"Questioning the setup: H1 2025's unusual rally and cautionary notes"

Bonds are becoming increasingly less desirable. It looks like the market has spoken, nobody wants long-dated bonds anymore. The UK couldn’t even sell its own 30-year paper, and in the U.S., the real buyers are increasingly just the Fed, hedge funds in the Caymans, and multinationals domiciled in Ireland. That’s not free-market demand, it’s debt being recycled through loopholes. As we can see, and what China and Russia have been doing for years now, is the market moving that capital into gold. Central banks are increasingly getting closer to holding more gold than U.S. Treasuries, signalling a broad shift away from sovereign promises. Investors no longer trust or want government IOUs. But gold is just stage one. It can’t scale, can’t move quickly, and still depends on custody and trust. Eventually, Bitcoin will be looked at to solve these problems as trust decreases and built for a world where governments dilute bonds and weaponise currencies. The real story isn’t “gold flipping Treasuries.” It’s capital rejecting sovereign guarantees. A tale as old as time.

https://invst.ly/1cn6cs So whilst the US 30 Year Bond doesn't seem to be softening, the buying seems to be from other sources. The outlook for metals must surely remain in place. Impact for the USD ZAR is likely to be limited, but the currency is at it's 1-year best trading level of R17.19, and appears poised to break R17.00. It is never a single event, but often a confluence of factors.

The “debasement trade” has become the latest flashpoint narrative of the current macro cycle, though the label doesn’t quite capture what’s happening IMHO. What’s unfolding is less about debasement and more about asset revaluation, or a repricing of monetary alternatives in response to structural fiscal and policy realities that can no longer be ignored. The first rate cut in September, followed by growing expectations of further easing, has come at a time when fiscal conditions remain deeply expansionary. In the US and elsewhere, debt servicing now consumes an unprecedented share of public spending, and inflation expectations have settled at levels inconsistent with long-term price stability. This alignment of loose money and structural deficits has given rise to a quiet form of fiscal dominance, one that gradually changes how investors think about store-of-value assets. That shift is visible across the hard-asset complex. Driven by record central bank demand, this week saw gold cross the $4,000 mark for the first time just at a time that silver broke above $50 for the first time since 2011 (and breaching the neckline to complete the cup & handle dating back to 1980, as per the chart). Adjusted for inflation, silver still sits about $19 below its 2011 high and nearly $95 below the 1980 peak, which places this year’s rally into clearer perspective. These moves are less about short-term enthusiasm than they are a repricing of tangible assets relative to the expanding supply of fiat liquidity. Bitcoin’s place in this environment is evolving as well. Deutsche Bank has suggested that #Bitcoin could appear on central bank balance alongside gold by 2030, a projection that would have sounded improbable not long ago but now fits comfortably within the trajectory of policy and institutional behaviour. In other words, as monetary systems adapt to enduring fiscal pressure, the assets that exist outside those constraints are beginning to attract a different kind of attention. Viewed together, gold, silver, and Bitcoin illustrate how the 'revaluation trade' is unfolding across different asset classes and investor profiles. Each reflects the same underlying recalibration of trust, liquidity, and scarcity that defines this new phase of the market cycle. #Macro #Gold #Silver #DigitalAssets

So this is interesting - Gold is up 30% in two months… This is the biggest rally we’ve seen since 1979. Gold has historically been a safe haven during volatile times. The past two years, we’ve seen retail investors, institutional investors, and Central Banks pile into gold — and more importantly, continue to pile into gold even at historically high prices. This wasn’t a one time hedge, it’s an ongoing process of building a substantial position. And there’s a lot of fear across the board — AI bubble discourse, record level government debt across most developed countries, threats to Federal Reserve independence, etc. This ties into the so-called Debasement Trade that’s gained a lot of traction the past several months, where you sell the currency or the debt of a particular government, and you buy gold or silver or crypto. The Debasement Trade comes with a strong inflationary backdrop, worrying that the only way out of the exploding budget deficits is by inflating the debt away — i.e debasing it. These currency fears also explain why Central Banks are so intently purchasing gold. Emerging markets want to move away from a US-dollar denominated system. The trust in the dollar as the global reserve does appear to be fading. The People’s Bank of China is now on an 11-month streak of purchasing gold AND they’re looking to become custodians of bullion for other countries, a role that’s primarily held by London and New York. We’re moving toward a more multi-polar world, where the idea of a single dominant currency might be taking a backseat.

