#36 Dams, Dreams & a Decade That Could Change India: Inside Arunachal’s Hydropower Push

Welcome to the 36th Policy Mandala by India House. This week, we explore Arunachal’s hydropower leap—and what it means for energy, equity, and sovereignty. Enjoy reading!

Take a guess.

Which Indian state:

• Has a per capita income that is 33% higher than the national average?

• Has the lowest population density?

• Houses over 35 unique tribal groups?

• Has more forest than farmland, and more length of rivers than roads?

• And is about to power nearly a quarter of India’s entire hydropower future?

Welcome to Arunachal Pradesh.

This is the land we once thought we might lose. But sixty years on, that same land is where India is building its most ambitious dreams.

The land of the rising sun, is set to now become the land of rising waters, rising wattage, and rising ambition.

And this is what today’s Policy Mandala is set out to capture!

Not just Arunachal’s quiet rise, but the enormous power it’s preparing to send across the rest of India.

On June 13, 2025, the Arunachal Pradesh government declared the next ten years as the “Decade of Hydropower”. A move aimed at harnessing the state's massive 58,000 MW hydro potential, which accounts for nearly 40% of India’s total.

But it wasn’t just this long-term vision that made headlines.

The real jolt came from the now: last week, the state approved projects worth 19,000 megawatts (MW). For a state with just 13 lakh people, that’s not just ambition, it’s a signal. Arunachal is quietly stepping into the role of a clean energy powerhouse for India.

That means the land which first sees the ‘light’, is now positioning itself to provide ‘light’ to the rest of India.

One might ask, how big is 19 GW?

To put it in everyday terms: 1 GW can power nearly 10 lakh Indian homes. So 19 GW could light up every household in a state the size of Maharashtra.

It’s also roughly equal to the entire electricity demand of Gujarat, and more than what India currently exports to Bangladesh and Nepal combined.

What’s more?

In the Northeast, Arunachal already contributes to Bhutan’s energy grid indirectly via eastern corridor exchanges. But with this scale, it may soon emerge as the hydro-electric heart of eastern South Asia, capable of linking with Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and even parts of Myanmar through cross-border energy trade networks.

India already facilitates exports of electricity to Bangladesh and Nepal. With the right policy framework, Arunachal’s rivers could soon be driving lights and industry across all 4 of the international borders: Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.

But before we get to geopolitics, let’s zoom in to what this project actually looks like.

This 19 GW push isn’t made of one big dam. It’s a constellation.

Part 1 of this constellation came on February 20, 2025, when the state announced 35 small hydropower projects totaling 570.75 MW, with investments of over ₹7,000 crore and an estimated 7,500 direct jobs. Two of them—Dikshi HEP and Khangtang HEP—are already generating electricity.

The next big element is the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP), a 11,000 MW behemoth on the Siang River, which later becomes the Brahmaputra. If built, this would be India’s largest hydropower project.

Then there’s the long-stalled Etalin Project (3,097 MW) in Dibang Valley, which received in-principle forest clearance in May 2025, marking its revival. Add to this the Tato-II Project (700 MW) and a 240 MW project in Shi Yomi, awarded to Patel Engineering this year.

Together, they are the blueprint of a state staking its future on hydropower. Here's a snapshot of the major projects driving the 19 GW vision:

But what does all this power mean for the people of Arunachal?

As per the government estimates, 1 MW of hydroelectric capacity creates around 6.5 direct jobs during construction and about 0.4 permanent jobs in operations. This means Arunachal’s 19 GW could itself generate over 1.2 lakh jobs in the coming years, especially in construction, logistics, and local services. For a state with one of the lowest population densities in the country, that means livelihoods reaching the remotest corners.

Plus, there’s money to be made.

Arunachal is expected to earn over ₹4,525 crore annually from free power sales by 2035. In simpler words, under the power-sharing agreements, the state gets 12% of electricity generated from central projects free, and another 1% just for the local area development. This revenue, if managed well, could finance everything from schools and roads to hospitals in remote valleys.

But there’s more to this than numbers.

Zoom out, and you’ll see this energy push sits at the heart of a river system that binds nations. The Brahmaputra is a moving map of power and politics.

It begins as the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, cuts across Arunachal as the Siang, winds into Assam as the Brahmaputra, and finally fans out through Bangladesh into the Bay of Bengal. Along this journey, it drops nearly 3,000 metres, making it one of the world’s most powerful untapped river systems for hydropower.

It’s also a river on which China, India, and Bangladesh depend for water, food, and now, electricity.

China has already built multiple run-of-the-river projects on the upper Yarlung Tsangpo. Satellite images show at least 11 dams either planned or under construction. And now it is building a massive 60,000 MW “super dam” at Medog, just 30 km upstream of the Indian border, to be operational by 2033.

This isn’t just about power, it’s about riparian rights. That is, in international water law, the country that puts a shared river to use first often gains “prior use” or “established use” rights, which can strengthen its claim in future negotiations. So, building early isn't just development, it's diplomacy by other means.

India knows this. The Siang Upper project, in many ways, is a hydrological counterclaim. Building it affirms India’s first-use principle. It also acts as a geostrategic deterrent, strengthening India’s presence near the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

But, all this is not without a catch. The story gets more complex on the ground.

