8 years in: are small VC funds or big(ger) VC funds performing better?
Drum roll...it's smaller funds.
But there's so much to discuss beyond the headline TVPI (Total Value to Paid-In Capital) multiples. Let's dig into to data first then implications.
𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿
• Net TVPI figures laid out in percentiles (25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th).
• Data is a snapshot of performance as of Q1 2025.
𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗡𝗲𝘁 𝗧𝗩𝗣𝗜
• Funds with $1M-$10M to invest have higher marks at the 90th and 95th percentiles than any other fund size group.
• Between $10M-$25M and $25M-$100M, performance varies. Top decile marks are actually higher at the bigger tier between the two, but it's competitive.
• Funds with over $100M typically have lower top decile marks.
The obvious question is "why don't LPs fund more tiny funds, they outperform". Well, it's pretty tough to invest $100M into 10 funds of $10M each (not least because no one would want to be the ONLY LP in a fund). And of course there are many more $10M funds, so choosing a top decile manager is maybe even harder here!
Beyond that, I think it's under-discussed that emerging manager funds are often in competition with one another. If an LP has $5M to give to the emerging manager space, choosing between a $25M fund and a $50M fund is tricky - and may have very little to do with fund size.
The classic dilemma on fundraising: do we spend time trying to convince an LP to focus on emerging managers AND THEN pick us, or do we narrowly target LPs who are already bought into the emerging manager thesis?
Two final notes:
1) TVPI is not DPI and 8 years is not 12 years. More life to live in this analysis.
2) 75th percentile (aka top quartile) being below 3x across fund sizes after 8 years is...not great.
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#TVPI #venturefunds #venturecapital #smallfunds