💰 The Financial System Isn’t Just Breaking — It’s Being Rewritten 💰 Matthew Piepenburg, author of Rigged to Fail, calls it a “Stalingrad moment” for the global economy. With $300 trillion in global debt — almost equal to global GDP — we’re not facing a simple recession. We’re witnessing the slow-motion collapse of a debt-based system held together by money printing and currency debasement. 📉 Fiat currencies are losing credibility. Every round of stimulus and QE dilutes purchasing power, erodes savings, and widens inequality. Meanwhile, central banks — who once trusted US treasuries — are now quietly hoarding gold. Why? Because gold doesn’t default, doesn’t inflate, and doesn’t rely on promises. ⛓️ Gold and silver aren’t “old-school” assets anymore — they’re insurance policies against systemic failure. 🔑 Key Takeaways from Piepenburg’s Warning: The US dollar’s purchasing power is melting like an ice cube. Gold could reach $5,000/oz, not from hype — but from policy failure. Silver, often dubbed the “smart man’s gold,” remains massively undervalued. Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) may be the next control mechanism in a dying fiat world. History is clear: sound money always reclaims its place when confidence collapses. As professionals in tech, finance, and economics, we often discuss disruption — but perhaps the biggest disruption ahead isn’t in AI or blockchain... …it’s in money itself. Now is the time to diversify, hedge, and understand what real value looks like. #Gold #Silver #DebtCrisis #USDollar #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicReset #WealthPreservation #Investing #Finance #GlobalEconomy #MatthewPiepenburg

The money illusion isn’t new, it’s resurfacing. The question is whether our faith in fiat survives the decade. For decades people assumed money was stable because prices moved slowly. That illusion held until it didn’t. Now the headlines sound familiar again. Gold near record highs, Bitcoin climbing, and financial media finally talking about “debasement” as if it were a discovery. But this story is older than any chart. Every few generations a monetary system wears out its credibility. Governments expand balance sheets, debt piles up, and the world quietly reprices trust itself. The last big shift came in 1971 when the dollar detached from gold. We may be watching another slow transition, this time not away from metal but away from the belief that money always holds value on its own. Faith in currency doesn’t vanish overnight, it erodes one policy decision at a time. That is why diversification is not about chasing returns, it is about staying solvent when the rules of money begin to change. According to the IMF, the share of global reserves held in U.S. dollars has dropped from about 72 percent in 1999 to roughly 58 percent today. Stress-test your plan’s liquidity runway. Regimes change quietly, then suddenly. Educational only. Not legal, tax, or investment advice.

🔎 What Happens If the U.S. Defaults on Its Debt? Market Impacts Explained With discussions about the U.S. debt ceiling intensifying, it’s critical to understand what a default could actually mean for the financial world. Here’s a quick breakdown: 📉 Stock Markets: A U.S. default could trigger a massive selloff—analysts predict declines of 25–45% as investors panic and global confidence evaporates. The “risk-free” status of U.S. Treasuries is the foundation of modern finance; if shaken, all equity markets—U.S. and international alike—would feel the pain as borrowing costs rise and liquidity vanishes. 🪙 Crypto Markets: The crypto sector could experience a wild ride. Initial liquidity crunches might cause sharp volatility, but longer-term, Bitcoin and stablecoins could benefit as digital assets are seen as alternatives to unstable fiat currencies. The stablecoin market, for example, could balloon as investors search for digital safe havens. 💵 Fiat Currencies: The U.S. dollar would likely weaken as investors rush to diversify into other assets like gold, the euro, or even the yuan. A loss of faith in the dollar could accelerate the “de-dollarization” trend globally and put more strain on other fiat systems, potentially driving up inflation and interest rates worldwide. The bottom line: A U.S. debt default wouldn’t just be a domestic issue—it would be a catalyst for global financial turbulence, creating long-lasting shifts in where investors place their trust and how capital flows across the world. #Finance #Economy #DebtCeiling #StockMarket #Crypto #Investing #USDebt #LinkedInInsights

