Why Some Sales Teams Are Actually Growing Alongside AI

In 2016, we published an HBR article headlined “Despite Dire Predictions, Salespeople Aren’t Going Away.” At the time, there had been a string of predictions that new technologies would lead companies to cut back the size of their sales forces, including an alarming forecast that one million business-to-business (B2B) salespeople would be displaced from jobs by 2020. But we didn’t buy it. Here’s the argument we made back then: While digital tools are shifting some buying steps online and eliminating certain sales roles, many B2B purchases, especially those involving complex or new products, remain challenging and uncertain. This reality, we argued, would continue to create strong demand for skilled salespeople who can help buyers navigate difficult problems, shape solutions, build consensus, and realize value. Our prediction: “Barring a significant economic downturn, the total number of B2B sales jobs is more likely to grow than shrink.” Nearly a decade later, the data is in. Aside from a temporary dip during the Covid-19 pandemic, the long-term trend points to growth, not decline. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the number of non-retail B2B salespeople in the U.S. rose from 3.9 million in 2015 to 4.1 million in 2019, dropped briefly back down to 3.9 million in 2020, and grew to 4.2 million by 2024. But now, with rapid advances in AI and gen AI, it’s fair to ask: Could this time be different? Could smarter systems finally diminish the need for large B2B sales forces? In our view, the answer is still no. Not even now. There’s some nuance in the trendlines, however. While overall sales headcount has grown, the gains and losses vary by industry, customer type, and product focus. Where Are Sales Forces Shrinking and Where Are They Growing? In sectors with transactional purchases, known products, and repeat buying patterns, digital tools enable buyers to serve themselves without needing help from salespeople. This explains why in some industries, such as pharmaceuticals or industrial distribution, sales forces have shrunk. Leading pharma firms have cut 20–25% of their reps since 2019, responding to declining access to healthcare providers, the growing prominence of complex therapies prescribed by specialized physicians, and increasing reliance on digital information sources. According to our calculations from its public data, Grainger, a leading industrial distributor, reduced its global outside sales headcount by more than 600 and closed 40% of its branches from 2014 to 2024, replacing them with digital channels and a leaner inside sales team. But in tech and advanced manufacturing sectors, where complexity is high or rising, sales teams are actually getting bigger. Salesforce, the enterprise cloud and CRM giant, ramped up sales hiring to push its AI offerings. After announcing plans in late 2024 to add 1,000 account executives, CEO Marc Benioff expanded the target a month later to 2,000 new sales hires, even as hiring for engineering and other roles was cut. Nvidia, Google Cloud, AWS, and others have hired salespeople aggressively in the last five years to bring their growing array of complex offerings to enterprises. Even analytics company Palantir Technologies, whose CEO Alex Karp once said he would only hire a sales team if forced by investors or “hit by a bus,” began adding salespeople in 2019 and now has over 170 sales staff with plans to keep growing this number. The key driver for sales force increases? It is the type of ambiguity that buyers and sellers face, and the distinct roles that digital tools and salespeople play in resolving it. How Do Companies Choose Between Salespeople and Digital Channels? Not every buying and selling journey is complex, but when it is, ambiguity arises. Connections between buyers and sellers typically unfold in three phases: explore and define, evaluate and commit, and realize value and grow. At each stage, buyers may be uncertain about their needs, options, or outcomes, while sellers must determine how to engage, design solutions, and deliver value. The approach to resolving these ambiguities depends on the situation. Digital tools often suffice in simpler cases, but more complex ones require human expertise, supported by digital capabilities. Explore and Define In the early stage, ambiguity for buyers arises as they work to define their problem and identify potential solutions. When needs are straightforward, buyers rely on self-service online content to determine which seller/s should figure in their consideration set. But in less familiar situations, while digital sources may guide early thinking, salespeople help interpret information, clarify needs, and identify solution possibilities. Sellers, meanwhile, must determine which customers to target and what content will resonate. Automated lead scoring and intent signals can trigger effective outreach in many situations, but as complexity increases, salespeople’s judgement becomes important for prioritizing accounts and tailoring messages to buyer issues. Evaluate and Commit In the middle stage, buyers evaluate alternatives and decide on a course of action. They can resolve many ambiguities by comparing, configuring, and pricing solutions online. But for high-stakes purchases involving multiple stakeholders or tailored solutions, back-and-forth exploration, guided by salespeople, is required. For sellers, this stage is about designing the offer and knowing the right actions for advancing toward a sale. Auto-generated proposals and self-service purchase portals can help, but in complex scenarios, salespeople, aided by digital tools, play a vital role in orchestrating across the buying and selling organizations and building consensus. Realize Value and Grow Even after a purchase, buyers may need help implementing the solution and adapting it as circumstances change. Automated onboarding and support systems can cover many needs. In more complex situations, customer success managers or account managers bring the context, discussion, and judgment buyers value. For sellers, post purchase ambiguity is about how to ensure continued value and drive growth. While automated renewal prompts and engagement triggers may be sufficient in simpler cases, other situations require salespeople to nurture ongoing relationships, build loyalty, and help uncover evolving opportunities. Across all three stages, sellers must build trust and reduce buyer risk. When stakes are low, online reviews or digital validation may be enough. But in high-stakes or unfamiliar situations, trust is earned through conversations, references, and relationships with salespeople. Effective orchestration is essential throughout, using smart systems to match tools to tasks while automating the structured and relying on salespeople for the nuanced. What Sales Leaders Should Do Now Rather than asking, How many salespeople do we need? the better starting question is: Where do we and our customers face ambiguity, and how should we resolve it? Key actions include: Map both buyer and seller ambiguity. Identify where human involvement is essential and where digital can lead. Redesign roles. Move from traditional rep archetypes to roles focused on problem-solving, orchestration, and value realization, tailored to complexity and buying context. Invest in hybrid systems and orchestration. Digital tools and human expertise must work in tandem, with each playing to its strengths while ensuring seamless handoffs across digital and human touchpoints. Accelerate adaptation. Continuously adjust sales roles, digital tools, and engagement models as sources of ambiguity shift, increasing as needs change but shrinking as buyers and sellers gain experience. Train for digital fluency. Build teams that are not just digitally supported, but are able to interpret data, personalize engagement, collaborate digitally, and embrace new technologies. And above all, stay close to the evolving customers. . . . We repeat our old prediction: “Barring a significant economic downturn, the total number of B2B sales jobs is more likely to grow than shrink [over the next decade.]” We’ve seen this cycle before. Radio, television, and early information systems all triggered predictions of the salesperson’s demise, yet each wave of innovation redefined the job rather than replacing it. Today, AI and digital systems are once again reshaping what it means to sell. Innovation in products and services, market shifts, new regulations, and geopolitical disruptions (e.g., volatile tariffs) create uncertainty, complexity, and risk, for buyers. This feeds the need for smart, adaptive, salespeople.

Why Some Sales Teams Are Actually Growing Alongside AI

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