The world, especially the global South, has a huge stake in a negotiated end to the 42 month-long conflict between Russia and Ukraine. All eyes were on a favourable outcome of the meeting in Alaska between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. The expectation was that there would be at least an unconditional ceasefire that freezes the conflict that provides space for diplomacy to bring it to an end. That did not happen in Alaska. “There is no deal until there’s a deal” stated Trump somewhat enigmatically, adding that he considered this meeting as “extremely productive”. The truth is that the US President, who promised to end this war in 24 hours, is finding it tough going as a peacemaker. The ball is now in the court of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to “make a deal”. Trump held out the prospect of future meetings with Putin and Zelenskyy—that is slated for Monday—and indicated that the onus for ending the conflict now rested with Kyiv and its European allies.
Why a ceasefire remains elusive
Why has a ceasefire been so elusive? Russia is not keen as it believes it is winning the war. Following a phone call with Trump on March 18, for instance, Putin stopped short of agreeing to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire amidst confusion regarding whether Russia would stop attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as well as civilian facilities. Although Russia has suffered more casualties in Ukraine than in every Soviet and Russian war combined since 1945, it feels it has the upper hand in this conflict as it has secured one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory and its forces are advancing at the fastest rate in the south-east of Ukraine.
Winners, losers, and India’s takeaway
The biggest gainer from the Alaskan summitry is Putin, who received a red carpet welcome by the US President. The Russian leader initiated the joint press conference and astutely played to Trump’s ego that Moscow’s invasion would not have happened on his watch. This was music to the US President’s ears. Russia no doubt sees Trump’s invitation for the meeting as an opportunity to return from the cold. US special envoy Steve Witkoff has spoken of “a possibility to reshape the Russian–US relationship through some compelling commercial opportunities.” Trump has already extracted a payback from Ukraine for US support though securing 50% ownership of Ukraine’s mineral deposits. Kyiv has now to directly negotiate with Moscow—with Trump in attendance—to end the conflict. The task is daunting as Ukraine’s people are not in favour of what Putin really wants.
For India, the biggest takeaway is Trump deciding to send some positive signals on secondary tariff by indicating that the US may not impose it on countries continuing to procure Russian crude oil. There were apprehensions that additional secondary tariffs would have hit India in case the US decided to enforce them. India faces a 50% US tariff—including 25% as “penalty” for buying Russian oil—and therefore had a clear stake in the outcome of the meeting. Though things would become clearer by the end of the month (when the penalty is scheduled to come into effect), the upside for India after the Alaska meeting is that there is no breakdown of engagement between Trump and Putin, with both sides agreeing to meet in Moscow.