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PNAS paper on Climate Variability and Vector-borne Diseases
It's been a very long process, but work by Robin Thompson (now Oxford), Will Hart (also now Oxford), Alex Kaye, Matt Keeling and collaborators at Fort Collins and UKHSA has finally been published in PNAS: Climate variability amplifies the need for vector-borne disease outbreak preparedness.
We explain that while the average trend of increasing temperatures is going to expand the range of many vector-borne diseases - it is also very important to consider the variability around this trend. Unusually hot summers may lead to vector-borne disease outbreaks in the UK well before predictions based on the average.