2025 snapshot before beginning to recover.

As of 15 May 2025, the outlook for dividends in the current quarter of 2025-Q2 has surpassed its mid-March 2025 level by $0.22 per share. Meanwhile, expected dividends in 2025-Q3 has recovered all but $0.05 per share of its value, but 2025-Q4 remains some $0.30 per share short of its projected level from 14 March 2025.

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

More About Dividend Futures Data

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q2 began on Saturday, 22 March 2025 and will end on Friday, 20 June 2025.

That makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings.

The latest snapshot comes 87 days after the Winter 2025 snapshot. Since that snapshot, the outlook for earnings has dimmed, with significantly lower growth anticipated in the quarters ahead.

The change over the past three months is larger than the typical pattern that earnings forecasts follow. Here, expectations for future earnings tend to erode with each later snapshot, usually by relatively small amounts from quarter to quarter. It is unusual for the earnings forecast to improve from snapshot to snapshot.

Two major events have occurred during the last three months that have knocked the earnings forecast lower. First, a deflation phase for the AI-bubble got underway, starting on 21 February 2025 when the company behind China's DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence (AI) system announced they would make its code open source. That serious new competition put a cap on the potential earnings of the "Big Tech" firms making big AI-related investments.

Second, President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement after the market closed on 2 April 2025 knocked the earnings outlook for many other firms lower, at least through the time of this snapshot. This snapshot only captures a little over a week's worth of the recent surge of deal-making momentum that's driven stock prices higher in recent weeks.

Of the two events, the deflation of the AI-bubble has been the bigger force shaping future earnings expectations.

The following chart, covering how earnings expectations have changed from the end of 2021 through 9 May 2025:

The current projection for the S&P 500's earnings per share through the end of 2025 is $241.33, which would represent 14.8% year-over-year earnings growth over December 2024's finalized level of $210.17.

Looking further forward through the index' expected earnings per share through the end of 2026, Standard & Poor projects the S&P 500's earnings per share will be $276.88, down 4.4% from its initial estimate of $289.64 per share.

Reference

Silverblatt, Howard. Standard & Poor. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 9 May 2025. Accessed 16 May 2025.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Earnings' written above it, which we added.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends in future quarters generally trended for the worse over the past four weeks since our last snapshot was taken.

Once again, the quarter-by-quarter changes present something of a mixed picture for investors. The outlook improved by a small amount for the current quarter of 2025-Q2. The more distant future quarters of 2025-Q3 and 2025-Q4 however were decidedly negative.

Here's a quick summary of how they changed and what the expectations are as of the close of trading on Tuesday, 15 April 2025.

• 2025-Q1: Decrease of $0.01, finalizing at $20.33 per share
• 2025-Q2: Increase of $0.20, rising to $19.05 per share
• 2025-Q3: Decrease of $0.19 to $18.96 per share
• 2025-Q4: Decrease of $0.76 to $18.84 per share

Since these are snapshots, they don't quite capture the magnitude of how much the S&P 500's dividend outlook has been changing over this period, particularly in the period since 2 April 2025. For example, from 14 March 2025 up to that date, the dividend outlook for 2025-Q4 had held within a relatively narrow range between $19.50 per share and $19.65 per share. From 3 April 2025 through 15 April 2025, the amount of dividends expected to be paid out in the final quarter of 2025 has ranged between $18.00 and $19.63. Dividend futures for 2025-Q4 have been rebounding since hitting that low of $18.00 on 7 April 2025.

The following animated chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 14 March 2025 to 15 April 2025. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

More About Dividend Futures Data

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q2 began on Saturday, 22 March 2025 and will end on Friday, 20 June 2025.

That makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends in future quarters changed quite a bit in the four weeks since our last snapshot was taken. The bad news is how they changed, which on net, was for the negative.

The actual quarter-by-quarter changes present something of a mixed picture for investors however. On the plus side, the outlook changed for the better for the current quarter of 2025-Q1 and the distant future quarter of 2025-Q4. But for the two quarters in between, the change was negative.

Here's a quick summary of how they changed and what the expectations are as of the close of trading on Friday, 14 March 2025.

• 2025-Q1: Increase of $0.19 to $20.34 per share
• 2025-Q2: Decrease of $0.30 to $18.85 per share
• 2025-Q3: Decrease of $0.23 to $19.15 per share
• 2025-Q4: Increase of $0.14 to $19.60 per share

The decreases for 2025-Q2 and 2025-Q3 are large enough to pull the net change in the dividend outlook for the S&P 500 to be negative when compared with the dividend outlook of four weeks earlier.

The following animated chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed from 14 February 2025 and 14 March 2025. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future affects stock prices is described by this math. It's not a coincidence that the momentum of stock prices turned negative in the same period the outlook for dividends have.

More About Dividend Futures Data

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q1 began on Saturday, 21 December 2024 and will end on Friday, 21 March 2025.

That makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

Several weeks have passed since our previous look at the expected future quarterly dividends of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) in 2025.

Our last snapshot was taken on 21 January 2025, our new picture of the outlook for the index' dividends in 2025 was snapped on 14 February 2025. In between, investor expectations for how many dividends per share will be paid out before the end of the current quarter of 2025-Q1 rose from $19.95 to $20.15, which is quite a bump. The outlook also improved for the upcoming second quarter of 2025, although to a lesser extent as the forecast rose from $19.04 per share to $19.15 per share.

