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Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

Economics

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The fourth quarter will bring shifting trade tactics, evolving wars, and pivotal elections and flashpoints worldwide that will test governments’ stability and market confidence.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

U.S.-China Relations

United States

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Denmark

Ukraine

Moldova

Representatives are pictured ahead of a working session during the informal EU foreign ministers' meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark, on Aug. 30, 2025.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: EU Leaders Meet in Denmark, Moldova Elects a New Parliament

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Australia

France

United Kingdom

Dignitaries attend a U.N. Security Council meeting on the situation in the Middle East, including the question of Palestinian statehood, during the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 23, 2025, in New York City. 

Western countries' growing recognition of Palestinian statehood is largely symbolic and will likely galvanize Israel's push for West Bank annexation, risking further Israeli diplomatic isolation abroad and sporadic violence at home.

The West's Growing Support for Palestinian Statehood Will Have Limited Concrete Impacts

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

While countries will likely increasingly pursue trade deals with digital clauses, the slow pace of regulatory development, coupled with a global tendency toward protectionism, will impede the push toward building out more streamlined digital economy agreements.

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Role of Digital Trade in Modern Free Trade Agreements

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 25, 2025

Turkey

This aerial photograph shows dry areas near the Alacati Kutlu Aktas Dam in Izmir, Turkey, on July 30, 2025. 

The absence of a national water strategy leaves local authorities and businesses exposed to the mounting pressures of climate change, inefficient agricultural practices and population growth.

Water Scarcity Likely to Worsen With Climate Change, Deepening Turkey's Economic Challenges

Columns

On Security

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

Egypt

Egyptian army vehicles are deployed along the border with the Gaza Strip on July 4, 2024, in the north Sinai Peninsula. 

Energy

While an all-out war remains improbable, Egypt's military buildup in the Sinai Peninsula will increase the risk of sporadic border incidents and could prompt Israel to suspend a major energy deal with Cairo.

Is an Israel-Egypt Conflict on the Horizon?

Brazil

A digital illustration of the Brazilian flag with economic and financial indicators. 

The current administration's focus on boosting growth through public expenditure is delaying necessary fiscal consolidation, setting the stage for more difficult and potentially drastic economic adjustments after elections in 2026.

Brazil Faces an Inevitable Fiscal Reckoning

An H1B visa (for specialty workers) stamp is seen in a passport.

The sudden implementation of a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas will disproportionately harm smaller companies and universities and weigh on the U.S. economy.

The H-1B Fee Will Undermine U.S. Innovation and Competitiveness

The Moldovan flag flutters near government buildings in Chisinau on Jan. 17, 2025. 

Moldova's ambition for EU accession faces a critical test in elections due Sept. 28, where the performance of the pro-Russian bloc could either derail pro-European reforms or preserve a narrow, albeit unstable, path toward the West.

Moldova's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Latest

Iran

China

Russia

The U.N. Security Council holds a meeting on Iran at the U.N. headquarters in New York City, New York, on Sept. 19, 2025. 

The increased isolation will make Iran more reliant on China and Russia, while the added economic strain could fuel domestic protests and empower Iranian hard-liners calling for more aggressive action against the West.

U.N. Sanctions Snapback: What's Next for Iran?

U.S.-Iran Relations

A Polish-made FlyEye V3.0 drone is displayed during the Iron Defender-25 media day on Sept. 18, 2025, in Nowa Deba, Poland. 

European efforts to fast-track a sophisticated anti-drone system will unlock major contracts for defense firms, but the vast scale of the project will leave Europe exposed to Russian provocations for years.

EU 'Drone Wall' Plans Will Take Years To Materialize, Leaving Continent Vulnerable in the Meantime

Syria

Israeli military vehicles drive along a border fence, near the town of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, on July 17, 2025. 

Syria and Israel will likely ink a security pact to ease border tensions before the end of the year, but the deal's likely narrow scope and other unresolved disputes will keep it fragile.

The Implications of a Syria-Israel De-Escalation Agreement

Snapshots

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng arrives for trade talks with US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent at the foreign ministry in Madrid on Sept. 14, 2025.

