Bosses say RTO, workers say no

JPMorgan Chase, Amazon, Disney, Google. Company after company has ordered employees to return to the office full-time. Which means workers are grumpily packing their laptop bags and digging their hard pants out from the bottom of the closet, right? You could be forgiven for thinking that return to office mandates mean tons of employees are returning to offices. But recent data suggests that a whole lot of people are responding to RTO mandates differently. They’re ignoring them. https://lnkd.in/dqATkgE5

https://lnkd.in/e5xbyuEZ Gee...really? Who *didn't* see this coming?! RTO is dead and companies need to drop the obstinacy, period.

Interesting article. Not hard to imagine that one criteria for making cuts could be “who has ignored the return to work directive?” https://lnkd.in/gQDEFBA6

https://lnkd.in/e5xbyuEZ Gee...really? Who *didn't* see this coming?! RTO is dead and companies need to drop the obstinacy, period.

Our latest work is now published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)! The full paper is available here: https://lnkd.in/diSqSxmx

Please... The New Normal is here. Argue with data, but work is distributed. Distributed work requires flexible systems. Flexible systems are more than choosing which day you come in. As Nick Bloom shares below, can we please turn the conversation to something more productive? You know, like how we make this work?

New July 2025 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on the Global Persistence of Work From Home. Summary: 1) Paper surveys 42,938 full-time college educated workers across the Americas, Europe, Africa and Asia in 2022, 2023 and 2024/25. 2) Finds WFH rates fell from 2022 to 2023, but then stabilized through 2025. 3) This stabilization has occurred across all regions, industries, genders and ages. This matches data showing US WFH levels stabilized after 2023. 4) There are variations in WFH levels. WFH is highest in North America, UK, Australia & NZ, middle in Europe, and lowest in Latin America, Africa and Asia. We are firmly in the new normal on WFH. Hopefully, we can now move on to other topics, like debating the impact of AI on the future of work. with Cevat Giray Aksoy, Jose Maria Barrero, Steven J. Davis, Mathias Dolls and Pablo Zarate

💡 The Return To Office Reality Check: What July 2025 Data Reveals About RTO Mandates The workforce data coming out this month tells a story that's hard to ignore. RTO mandates aren't delivering promised results. 📊 Current Employment Crisis Context: College graduate unemployment hit 5.8% - highest since 2021. Entry-level tech hiring dropped 25% as companies prioritize experienced workers. The stock market's 422-point drop signals economic uncertainty, yet companies are making workplace decisions that could accelerate talent loss. What Data Reveals About RTO Impact: Geographic Hiring Restrictions RTO mandates eliminated access to 75-80% of potential candidates. While competitors tap global talent pools, RTO companies fish in shallow local waters. Talent Retention Crisis Organizations with rigid office requirements experience higher turnover among strongest performers - opposite of intended outcomes. Productivity Measurement Disconnect Measurable productivity gains happen at companies using results-based evaluation, not presence-based management. The Economic Reality: With economic uncertainty and AI displacing entry-level positions, forcing experienced professionals back to commute-based work feels strategically backwards. What Smart Companies Measure: ✅ Output quality over office time ✅ Client satisfaction regardless of location ✅ Innovation metrics from distributed teams ✅ Talent acquisition speed and quality ✅ Employee retention in competitive markets Geographic Arbitrage Factor: Remote-first companies access top talent from lower-cost markets while maintaining competitive salaries. RTO companies pay premium local wages for smaller talent pools. The Numbers: Remote workers report higher satisfaction Location flexibility fills positions 40% faster Geographic diversity improves problem-solving Strategic Implications: In markets where 25% fewer entry-level positions exist and college graduates face record unemployment, restricting talent pools through location requirements compounds hiring challenges. Winning Strategy: Focus on results, not presence. Companies thriving evolved management practices instead of reverting to pre-2020 models. Data-Driven Approach: Measure what matters. If you can't quantify business value of mandatory office time, you're making emotion-based decisions in a data-driven market. The workforce changed fundamentally. Companies adapting capture the best talent while competitors debate where people should sit. 💡 What workforce data are you tracking to inform location policies? 💭 #WorkforceData #RemoteWork #TalentStrategy #DataDrivenDecisions