How to predict project delays with 80% accuracy

View profile for Chris Mielke, PMP, CSM

Senior Project Management Professional driving on-time, within-budget & high-quality project closure

I can usually predict project delays 3 months in advance. With startling accuracy. Here are some dead giveaways: Red flag #1: "We'll figure out the requirements as we go" Guaranteed 4-week delay. Red flag #2: "This is just a rough estimate" Add 50% to whatever timeline they give you. Red flag #3: "The stakeholder is traveling but we can start without them" Prepare for complete rework. Red flag #4: "We've done something similar before" No, you haven't. Add 6 weeks. Red flag #5: "We'll just use the existing system" That system doesn't do what you think it does. It's like a demented game of Chutes and Ladders. Most project managers see delays as surprises. I see them as symptoms. Symptoms of poor planning. Unclear requirements. Unrealistic expectations. The delays aren't the problem. The preparation is the problem. Want to avoid delays? Stop starting projects that aren't ready to start. Most "urgent" projects can wait 2 weeks for proper planning. Most projects that are "ready to go!" aren't ready at all.

Chris Mielke, PMP, CSM

Senior Project Management Professional driving on-time, within-budget & high-quality project closure

1w

Documenting the project giving you a headache? Turn it over to AI. https://theaipoweredprojectmanager.substack.com/p/i-turned-documentation-disasters

M Usman Arshad

Commercial Project Leadership in Mineral Exploration | Driving Strategic Growth | Global Collaboration | Product Management Enthusiast

1w

Chris Mielke, PMP, CSM, Simply brilliant. Red flag # 4 is often misinterpreted as an organizational asset and used as a blind template to jump into similar projects. The problem is, relying too heavily on past experiences makes you assume too much, hoping things will work the same. In that process, small risks get overlooked under a false sense of optimism, and the project can fail before it even starts.  It is like marriage: every marriage is the same, but each one is lived differently.

Ana Maseeb

Director @ Resilinc | AI Strategy & Ops Leader | LLM + No-Code Transformation | Automation | Supply Chain | EdTech | Ex-Coursera | Ex-Cvent

1w

Completely and wholeheartedly agree with you, Chris! A lot of times the risks are not outlined clearly and even shown as just an appendix. Ideally, they should be a part of the plan and each risk should be tied to the amount of delay/obstruction it would cause. This allows to accurately measure the impending delays and also the mitigations that can be put in place so these delays can not only be projected but completely avoided. Also, of course optimum planning should have realistic timelines.

Federica Scanavini

Project Management | Digital Marketing

1w

Thanks very insightful! Another red flag I heard: “we still have plenty of time” - this predicts last minute panick attacks and delays

Selva Praveen Elango

Project Manager (PMP®, CSM) | Data Analytics, Digital Transformation & Agile Program Leadership | 12+ yrs Driving Global High-Impact Delivery

5d

I’ve learned the hard way: projects don’t suddenly get delayed, they’re delayed the day someone says ‘we’ll figure it out as we go.’ Red flags aren’t surprises — they’re spoilers. Ignore them, and you’re not managing a project, you’re just scheduling rework

Brad Miller

Data Center & IT Infrastructure Program/Project Management, delivering impactful change

1w

The companies that truly appreciate the value a seasoned PM offers, generally also have invested in team development, system upgrades and the time it takes to establish workable (repeatable) processes. Your view shows the wisdom of experience. Thanks for sharing.

Amir Muhammad

Senior Lead - Real Estate & Facilities Business Analyst | Business Operations

1w

👍

Nathan Portnoy, PMP

PMP-Certified Program Manager | Program Leadership • Business Development | Known for “Get in the Boat” Leadership, Customer Trust & Growth | Active Secret Clearance

1w

My favorite!! Red flag #4: "We've done something similar before" No, you haven't. Add 6 weeks.

Christopher Whaley, PMP

Project Management Professional | Healthcare Ops | Veteran Leader | Wrestling Coach |

1w

Spot on! 100% relatable to just about every project manager. Thanks for the share

Esosa Agbonifo PMP, CSM

Senior Project Manager | 10+ Years in IT Consulting I Enterprise-Wide Transformations | Digital Expert I Stakeholder Management

1w

I surely can relate with #4! 😅

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