MoneyShow

After weeks of noise in DC and jitters on Wall Street, the Fed played it safe with a 25-point cut—no surprises. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s blockbuster $5B chip deal with Intel sent its stock up 30%. Plus, with IPOs wobbling (Stubhub stumbled) and Q3 earnings season fast-approaching, the next big market moves could be coming soon. Are you watching the right signals? 

American States Water (AWR) offers investors stability, policy support, and one of the longest dividend growth streaks in the market. Here’s the scoop: 🔹 Operates water/electric utilities in California plus holds long-term military contracts. 🔹 71 straight years of dividend hikes, a phenomenal track record. 🔹 Growth aided by rate approvals, but capex/dilution may weigh on EPS. 🔗 Full story in the comments below.

The Fed delivered a 25 bp rate cut, citing rising employment risks while downplaying inflation, and the dot plot now signals three cuts for 2025-early 2026. Here’s what you need to know: 👉 Fed flagged weaker jobs and higher unemployment, with inflation still elevated. 👉 Rate forecast now 3.6%, implying three cuts. 👉 Outlook: GDP to 1.6%, unemployment at 4.5%, core PCE of 3.1%. 🔗 Full breakdown in the comments below.

Stocks keep climbing even as the economy cools, reminding us that market earnings drivers differ from GDP growth. Here’s what we know: 👉 GDP is 70% services, while S&P 500 earnings are more balanced. 👉 US stocks lead on earnings growth vs. Europe’s multiple-driven gains. 👉 Past rallies like this averaged +18% gains a year later. 🔗 Full story in the comments below.

Mining stocks are heating up fast, with junior names doubling or tripling, and even bigger gains could lie ahead. Here’s what’s happening: 🔸 Gold’s bull run may reach $6K–$8K, higher if monetary shifts hit. 🔸 Junior silver miners and “optionality plays” hold big upside. 🔸 Exploration stocks are positioned to ride the next leg up. 🔗 Full breakdown in the comments below.

Momentum trading can deliver powerful gains in bull markets, but it’s also one of the riskiest strategies when sentiment shifts. Here’s the scoop: 👉 Stocks can rise further, but reversals hit hard. 👉 Success relies on timing, psychology, and discipline. 👉 Use stop-losses, keep positions small, and exit fast. 🔗 Full story in the comments below.

Market concentration is not a crash warning, but rather a sign that history often turns such periods into times of stronger and more durable gains for investors. Here’s what stands out: 👉 Top 10 S&P firms comprise 40% of the index, but that’s roughly in line with their 32.5% earnings share. 👉 Q2 EPS growth was 25% for top 10 vs. 8% for the rest. 👉 Weak breadth (29% beating SPX) has historically preceded ~15% gains. 🔗 Read more in the comments below.

The Fed is set to announce its next move, and the yield curve already shows how much the market has shifted in a year. Here’s what you need to know: 🔹 In Sept. 2024 (red), the curve was deeply inverted. 🔹 By Sept. 2025 (blue), short-term yields had dropped sharply. 🔹 Long-term yields (10Y–30Y) are now equal to or above short-term. 🔗 Full breakdown in the comments below.

Markets are holding steady ahead of today’s Fed decision. 🔹 Traders fully expect a 25 bp cut, with a slim chance of 50 🔹 Powell and the Fed shift focus from tariffs to labor weakness 🔹 Mortgage rates dip below 6.4%, boosting refi activity 🔹 Workday pops on Elliott stake, $5B buyback, and $1.1B AI deal Investors are bracing for one of the strangest Fed meetings in years. Read more below.

A historical study of the S&P 500 shows one thing clearly: markets spend far more time near record highs than in deep crashes – reminding us of their resilience. What’s happening? 🔹 Since 1950, SPX has been near highs more often than in crashes. 🔹 Selling early often forces investors to chase momentum. 🔹 Despite turmoil, US stocks averaged ~8% annual returns. 🔗 Read more in the comments below.