The AI Disruption: Thoughts on Article “My Last 5 Years of Work”

Introduction

Today is the last Friday of 2024.  This year has been an exciting year in business and technology fueled much by advances in AI.  Many business leaders will agree that if you are not preparing to use AI or already using it in some way, you will be left behind.  One of the emerging AI technologies that is set to have the largest impact will be the use of AI Agents to accomplish tasks.  Agents can work individually or as part of a team to accomplish tasks, each filling a crucial role. This is just one of a number of growing AI related technologies that is disrupting work and causing angst among many professionals.

The New Normal

I came across an interesting article earlier this year about the significance AI will have on society in the next 5 years.  The article titled "My Last Five Years of Work" by Avital Balwit of Anthropic had a really interesting take on the future of work in a world infused with AI.  In the article, she discusses how models are improving exponentially to a point where human knowledge workers could be displaced and render many traditional jobs unnecessary.  I have heard similar sentiments about AI in the past.  The impact of AI can already be seen in industries like customer service and freelance writing.  As a seasoned IT professional, the article was definitely thought-provoking so I decided to address it head on.  Here are few of the key points:

1)     AI is Rapidly Advancing: AI models are becoming increasingly capable, handling tasks like content generation and text analysis with growing proficiency.

o   Anyone who has been paying attention since the release of ChatGPT to the public in November of 2022 can agree.  It set off a wildfire of interest, excitement and for some, concern.  Seems like every other day, model efficiency and use cases increase. Well this is what we strive for in technology, for it to get better and better.  However, the rate which AI is improving is mind-blowing.  But much of the work is task specific.  To replace entire job functions is very questionable.  Typically organizations have large bureaucracies, complex systems and intricacies that make it difficult to adopt new technologies quickly.  Those of you that have been through large transformations like a large ERP implementation will probably agree that 5 years is really not a lot of time. In addition, what about issues that will undoubtedly occur with the AI tools that require IT support.  Technology is never an exact science and support of even the most proven technology stacks can be difficult.  To replace entire job functions without many human oversight is far-fetched at this time.

2)     Knowledge Work Automation: Tasks such as copywriting, tax preparation, and customer service are susceptible to automation by AI.

o   Yes, many industries are being disrupted.  But this is an opportunity for the organizations that are poised to take advantage of AI to be more creative.  Human instinct, creativity, judgement, and connection is indispensable.  You can run the risk of over-automating everything.  For example,  I had a home service provider that used AI so much that when you called customer service, it was nearly impossible to reach a human.  Many issues required human intervention or sometimes, I just preferred to speak to a human.  Well, I no longer use that provider due to this issue.

3)     Denial Among Knowledge Workers: Many professionals underestimate AI's capabilities, focusing on its current limitations rather than its rapid progress.

o   This observation holds merit; some workers may not fully recognize AI's potential to transform their industries.  However, this is an argument for why it will be slower to be adopted by some industries.  Instead of flocking to use the technology, some industries will be skeptical.  Don’t believe me, there are still many organizations who do not trust the CLOUD.  They prefer to host critical data on-prem not due to regulations, but because they are more comfortable. This decision can come down to preferences and leaders in many organizations will be very reluctant to adopt AI.  Remember that with all technology advances, there are always late majority and laggards to adoption.

4)     Eventual AI Dominance in Cognitive Tasks: AI is expected to eventually outperform humans in all cognitive tasks.

o   While AI is advancing, the claim that it will surpass humans in all cognitive tasks remains very questionable.  Human mental capacity is very complex.  Many jobs rely on human intuition.  These skills are critical for jobs like business strategy and in the legal profession.  In addition, it is not just logic and ethics that is important to jobs like Sales, but emotion is critical.  Many studies highlight the significant role emotional factors and personal rapport have in buying decisions by consumers.  A study conducted in 2023 revealed that 86% of consumer buying choices were influenced by emotional needs.  It is hard to duplicate Human interactions with AI. In general, most people still prefer dealing with humans.

5)     Slower Progress in Robotics: Physical tasks requiring dexterity and situational awareness, like those performed by electricians and plumbers, will be automated later due to slower advancements in robotics.

o   Research shows that robotics does indeed lag behind AI in replicating complex physical tasks.  This will put a damper on automation in areas that use robotics.  Physical dexterity remain a challenge for robotics.  Many have seen robots on display at conferences.  While they can understand commands, jump and move around, they are a long way from moving with the preciseness and gracefulness of humans enough to do tasks where these skills are paramount.  Human involvement will remain essential for physical tasks and for managing AI-robotics interfaces in complex environments.

6)     Some jobs are hard to duplicate: Roles involving human interaction, such as counselors and caregivers, may continue to be performed by humans due to a preference for human touch.

o   This is does seem accurate.  How many organizations are willing to accept the liability for AI or robot performing counseling on a person in crisis that has a bad outcome.  Human interaction cannot be duplicated with authenticity.  It will be nice to have a robot that can assist the elderly, but that does not replace a human that shows empathy and compassion. 

7)     Potential Obsolescence of Work: AI could lead to widespread job obsolescence, raising questions about human happiness without traditional employment.

o   AI has already began reshaping work in many industries.  That I can agree with.  But the displacement of jobs by AI necessitates discussions on societal well-being and alternative structures for meaning and income are a bit much.  History has shown that great advancements in technology have created new industries and job roles.  Think about the disruption the internet created and the development of so many jobs like web development, digital marketing, e-commerce, as well as work from home opportunities.  According to McKinsey Global Institute, AI is projected to contribute additional $13 trillion to the global economy by 2030.   What is more likely scenario is that humans will have to become agile, always willing to learn and adopt a mindset to accept change.  There will undoubtably be more changes to job roles and career changes.  Not all bad, because people may take the opportunity to do work that they are passionate about and it could become less about a check. 

8)     Universal Basic Income (UBI): The mentions financial needs could be met through UBI or similar, allowing focus on happiness without work.

o   This really seems far-fetched to me.  I have heard this discussed before but did not give it much thought.  The closest thing to this that I have seen is during Covid when the Federal government sent out relief checks to stimulate the economy.  But work is more than just a place to make a living.  It is the grind, the connections, sense of accomplishments, teamwork, challenges, and stress (LOL) that are important to living a full life.  Upskill and reskilling and learning to effectively work with AI would be more plausible in mitigating any workforce displacement.

9)     AI’s economic impact is uncertain: The overall economic effects of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) are difficult to forecast.

o   AGI is the transformative innovation on the horizon.  However, its arrival is yet to be determined.  An article by Leopold Aschenbrenner titled “Situational Awareness” suggests that it could occur within 3 to 4 years.  Well, whether AGI is three years, five years,  ten years or further away, it’s future  economic impact remains uncertain.  There are several unpredictable factors such as adoption rates, regulatory frameworks, and it seamless integration into society.  With so many unknowns, it is too difficult to make an accurate prediction. 

Conclusion

The rise of AI brings both excitement and uncertainty, but its ultimate impact on society remains difficult to predict. AI systems will still require human oversight, especially to handle uncommon scenarios, ensure quality outcomes, and mitigate unintended consequences. Ethical AI adoption will always need humans in the loop.  While tools are improving every day, they are far from flawless.  In addition, errors made by AI often carry greater scrutiny than human mistakes, as society tend to expect perfections from machines.  This heightened expectation contrasts with the understanding that human errors are inevitable.   For now, I feel that human work remains secure, but the evolution of AI over the next 5 years will be fascinating to watch.  If I can make one final point: AI has the potential to create wealth opportunities for individuals from all backgrounds, fostering benefits that extend across diverse communities.

By Ben Williams

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