Tribal communities, especially the Adi and Idu Mishmi groups have been vocal. They fear losing not just land, but identity. The Etalin project alone will require the felling of nearly 47,000 trees, while Tato-II may cut down over 1.5 lakh. Add to this the risks of flash floods, seismic instability, and cultural displacement, and you see why some villagers have said, “We will die for our land.”

The state has responded with plans. The cabinet has set up New Yingkiong and Geku Development Authorities to build alternative towns. It has begun property compensation surveys, promised rehabilitation packages, and committed to community consultation.

But is it enough?

For many affected families, there’s still no clarity on resettlement timelines, livelihood transitions, or cultural safeguards. Some want tribal councils to co-monitor project impacts. Others ask for biodiversity credits or a seat at the revenue-sharing table.

So what should we do?

First, we believe Arunachal, with its overwhelmingly tribal population, offers a rare opportunity for India to move beyond tokenistic consultations. Instead of symbolic outreach, this is a chance to formally integrate tribal councils into the core of project planning and governance, ensuring both trust and continuity of indigenous knowledge.

Second, one of the least acknowledged risks of Himalayan development is how altered sediment flows can disturb seismic balance over time. In fragile zones like Arunachal, this can trigger unpredictable and uneven tectonic activity. That’s why we believe that all large-scale infrastructure, especially dams, must go beyond routine EIAs. We need advanced modelling of sediment dynamics, seismic risks, and long-term climate impacts to avoid creating a future disaster.

Third, India must urgently rethink its reliance on foreign cloud-based platforms for dam surveillance. Many “smart dam” systems today run on overseas SaaS tools, risking long-term data control and sovereignty. But India now has the capacity to do better.

ISRO’s satellite programs like CARTOSAT for high-resolution terrain mapping and the Bhuvan geoportal, have significantly advanced domestic capabilities in hydrological and geospatial monitoring. It’s time to build on that momentum by developing open-source, locally governed systems. These must also uphold tribal digital rights—the principle that indigenous communities should have control over how data about their lands, rivers, and ecosystems is collected, used, and shared.

Fourth, Arunachal is on its way to becoming an energy-surplus state. But Arunachal, with its limited plain terrain, may not be able to host large-scale industries, while other Northeastern states like Assam, Meghalaya, and Nagaland can. This opens up a real possibility: can Arunachal power an industrial resurgence across the Northeast?

It's time for policymakers to start connecting these dots. The recent Northeast Global Investment Summit was a welcome step, but hosting it in Delhi says a lot. If the roadmap for Northeast development still needs a pit stop in the capital, it’s clear the destination hasn’t quite been reached.

Fifth, overbuilding downstream in a mountainous terrain like Arunachal could also backfire environmentally. What Arunachal must offer is an opportunity to lead a third path: a state-led, people-aware, eco-balanced energy blueprint. That’s what the country needs.

And finally, a political question. Should India match China dam for dam?

Well, this isn’t just about hydropower or river management anymore. These questions take on a new urgency in light of a recent statement by a senior Chinese official. After India suspended parts of the Indus Waters Treaty amid renewed tensions with Pakistan, China issued a not-so-subtle warning that it could use the Brahmaputra’s flow as leverage if India disrupted water arrangements with its allies.

The message was clear: Beijing holds the upstream advantage. If it ever chose to weaponize that by releasing excess water from its massive dams or abruptly holding it back, the downstream impact on India’s Northeast could be devastating. Entire districts could face floods, or crippling water shortages.

That’s the uncomfortable reality. And in this context, India’s own dams are not just about storage or energy, they are also buffers against external shocks.

And thanks to One Nation, One Grid, Arunachal’s dams are also about making sure that India’s easternmost state doesn’t just see the first sunrise, but also powers the rest of the country long after the sun sets!

See you in our next edition, next week.

The team behind Policy Mandala has launched a 4-month policy program for professionals, the Policy Pioneers Program, in collaboration with IIM Raipur and the Public Systems Lab at IIT Delhi. Know more about it here.

Book Mandala

In this section, we suggest a book to be read/listened to each week, for the inner policy enthusiast in you :)

Book: China's Water War in North-East India

Author: Dr. Santosh K. Guha

About the Book:

In China's Water War in North-East India, Dr. Santosh K. Guha lays bare a geopolitical faultline often overlooked: water. Focusing on the Brahmaputra River, whose origins lie in Tibet and whose flow sustains millions in India and Bangladesh—the book examines China's growing control over its headwaters.

With plans for massive dams and possible diversion projects, Beijing’s hydro-strategy has stirred deep anxieties downstream. Guha explores how these developments risk triggering not just ecological harm, but diplomatic friction and strategic vulnerability. Far from speculation, this is a rigorously researched account of how water could become Asia’s next frontier of conflict.

Our Take:

This book is essential for anyone trying to understand why Arunachal Pradesh's hydropower push is not just about electricity, but more. As India builds dams to secure its own riparian claim, Guha reminds us that rivers are not just natural resources. For policy researchers, defence watchers, and climate realists, China’s Water War offers a sharp, urgent perspective on why water security must now be at the heart of India’s strategic playbook.

Co-authored by Mrinal Rai and Aswathi Prakash.

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