A Trump-Xi phone call and a fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks have yielded few concrete results, showing that negotiations on trade and TikTok will remain slow-going.

Despite Trump-Xi Phone Call, U.S.-China Trade Talks Struggle To Gain Traction

India

A department store on Sept. 5, 2025, in Mumbai, after the Indian government slashed GST rates. While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

India's GST Reforms Will Weigh on State Finances 

Flag of China on a red-painted printed circuit board.

Advancements in China's semiconductor sector are reducing Chinese companies' reliance on foreign technology, enabling them to push back more firmly against Western hegemony.

China's Chip Advances Increase Beijing's Leverage in Talks With the U.S.

Poland

Russia's drone incursion into Poland highlights Moscow's increasing willingness to test Western resolve as it continues mass airstrikes on Ukraine, prepares for war games in Belarus and negotiations to end the war are stalled. 


Russian Drones Crossing into Poland Risk Escalation with NATO

Nepal

Demonstrators carrying Nepal's national flag stage a protest outside the parliament building in Kathmandu on Sept. 8, 2025, against social media prohibitions and government corruption. 

Despite the prime minister's resignation and the lifting of a controversial social media ban, risks of violent unrest will likely persist as long-standing political instability deepens.

Nepal's Political Instability Deepens as Violent Protests Prompt Prime Minister's Resignation

Qatar

Smoke billows after explosions in Qatar's capital of Doha on Sept. 9. The attack will reduce the odds of a ceasefire in Gaza as Qatar walks back from its role as mediator and reassesses its regional diplomatic and security strategy.

The attack will reduce the odds of a ceasefire in Gaza as Qatar walks back from its role as mediator and reassesses its regional diplomatic and security strategy.

Israel's Attack on Hamas' Political Leadership Scrambles Qatar's Regional Role

France's then-Prime Minister Francois Bayrou (C) delivers his general policy statement during an extraordinary parliamentary session prior to a confidence vote over the government's austerity budget at the National Assembly in Paris on Sept. 8, 2025.

Spending cuts proposed by the ousted prime minister and the prospect of further austerity measures have energized a new grassroots movement, raising the specter of another yellow vest-style uprising.

In France, Prime Minister Bayrou's Ouster Deepens Political Paralysis and Fiscal Uncertainty

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba attends a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office on Sept. 6, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan.

Japan's leadership contest will threaten to split the ruling party as conservative and reformer factions compete to place their leaders in the country's highest office.

In Japan, Ishiba's Resignation Sparks a Volatile Party Leadership Contest

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

On Geopolitics

Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Police tape hangs in front of Utah Valley University following the fatal shooting of political activist Charlie Kirk during an event at the campus Sept. 12, 2025 in Orem, Utah. The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

Charlie Kirk's Assassination: The Latest Chapter in America's Long History of Political Violence

A portrait of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan is seen in the background as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 22, 2025.

In just seven months in office, the Trump administration has pursued a series of highly unconventional economic policies that, taken together, amount to the deepest government interventionism into the U.S. economy of any president since the Reagan era.

The Visible Hand: Trump's Interventionism Reshapes American Capitalism

A person holds a smartphone showing an interface introducing OpenAI's new GPT-5 model in the ChatGPT app in front of a blurred OpenAI logo on Aug. 9, 2025, in Chongqing, China. 

Despite users' disappointment with the lack of conversational improvements, GPT-5 signifies a shift in AI development from basic chatbots to more advanced agentic systems, capable of complex, multi-step tasks.

GPT-5 and the Evolution of AI

South Sudan

Chad

Ethiopia

Somalia

Sudan

Uganda

United Arab Emirates

Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.   (ED RAM/AFP via Getty Images)

The UAE is expanding its influence across East Africa through large-scale investments and security partnerships, aiming to consolidate its status as a global trade hub and counter regional competitors, at the risk of entangling regional states in broader geopolitical contests.

The UAE's Long Game in East Africa

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast Webcast

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said the company would redirect Russian liquefied natural gas from the Yamal facility to markets such as Turkey or India if the European Union bans imports, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 29.

