Estimation in Scrum vs Traditional Project Management

View profile for Tirumalachari Kancharla

Program Manager | Project Delivery | Agile & Release Management | Cloud & AI Transformation | Banking, Insurance, Healthcare | PMP, SAFe | Immediate Joiner

🔹 Estimation in Scrum (Agile) • Approach: Relative & collaborative • Focus: Effort/complexity rather than exact time • Who Estimates: Entire Scrum team (developers) during Sprint Planning or Backlog Refinement • Common Techniques: 1. Story Points → Based on relative complexity (e.g., Fibonacci scale: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13). 2. Planning Poker → Team members vote simultaneously to avoid bias. 3. T-Shirt Sizing → XS, S, M, L, XL to classify effort. 4. Affinity Estimation → Grouping user stories by relative size. 5. Ideal Days/Hours → Rare in Scrum, but sometimes used for reference. ✅ Strengths: Encourages team ownership, faster estimation, works well in uncertainty, adapts as velocity becomes predictable. ❌ Limitations: Not time-bound, so difficult for external stakeholders who want fixed dates. ⸻ 🔹 Estimation in Traditional Project Management • Approach: Absolute, deterministic • Focus: Duration, cost, and resources (time-based estimates) • Who Estimates: Project Manager (with input from SMEs) • Common Techniques: 1. Expert Judgment → Based on experience from past projects. 2. Analogous Estimation → Comparing with similar past projects. 3. Parametric Estimation → Using formulas/models (e.g., cost per unit × quantity). 4. Three-Point Estimation (PERT) → Optimistic, Pessimistic, Most likely → Expected Duration. Formula: (O + 4M + P) / 6 5. Bottom-Up Estimation → Breaking work into WBS (Work Breakdown Structure) and estimating each task. ✅ Strengths: Provides detailed schedules and budgets, good for contracts and compliance. ❌ Limitations: Can be rigid, assumes stable requirements, and often inaccurate in complex/uncertain projects. 💡 Key Takeaway: Scrum estimation improves predictability as the team matures. Project Management estimation provides detailed upfront forecasting. In reality — most organizations blend both to manage delivery and reporting. 👉 Question for you: How does your team estimate? ✅ Pure Agile (Story Points)? ✅ Traditional (Hours/PERT)? ✅ Or a Hybrid approach? Drop your thoughts ⬇️ — I’d love to hear how you balance estimation in your projects! #AgileLeadership #Scrum #ProjectManagement #Estimation #DeliveryExcellence #AgileAtScale

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Rajesh Kadam

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3w

Brilliantly explained! I really appreciate how you’ve highlighted the nuanced differences between Agile and traditional estimation while acknowledging that most organizations thrive in a hybrid space. It’s a reminder that estimation isn’t just about numbers — it’s about building shared understanding, setting realistic expectations, and fostering trust among stakeholders. What I’ve observed is that Agile estimation succeeds when teams focus on relative complexity over absolute time, because it shifts the conversation from “how fast” to “how valuable.” At the same time, blending traditional forecasting techniques can help leadership gain the visibility they need without constraining team agility.

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