Looking further out, the future prospects for the S&P 500's quarterly dividend payouts were either slightly negative or slightly positive. Projected dividends in 2025-Q3 dipped from $19.41 per share to $19.38, while 2025-Q4's dividends rose from $19.44 per share to $19.46.

The following animated chart shows these changes for current and future quarterly dividends along with the final recorded reading of the dividend futures for each previous quarter from 2022-Q4 through 2024-Q4. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future affects stock prices is described by this math.

More About Dividend Futures Data

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q1 began on Saturday, 21 December 2024 and will end on Friday, 21 March 2025.

That makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings.

The latest snapshot is a little early, but still 90 days since the Fall 2024 snapshot. During this time, remarkably little changed in the outlook for the collective earnings of the companies that make up the S&P 500 index. That relative lack of change is a new development that's taken place over the past six months.

That's remarkable because it runs counter to the pattern we typically see in how the outlook for earnings changes with time. That pattern is one in which the expectations for future earnings tend to erode with each later snapshot.

To be sure, that pattern holds in the Winter 2025 snapshot but the amount of erosion is tiny. Looking at the S&P 500's anticipated earnings per share for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, we find those expectations dipped by $1.49 per share. That's a decline of just 0.6%.

The following chart, covering how earnings expectations have changed from the end of 2021 through 11 February 2025 illustrates both the typical pattern and the relative lack of change in those expectations since 13 August 2024:

The current projection for the S&P 500's earnings per share through the end of 2025 is $249.13, which would represent 18.2% year-over-year earnings growth over December 2024's level of $210.81. Given the typical pattern for how earnings projections develop over time, that figure represents the likely ceiling for potential earnings growth during 2025.

The Winter 2025 snapshot also includes the first projection of the index' expected earnings per share through the end of 2026. The first estimate of what those earnings will be is $289.64 per share.

Reference

Silverblatt, Howard. Standard & Poor. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 13 November 2024. Accessed 17 February 2025.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Earnings' written above it, which we added.

A month has passed since our previous look at the expected future quarterly dividends of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) in 2025.

Since that date in mid-December 2024, investors expectations of how many rate cuts there will be during 2025 have see-sawed between zero and two, which goes a long way to explaining why the value of the S&P 500 has traded in a range that's gone as low as 5,827.04 on 10 January 2025 and as high as 6,049.24 as investors expectations of how many interest rate cuts there will be during 2025 have changed. The low figure corresponds to "fewer" rate cuts, with just one in the second quarter of the year, the high figure corresponds to the expectation of "more" rate cuts, with the odds now building for a second rate cut in the fourth quarter of 2025. The high figure also happens to be the closing value of the S&P 500 on Tuesday, 21 January 2025.

But expectations of when the Federal Reserve might change interest rates is not the only driver of stock prices. While those changing expectations affect how far forward in time investors set their focus as they set current day stock prices, expectations for the dividends that will be paid out in the future quarters of 2025 play just as important a role. The following animated chart confirms that outlook has brightened over the past month. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future affects stock prices is described by this math.

More About Dividend Futures Data

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q1 began on Saturday, 21 December 2024 and will end on Friday, 21 March 2025.

That makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

It has been over a month since our first look at the expected future quarterly dividends of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) in 2025. A lot of things have happened since then, most notably the Federal Reserve acted to cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter point on 18 December 2024, as was widely expected.

But the Fed also clearly signaled they were looking at proceeding with fewer rate cuts in 2025 than investors expected a month earlier, which was not as widely expected. The S&P 500 fell nearly three percent below the previous day's close as investors absorbed that information, with all of the decline taking place after the Fed's action.

Our latest snapshot for the future of the S&P 500's dividends was snapped on the morning of Wednesday, 18 December 2024, ahead of the Fed's interest rate announcements. Compared to what investors expected a month ago, the outlook for dividends through the next year has dimmed, in part because the prospects for continued interest rate cuts in 2025 has been dimming. The following animated chart shows how the expectations for dividends changed in the month from the morning of 15 November 2024 to the morning of 18 December 2024. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

The 18 December 2025 snapshot of the S&P 500's quarterly dividend futures represents the "before" picture of the outlook for the index' expected dividend payouts in 2025. We'll follow up next year with a snapshot of the outlook for dividends "after" the Fed's action.

Going back to the reaction of investors to the Fed's announcements, we've animated the alternative futures chart for 2024-Q4 that we've been featuring in our regular S&P 500 chaos series. Here, this animated chart shows the changes in the S&P 500 between our most recent snapshot taken on Friday, 13 December 2024 to where the index closed on Wednesday, 18 December 2024:

The trajectory of the S&P 500 over the last few days suggests investors briefly shifted their focus to the more distant quarter of 2025-Q3, coinciding with the expected timing of the Fed's second rate cut in 2025, before turning their full attention back to 2025-Q2 in setting current day stock prices after the Fed's announcement, where whether or not rate cut will take place in this quarter has been at issue in recent weeks.

Given the Federal Reserve's influence over future expectations of interest rate changes, we use the Fed's regularly scheduled announcements of its interest rate policies as calibration points for the dividend futures-based model. The next calibration exercise will be on 29 January 2025.