The actions to mitigate and reverse the global loss of biodiversity are known and science has analysed their effects. Let's understand three global scenarios and their consequences for biodiversity! Schipper et al. (2020)'s "Projecting Terrestrial Biodiversity Intactness with GLOBIO 4" is one of several peer-reviewed papers which has modelled how changes in pressures on biodiversity could help bend the curve of biodiversity loss. 📖 Methodology - 3 scenarios modelled between 2015-2050 with the GLOBIO pressure-impact model - focused on plant and warm-blooded vertebrates (birds & mammals) - pressures covered: land use, climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, habitat fragmentation, road disturbance and hunting 📈 Lessons learnt ➡️ "Sustainability" scenario - Assumptions: Low population growth, low growth in consumption (-33% animal product consumption, less food waste), expansion of protected area networks, increased productivity of agriculture, and climate change limited to 2°C - The loss of ecosystem condition is limited to "only" 2%, which is still roughly equivalent to 2.5 million km2 of pristine habitat (100% MSA) being converted to artificial areas (0% MSA) ➡️ "Regional rivalry" scenario - Assumptions: High population growth, resource-intensive consumption, low agricultural productivity and continued deforestation, moderate level of climate change - 6% loss of ecosystem condition, equivalent to the total surface of Australia ➡️ "Fossil-fuelled development" scenario - Assumptions: Low population growth, strong economic growth, consumption-oriented and energy-intensive , high agricultural productivity, high level of climate change - 5% of loss of ecosystem condition 🤔 What to make of it? We need to switch to plant-based products, especially for food. That does not mean forfeiting meat entirely, but consumption has to be reduced. All the scenarios without less animal-products consumption lead to sharp decline of biodiversity. We also need to act on all drivers of biodiversity loss, and ensure synergies between climate and biodiversity policies. 💬 How to translate this to a corporate policy? BioInt can help!
Great job you dit. Tks
Which scenario are we currently heading towards with our actions and inactions in your opinion? Really great to see them explained in this clear way.
CEO at BioInt | Transforming biodiversity impact & dependency measurement | Driving pragmatic & science-based actions for nature | The Biodiversity Footprint Intelligence Company | Views are my own
8moLink to the original article which we summarized: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.14848 Thanks Gabrielle Casteigts for this summary! If you liked this content, you may be interested by its translation into a ranking of countries most impacting biodiversity: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7287378056833347585/