Russia: TotalEnergies Signals Russian LNG Redirection Amid Potential EU Ban

Afghanistan

Science & Technology

The Afghan Taliban shut down Afghanistan's fiber-optic telecommunications network indefinitely amid a push in recent weeks to limit activities it deems immoral, resulting in disruptions to internet access, mobile and landline phone services, as well as television and radio transmissions, AFP reported on Sept. 30.

Afghanistan: Taliban Imposes Nationwide Telecommunications Blackout

Madagascar

Malagasy President Andry Rajoelina dissolved his entire government following nationwide deadly protests over ongoing water and power cuts, RFI reported on Sept. 29.

Madagascar: President Dissolves Entire Government Following Deadly Protests

Tanzania

Zambia

China signed a $1.4 billion agreement with Zambia and Tanzania to revitalize the Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority (Tazara) that links Zambia's copper-rich region to the Indian Ocean port of Dar es Salaam, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 29.

Tanzania, Zambia: China Signs $1.4B Agreement To Revitalize Railway

South Korea

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba met with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung in the South Korean port city of Busan, and they issued a joint statement pledging to strengthen cooperation on societal and technological issues, Yonhap News Agency reported on Sept. 30.

South Korea, Japan: Leader Summit Confirms Ties, But Political Headwinds Remain

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung's Cabinet announced that it would dissolve the Supreme Prosecutors' Office and replace the Korea Communications Commission with a new regulator, Yonhap News Agency reported on Sept. 30.

South Korea: Ministry Revamp Strengthens President, Portends Greater Spending

California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a new artificial intelligence law, creating one of the most robust regulatory frameworks in the country aiming to oversee the nascent technology, The New York Times reported on Sept. 29.

U.S.: California Passes Landmark AI Legislation

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned that the United Kingdom stood "at a fork in the road" between renewal and decline during a keynote speech at the Labour Party's annual conference in Liverpool, urging his party to unite around economic growth as the path to higher living standards, The Guardian reported on Sept. 30.

U.K.: Prime Minister Keir Starmer Calls for Party Unity at Labour Annual Conference

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters near Air Force One at the airport in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 3, 2025. Trump answered questions about his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, among other topics. 

While the Trump administration's outreach to Russia may yield limited cooperation, a comprehensive ''reset'' is unlikely for the foreseeable future due to Moscow and Washington's diverging strategic interests.

Can Trump Reset U.S.-Russia Relations?

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose ahead of a meeting in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16, 2018. 

As Putin and Trump prepare to meet in Alaska, the main risk for Ukraine is a U.S.-Russia deal that cements major territorial losses while offering weak security guarantees, leaving it vulnerable to future Russian aggression.

Putin-Trump Summit: The Risks for Ukraine

Thousands of young Moroccans took to the streets in numerous cities, including Rabat, Casablanca and Agadir, for a third consecutive day on Sept. 29 to protest dire economic conditions, Reuters reported on Sept. 30.

Morocco: Gen Z Protests Continue

Venezuela

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro declared a state of external commotion, which allows the military control of public services, strategic institutions, the oil industry and border closures, El Pais reported on Sept. 29.

U.S., Venezuela: Maduro Expands Power as Tensions With U.S. Escalate

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia: TotalEnergies Signals Russian LNG Redirection Amid Potential EU Ban

Afghanistan: Taliban Imposes Nationwide Telecommunications Blackout

Madagascar: President Dissolves Entire Government Following Deadly Protests

Tanzania, Zambia: China Signs $1.4B Agreement To Revitalize Railway

South Korea, Japan: Leader Summit Confirms Ties, But Political Headwinds Remain

South Korea: Ministry Revamp Strengthens President, Portends Greater Spending

U.S.: California Passes Landmark AI Legislation

U.K.: Prime Minister Keir Starmer Calls for Party Unity at Labour Annual Conference

Morocco: Gen Z Protests Continue

U.S., Venezuela: Maduro Expands Power as Tensions With U.S. Escalate

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