Fulcrum Macro Advisors Weekend Reads: De-Risking Supply Chains, Stablecoins, and Tariffs

Latin America Can De-Risk Semiconductor Supply Chains, Why Russian-Indian Relations Have Remained Steady, and Why Tariffs Led to the More Demand for Stablecoins Went Up and Less for the Dollar. All this in Fulcrum Macro Advisors Recommended Weekend Reads.

🚨🌏 Semiconductor War: A New Front Opens 🚨⚡ The global tech rivalry has entered a sharper phase. On September 13, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce unveiled two landmark probes aimed squarely at the U.S. semiconductor sector: 🔹 Anti-Dumping Investigation → Targeting American-made analog ICs (Texas Instruments, Analog Devices). These “workhorse chips” handle power regulation, signal amplification, and sensor interfaces — indispensable in EVs, 5G, smartphones, medical imaging, and industrial systems. 🔹 Anti-Discrimination Probe → Accusing Washington of using export controls, Section 301 measures, and the entity list to suppress China’s semiconductor and AI industry. This move comes just after the U.S. added 23 more Chinese firms to its restricted entity list, tightening the choke on advanced AI accelerators and critical semiconductor equipment. 🕊️ Diplomatic Backdrop The timing is no accident. Probes were launched days before key trade talks in Madrid between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng. On the agenda: semiconductors, tariffs, national security, money laundering, and even the fate of TikTok (valued at ~$500B). ⚙️ Why Analog ICs Are Strategic Unlike GPUs, HBM, or cutting-edge logic, analog ICs are mature-node technologies. Yet they are the nervous system of electronics, linking digital brains to the real world. By targeting analog chips, China strikes: 1️⃣ In an area where domestic substitution is realistic. 2️⃣ At U.S. firms that still dominate global analog markets. 3️⃣ Without jeopardizing its own access to bleeding-edge AI hardware. 📉 Implications for Industry & Policy 1️⃣ U.S. suppliers: Facing pricing pressure, tariffs, and reduced access to the world’s largest electronics market. 2️⃣ Chinese legacy chipmakers: Likely to benefit from policy tailwinds, gaining share in PMICs, driver ICs, and power management solutions. 3️⃣ Global supply chains: Even “safe” mature-node chips are no longer immune — fragmentation risk grows. 4️⃣ Allies & Partners: Japan, South Korea, and the EU may soon be forced to define their stance in this widening chip battlefield. 🔮 Wider Context This escalation follows a pattern: the U.S. restricts China’s access to advanced AI accelerators (Nvidia, AMD), licenses even mid-range AI chips as bargaining tools, while China responds with trade probes and domestic substitution strategies. 💡 Conclusion The semiconductor conflict is no longer confined to cutting-edge HPC. It now includes the essential building blocks of modern electronics. The “chip war” has broadened into a systemic contest with global economic, industrial, and political consequences. #Semiconductors #Geopolitics #China #USA #ChipsWar #AI #Technology #TradeWar #AnalogIC #TexasInstruments #AnalogDevices #GlobalTrade #SupplyChain #NationalSecurity #Innovation Original Article: The Straits Times https://lnkd.in/dmDffh4s

https://lnkd.in/dHTv7mm6 Building the Pipeline: Why China Exports AI Infrastructure, Not Semiconductors The success of China’s semiconductor exports hinges on its ability to not just fulfill but also to generate demand for chips across the Global South. By Ho Ting (Bosco) Hung and Moritz von Knebel September 01, 2025

The mainstream media focuses its semiconductor coverage on AI chips, but there is another semiconductor area in which China is on the verge of "winning:" foundational chips. These simple chips are in almost anything electronic. This essay by Alasdair Phillips-Robins examines how the US has ceded this market and proposes a tariff regime to address the issue. I don't think it will work, as the financial penalty is not large enough, and it is a single point rather than a comprehensive approach. What is needed is a US strategy to decouple from economic reliance on adversaries. Chips and China would be components of such a strategy. However, an "only America first" approach to strategic decoupling is impractical and economically unwise. I don't have much hope for a rational approach from the US on this issue. #nationalsecurity #foreignpolicy #semiconductors #decoupling #china #ai

"The transatlantic trade deal promises $40 billion in European purchases of American artificial intelligence chips. Significant gaps remain." Pablo Chavez outlines that the US-EU $40 billion chip deal lacks binding mechanisms for funding and timelines, raising concerns about its practical implementation. While it presents an image of collaboration, key details regarding security commitments and supply guarantees remain provisional, potentially limiting the deal's effectiveness and raising questions about future compliance and operational realities. #TechPol Read More: https://lnkd.in/euFTGU5g

When Silicon Chips Become Inscribed into the National Narrative When Trump wrote on social media, "The United States now fully owns and controls 10% of Intel," it not only shook the capital markets, but also seemed to chill the air. A silicon chip should be the crystallization of rationality—the orderly dance of electron transitions, logic gates, and transistors. However, when placed on the chessboard of nations, it ceases to be simply technology and becomes synonymous with power, strategy, and security. 🔹 The Hand of the State Reaches the Market This 10% may not be a large number, but it is enough to change perceptions. It serves as a reminder that tech companies are no longer just businesses but "national treasures." 🔹 The Blurred Boundary Between Capital and Sovereignty When the logic of the free market meets the logic of national security, are we witnessing a new kind of capitalism? Here, shares are not investments, but banners. 🔹 Questions for the Future Does this foreshadow the partial "nationalization" of more strategic enterprises? Or was a single announcement enough to shake up the world's imagination of the future? 💭 Perhaps we need to rethink this: Silicon chips don't just power computing; they're also driving the reshaping of the world order. And it all started with a single statement from one person on a social media platform. https://lnkd.in/eB37UQ9w

AI chips could make up half the semiconductor market by 2028. Take-aways from Deloitte’s 2025 Semiconductor Outlook (report + video): 1️⃣ AI chips could reach $400B by 2028 — about half of the projected $800B global chip market. 2️⃣ Today’s AI demand is mostly text processing in data centers, but the real compute surge will come from edge devices — robots and systems interpreting video and images in real time. 3️⃣ The hardest challenge may not be fabs or materials, but the talent pipeline needed for onshoring and friend-shoring. Here’s the full report/video: https://lnkd.in/gmtCjYMD

The success of China’s semiconductor exports hinges on its ability to not just fulfill but also to generate demand for chips across the Global South.

China’s Ministry of Commerce Launches Anti-Discrimination Investigation into U.S. IC Measures On September 13, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced the launch of an anti-discrimination investigation into U.S. measures targeting China’s integrated circuit (IC) sector. The investigation follows the U.S.’s ongoing restrictions, including Section 301 investigations and export controls, which are seen as discriminatory actions aimed at stifling China’s advancements in high-tech industries like AI and semiconductor development. The Ministry emphasizes that these measures harm both China’s interests and the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain. Based on the investigation results, China will take necessary countermeasures. The Ministry also invites affected stakeholders, including both domestic and international businesses, to participate in the investigation, assuring a fair and transparent process. China remains committed to defending its companies’ rights and interests.

Taiwanese tech firms are ramping up investment in Texas, targeting artificial intelligence demand and adapting to U.S. tariffs. Backed by Taipei’s push for local supply chains, companies like GlobalWafers, Wistron and Inventec are anchoring a new wave of semiconductor and electronics manufacturing in the U.S. South. https://lnkd.in/egJY34wj