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We’ve built our futures around end-states: 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3–4 °C worlds. Useful—until you realise they all smuggle in one hidden assumption: continuity. That our political, economic, and civic systems will hold together long enough to deliver whichever pathway we choose. That assumption has broken. The defining condition of this century is not the destination, but the volatility of the path. Overlapping shocks, chronic drifts, accelerating fragilities. Fragilities that, in a resource-constrained world, are no longer incidental—they are weaponisable assets in zero-sum competition. This dissolves the very idea of “event resilience.” The task is no longer to recover from one crisis at a time, but to build systemic resilience in volatility: the capacity to cohere when shocks compound, when probabilities—not certainties—are the terrain of governance. This reframes the role of state, municipalities, local authorities: from funding one-off recovery to building continuous buffers, portfolios, and legitimacy infrastructures that can hold coherence through turbulence. The measure of success is not control, but coherence. Fuller argumentation… https://lnkd.in/eZqkp5Vp Thoughts welcome
