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On the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Reserves during the 2021-22 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle

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  • Rashad Ahmed
  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Jamel Saadaoui
  • Gazi Salah Uddin

Abstract

This paper examines whether levels of foreign exchange (FX) reserves and other fundamental factors explain cross-country differences in foreign currency depreciation observed over the 2021- 22 Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening that led to a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. Considering a broad cross-section of countries, we document that an additional 10 percentage points of FX reserves/GDP held ex-ante were associated with 1.5 to 2 percent less exchange rate depreciation and this buffer effect was larger among less financially developed economies. Higher ex-ante policy rates were also associated with less depreciation, especially among financially open economies. Taken together, these results support the buffering role of FX reserves and their potential to promote monetary policy independence in the presence of international spillovers.

Suggested Citation

  • Rashad Ahmed & Joshua Aizenman & Jamel Saadaoui & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2023. "On the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Reserves during the 2021-22 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle," Working Papers of BETA 2023-13, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2023-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshua Aizenman & Daniel Riera-Crichton, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in an Era of Growing Financial and Trade Integration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 812-815, November.
    2. Goldberg, Linda S. & Krogstrup, Signe, 2023. "International capital flow pressures and global factors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Ho, Sy-Hoa & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Saadaoui, Jamel & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "Real exchange rate and international reserves in the era of financial integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    5. Aizenman, Joshua & LEE, JAEWOO, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt44g3n2j8, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2007. "Real exchange rate and international reserves in an era of growing financial and trade integration," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6dr794sb, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    7. Aizenman, Joshua & LEE, JAEWOO, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2tn4w8x6, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    8. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Commodity currencies and causality: Some high-frequency evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    9. Luis Cabezas & José Gregorio, 2019. "Accumulation of reserves in emerging and developing countries: mercantilism versus insurance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(4), pages 819-857, November.
    10. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2015. "Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-15.
    11. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," NBER Working Papers 14533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ahmed, Rashad, 2019. "Commodity Currencies and Causality: Some High-Frequency Evidence," MPRA Paper 98319, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jan 2020.
    13. Ahmed, Shaghil & Coulibaly, Brahima & Zlate, Andrei, 2017. "International financial spillovers to emerging market economies: How important are economic fundamentals?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 133-152.
    14. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2012. "International reserves and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 388-406.
    15. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael M. Hutchison, 2016. "The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 317-356, June.
    16. Jason Choi & Taeyoung Doh & Andrew Foerster & Zinnia Martinez, 2022. "Monetary Policy Stance Is Tighter than Federal Funds Rate," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(30), pages 1-5, November.
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    18. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
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    1. Aizenman, Joshua & Ho, Sy-Hoa & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Saadaoui, Jamel & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "Real exchange rate and international reserves in the era of financial integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Nikolaos Giannakis & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Jamel Saadaoui & Emmanouil Sofianos, 2025. "Do International Reserve Holdings Still Predict Economic Crises? Insights from Recent Machine Learning Techniques," Working Papers 2025.6, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    3. Coulibaly, Issiaka & Gnimassoun, Blaise & Mighri, Hamza & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "International reserves, currency depreciation and public debt: New evidence of buffer effects in Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Wang, Mengjiao & Liu, Jianxu & Yang, Bing, 2024. "Does the strength of the US dollar affect the interdependence among currency exchange rates of RCEP and CPTPP countries?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    5. Boris Podobnik & Dorian Wild & Dejan Kovac, 2025. "Cutting the Geopolitical Ties: Foreign Exchange Reserves, GDP and Military Spending," Papers 2507.05856, arXiv.org.

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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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