There’s a curious theory doing the rounds in financial circles. Foreign governments are no longer the financiers of US debt they once were. China and Japan have cut their treasury holdings, while central banks are moving into gold and other hard assets, a shift accelerated after Russia’s reserves were frozen during the Ukraine war. But America’s deficits aren’t shrinking. Someone still needs to buy that debt.  Enter stablecoins. Every token minted is backed by short-term treasuries. With $300 billion in circulation, this demand is anything but trivial. Tether alone now holds $125 billion — making it a top-20 holder of US debt. Critics say this isn’t a coincidence. The GENIUS Act and Trump’s executive order signal Washington’s intent to bring stablecoins into the fold, thereby creating a structural pipeline for dollar demand. With regulation in place and hundreds of billions already in circulation, stablecoins are shaping up to be one of the most consequential financial innovations of our time. To cut through the noise, in the latest edition of the Create Wealth Newsletter we’ve covered: - What are stablecoins? - The scale of adoption - What could go wrong?  - Stablecoins and the treasury feedback loop - The commercial opportunity - Should India explore stablecoins? 📩 Read the full edition here: https://lnkd.in/dgcyrghW #CreateWealth #Dezerv #Stablecoins #Tether

If your investments don’t beat 11% annually, they’re silently eroding. Here’s why: → Governments are printing money at 8% a year to manage debt. → Add 2–3% inflation, and your savings are losing value faster than you think. Most portfolios don’t even account for this. → Gold? Islamic ETFs? They’re popular, but they rarely outperform. → Sukuks or stocks? They often follow the same trajectory. The silent tax of currency debasement + inflation is relentless. Many investments focus solely on nominal returns, ignoring what’s happening behind the scenes. (Spoiler: currency value is shrinking). But here’s the truth: → It’s time to rethink traditional diversification. → We need investments that perform in *real terms.* Over the last 15 years, certain assets showed resilience: ✅ Bitcoin: 135% annualized return. ✅ Ethereum: 133%. ✅ Tech platforms with pricing power. Meanwhile: ❌ Gold and Islamic ETFs? Often under 11% in real terms. (That’s not a win, especially in today’s macro environment.) There’s room for smarter strategies that align with Islamic finance principles. But we need to move beyond overused ideas and explore innovative vehicles. Let’s walk this path together. In today's newsletter, we go through this in depth, you don't want to miss it. --> swissislamicfinance.com for my Muslim audience, --> or on Substack for my broader audience: https://lnkd.in/dPX_tYHV

Analysts at JPMorgan have highlighted a significant potential boost in US dollar demand driven by the adoption of stablecoins. Their research posits that stablecoins could lead to an additional US$1.4 trillion demand for the US dollar by 2027 if sufficient interest arises from overseas investors. Contrary to concerns about de-dollarization, this shift underscores the pivotal role stablecoins could play in solidifying the dollar's standing in the global financial landscape. Currently valued at approximately US$260 billion, the stablecoin market might expand to US$2 trillion in a high-growth scenario. This anticipated surge exemplifies the growing intersection between traditional finance and digital currencies, with stablecoins acting as a bridge. Predominantly pegged 1:1 to the US dollar, stablecoins like Tether maintain stability through reserves that include fiat currency and other assets such as Treasuries and T-bills. As foreign corporations and households convert their local currencies into stablecoins, new demands for US dollars are created. This dynamic could reinforce the dollar's significance internationally, providing added liquidity and underscoring the dollar's robustness in a digital age. Meanwhile, in Europe, there are discussions underway on the development of euro-denominated stablecoins. With euro zone finance ministers deliberating on supportive measures, this could mark a cross-continental push towards integrating stablecoins into traditional monetary policies. This evolving narrative around stablecoins isn't merely a conversation about digital assets; it's about financial evolution and the potential reimagining of monetary systems. As stakeholders continue to navigate this landscape, the implications could be profound, reshaping economic paradigms and reinforcing the dollar's dominance in a digital future. #Stablecoins #DigitalAssets #USDemand https://lnkd.in/e_BGM7Va