Leonhard Gandhi’s Post

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Wissenschaftler bei Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE

🔍 𝐆𝐫𝐢𝐝 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐏𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐚 𝐁𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐨𝐮𝐭 – 𝐀𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐥 𝟐𝟖, 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓 🕛 Update: Timeline from 12:00 to 12:34 CEST 📊 Frequency data (100 ms) from Gridradar (Porto & Málaga) and Energy-Charts.info (Freiburg) Over the past days, I’ve analyzed and refined the blackout timeline using synchronized 100 ms grid frequency measurements. ⚠️ 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐎𝐛𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬: 𝟏. 𝐅𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐎𝐬𝐜𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭 (12:03–12:08) - Dominant mode: 𝟎.𝟔𝟑𝟓 𝐇𝐳 - Strong 𝐩𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐥𝐞 between Porto and Málaga - 𝐀𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐞 highest in Porto - See my initial post on this event here: https://lnkd.in/emXS8vGa 𝟐. 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝐎𝐬𝐜𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭 (12:19–12:22) - Dominant mode: 𝟎.𝟐𝟏𝟓 𝐇𝐳 - This time, 𝐌á𝐥𝐚𝐠𝐚 shows the larger amplitude - Very similar to a previous event in 2016: https://lnkd.in/erjbVNxV 𝟑. 𝐌𝐚𝐣𝐨𝐫 𝐆𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐋𝐨𝐬𝐬 at 𝟏𝟐:𝟐𝟗:𝟓𝟎 - Estimated: ~𝟔𝟓𝟎 𝐌𝐖 - No significant interregional frequency differences observed 𝟒. 𝐀𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐝 𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭 (12:32:57.2) - Approx. 𝟓𝟎 𝐌𝐖 loss - Captured clearly in the frequency trace - Confirmed here (in Spanish: https://lnkd.in/eSMzm4eN) 𝟓. 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭: 𝐋𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐨𝐂𝐨𝐅 𝐒𝐩𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐏𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐨 - Just before the end of the timeframe, Porto's dataset reveals a near -𝟐 𝐇𝐳/𝐬 𝐑𝐨𝐂𝐨𝐅 - Confirms earlier speculation that 𝐑𝐨𝐂𝐨𝐅 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐛𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐲 𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐝 during large system disturbances 🧠 Special thanks to Luis Badesa, Marta Victoria, and Steve Sommerville for the stimulating discussions and valuable contributions. Do you have any other ideas or data for the event? If yes, please feel free to share! You can download the 100-ms sample of my own measurements here under CC BY 4.0 license: https://lnkd.in/ezEX9CSk #GridFrequency #IberianBlackout #Apagon #RoCoF #PowerSystemDynamics #EnergyTransition #EnergyCharts

Oke Adebayo Olayinka

Automation and Mechatronics|Cybernetics|Intelligent Systems|Electromobility|Power Electronics|Renewable Energy|Electromagnetics|Robotics and Control Algorithms Researcher.

4mo

Was Frieburg, DE also affected?

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Hi Leonhard Thank you very much for sharing your analysis/data. I'm curious how you calculated K, or if you found it published somewhere. I couldn’t find it, but I reached the same value as you by using approximated data from the total European TSO K value (coming from ENTSO-E) and applying the percentage for Spain. FYI ~50 Mhz (1st loss of generation), and ~100 MHz (2nd loss of generation) would align with a statement made by a representative of the Spanish photovoltaic industry regarding generation power loss. Just in case it might be interesting, this is my analysis from a couple of days ago, that contains references and data https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/technical-yet-accessible-guide-spains-blackout-week-1-santamarta-eaadf

Andrew W. Thompson

Energy Economist at The Brattle Group

4mo

Great additional analysis and insights thank you! Two questions: 1.) Do you have a good view on what this ~0.6 HZ from 1 could be? We've seen the 0.2 HZ before in Europe so that's not new. 2.) How did you calculate the estimate of 650 MW for the initial gen loss for 3? If this is accurate and it was definitely a single plant, that would imply that the first gen loss was a CCGT, and not PV as many have been claiming.

Dr. David Ulrich Ziegler

Independent consultant in cyber-physical utility systems

4mo

Hi Leonhard Probst , thanks for the nice summary. Why the phase angle difference is once 0° and once roughly 30° at 12:33:16 ?

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Do I understand you correctly: the 650MW loss is a calculated value, Not one taken from - potentially erroneous- REE data?

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Andrew Larkins

Chief Executive Officer at Sygensys

4mo

Thanks for the analysis. For me most interesting data presented is the plot of relative phase angle vs time on page 3. It is an interestingly smooth curve. Is this based on the difference between two PMU phase measurements (if so at what sample rate) or has it been derived by other means?

Jorge Antonio González Sánchez

R&D-ENERGY-DISTRICT HEATING-BIOMASS-PARTICLEBOARD-MDF-PLYWOOD-FURNITURE-SAWMILL-PALLET BLOCKS-PELLET-PHOTOVOLTAIC-CHP-COGENERATION-ETS CO2-CARBON CAPTURE-HYDROGEN-E-FUELS-E-METHANOL-P2X-POWER MONITORING-IOT

4mo

Leonhard Probst thanks for sharing. Two questions from my side: -Looks like Spain doesn't recover at all from the frequency drop in the first loss at 12:32:57?? -Looks like Portugal RoCoF is higher after the loss of the FR-ES interconection meaning higher loss of generation before Spain??

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Plamen Popov

Freelance consultant Electricity markets and Large interconnected power systems

4mo

Excellent new input. Thanks! Clearly damping of oscillation during 2nd event have been more efficient. i.e. PSSs at the rotating generators "know" and react better to 0.21Hz. The 1st event is different, and contains something new, perhaps very local or the Iberia system composition at that moment. We will definitely understand more when we see some records of the active power flows and voltage profile.

The map below shows a time-frequency analysis of the grid frequency in Freiburg (D), based on the 100 ms sampled data, kindly made available in the post. A 10-minute slice of a filtered signal was analyzed, centered on the main event. The colors on the map represent the absolute intensity of the frequency oscillations. The blue contours overlaid on the map highlight the local dominance. A rising trace appears during the 3 minutes preceding the blackout, which could suggest the onset of a frequency drift somewhere (but it could also be an artifact of the DIY tool used for this analysis). In any case, it could be interesting to repeat the same analysis on a frequency signal captured in the Iberian Peninsula. Any suggestions on how to get this data?

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