Is 2025 Showing a Recovery in the Canadian Mining Sector?

Over the past 20 years, mining in Canada has generated over C$979.4 billion in sales of metals and minerals. This revenue has steadily grown from C$24.3 billion in 2004 to C$64.3 billion in 2024, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.0% (Figure 1).

However, since reaching a high of C$78.5 billion in 2022, the value generated by the mining sector has declined by 8% to C$71.9 billion in 2023 and 11% to C$64.3 billion in 2024 (Figure 1).

Can we expect to see a recovery in the mining sector in 2025 based on what we have seen in the first half of the year?

Figure 1: Value Generated by Mining Per Year 2004-2024Figure 1: Value Generated by Mining Per Year 2004-2024

Source: Data collected from Natural Resources Canada

Before we look at the potential for 2025, we should first examine the 2024 and 2023 declines in Canadian mining revenues to give us some context for what we have seen in the first half of 2025.

2024 Drop

The 2024 decrease in the value generated by the mining sector in Canada may surprise many readers, given the relatively strong precious metals prices seen during the year. The decline was primarily driven by a sharp drop in the value of non-metallic minerals, particularly potash, despite modest gains in base metals, minerals and aggregates.

The value of revenue from non-metallic minerals fell by 25.2%, from $15.1 billion in 2023 to $11.3 billion in 2024, with potash alone accounting for a $3.3 billion decrease. Canada is the world’s leading potash producer, so changes to the price have a big impact on the country, and the potash price in 2024 was heavily influenced by a global oversupply and weaker demand.

Beyond potash, other non-metallic minerals like diamonds also faced challenges. The diamond market saw reduced demand in 2024 due to economic uncertainty and weaker luxury goods sales globally.

2023 Drop

The 2023 decrease in Canadian mining revenue was also partly due to a fall in potash prices, with a 27% revenue decline in 2023 compared to 2022. In addition, iron ore and coal faced challenges, with iron ore revenue slumping by 40% from 2022 to 2023 due to price volatility, and metallurgical coal, used in steelmaking, saw a 13% export value drop in 2023 to $12.8 billion.

An oversupply of critical minerals and battery metals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel also experienced sharp price declines (e.g., lithium by 75%, cobalt and nickel by 30-45% from 2022 peaks) due to global oversupply, particularly from China.

Partial Rebound Anticipated in 2025

Despite the 2023 and 2024 declines in mining revenue in Canada, the figures for these years are still relatively high compared to the historic numbers (Figure 1), so 2025 isn’t starting from a low base.

Strong gold and copper prices experienced during the first half of 2025 could drive a partial rebound in 2025, if they continue to remain strong.

While the ongoing weakness in the potash and iron ore market, in addition to the flat coal and battery metal markets, is likely to prevent a full rebound of the mining sector to 2023 (C$71.9 billion) and 2022 levels (C$78.5 billion).

Based on our analysis, we see the potential for the value of Canadian mineral production to partially rebound in 2025 to an estimated C$67-73 billion, which would be a 4-13% increase from 2024’s C$64.3 billion.

While not a dramatic rise like the 28% increase seen in 2022 or the 25% rise seen in 2021, a partial recovery is better than a continued decline.

Junior Mining Insights Newsletter Mining and Metals Research Corporation

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