The Mercury Group

Wrote today's Energy Daily newsletter on how oil trading has become much more difficult this year (free to read via link). Keen to hear from firms or teams who have actually been doing well understand the trades that worked. Or conversely those that haven't! Drop me a message on here or archiehunter.67 on Signal. I'll also be at APPEC in Singapore next week so do hit me up if you're in town and free to meet. https://lnkd.in/e74VGggf

The threat of US import duties on refined copper, deferred for now, caused a tectonic realignment of physical metal flows. This extended to China, the world's largest buyer, where bonded stocks were raided and shipped to the United States. With Chinese smelters also delivering metal to LME warehouses and Asian consumers, (re)exports are running at record levels this year. China feels the ripple effect of US copper tariff trade: https://lnkd.in/esGEjSYb

In today’s rapidly changing landscape, commodity trade requires resilience, adaptability, and collaboration. Join ITFA and THE Mining Investment Event Summit for an exclusive Podcast & Cocktails evening in #Toronto — bringing together industry leaders to discuss key risks, trends, and opportunities shaping the #mining & #commodities sector. 📅 Date: Thursday, October 9th, 2025 🕔 Time: 5:00 – 8:00 PM ET 📍 Location: TD Securities, 66 Wellington St, Toronto 🎙️ Panel Discussion: “Navigating Volatility: Trends and Risks in Mining & Commodities” A big thank you to TD for generously hosting this event. Please mark the date in your calendar and watch out for further details and registration. Sean Edwards | Lorna Pillow | André Casterman | Chris Hall | Duarte Pedreira | Hernan Mayol | Paul Coles | Sian Aspinall | Silja Calac | Simon Cook | Swaroop N L N | Harp Mann | Brendan Herley | Sanjeev Ganjoo | Anton Posner | Todd Lynady | Nasrin Nourizadeh | Lisa Varney | Azzizza Larsen | Waheeb Rizvi | Peter Clement | Sereen Ahmed | Diogo Figueiroa | Luis Torres | Tedd George | Alexia Vella | Alison Muscat | Duncan Friggieri | Helena Manicaro | Maria Isabel Tapia | Petra O'Connell | Lanika Vella Desira | ITFA Americas (AMRC) | ITFA Middle East

Farmers are expected to harvest one of the largest crops in history in the coming weeks, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The harvest follows several years of bumper crops for farmers, fueling a glut that is driving down commodity prices. Weaker prices are crimping profits and farmers’ ability to stay afloat. 

Trump’s Global Tariffs Found Illegal by US Appeals Court Bloomberg News Erik Larson Zoe Tillman Bob Van Voris Greg Stohr Most of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs were ruled illegal by a federal appeals court that found he exceeded his authority in imposing them, but the judges let the levies stay in place while the case is subject to further review. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit on Friday upheld an earlier ruling by the Court of International Trade that Trump wrongfully invoked an emergency law to issue the tariffs. But the appellate judges sent the case back to the lower court to determine if it applied to everyone affected by tariffs or just the parties involved in the case. Friday’s 7-4 decision by the Federal Circuit could extend the suspense over whether Trump’s tariffs will ultimately stand. The case had been expected to next go to the Supreme Court for a final ruling. The administration could now turn to the justices, who have largely backed the president on other matters. But the White House could also let the Court of International Trade revisit the matter first. #tariffs The White House #trade #law #courts #taxes #tax #markets #globaltrade

⚙️ Shipping & Industrial Metals — Weekly Pulse Shipping – Baltic Dry Index (BDI): ~1,927, down ~1.9% day-over-day and ~5% lower month-over-month. Capesize and Panamax are easing, while Supramax and Handysize stay steady—signaling that agricultural and lighter bulk trades remain resilient, even as iron ore and coal soften. Copper: U.S. inventories are still near 20-year highs, and the CME/LME arbitrage clings to ~$200/ton—well above normal—continuing to puzzle markets as supply imbalances and exchange dislocations persist. a real head scratcher here! Steel & Raw Materials: U.S. finished steel imports in July were 1.686 M net tons, up a modest +1.3% from June—largely unchanged from recent weeks. On the policy side, U.S. Commerce just approved anti-dumping duties on corrosion-resistant steel from 10 countries, targeting ~$2.9B in imports. The duties themselves were higher than market expectations, we will keep our eyes open on how this affects trade. Meanwhile, Indian steelmakers are pressing for a near-sevenfold increase in their met-coke import quota amid severe domestic shortages. These developments are reshaping global trade dynamics. Aluminum: Tariffs remain at 50%, flipping the import equation. Rio Tinto has shifted strategy—now buying at least 50,000 tons of aluminum ingots from U.S. competitors like Alcoa and Emirates Global Aluminum to bypass tariffs - even buying back from traders that had stock built up from Rio itself! What it means: 📦 Bulk freight softens in heavy segments, but lighter trades hold steady. 🔌 Copper arbitrage remains stubbornly high—highlighting structural market divides. 🏗️ Steel suppliers face supply shocks and protectionist shifts from both the U.S. and India. 🛠️ Aluminum sourcing is adapting fast—tariffs are forcing new domestic procurement strategies, how sustainable is that? Stay tuned At The Mercury Group, we don’t just move the cargo—we read the market pulse so you stay ahead of the curve. For more insights, subscribe to our newsletter or reach out to talk shop. #Commodities #SupplyChainManagement #Steel #Copper #Aluminum #Shipping