APLMA Global Loan Market Summit, Hong Kong 全球贷款市场峰会

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Key Takeaways from Navigating Southeast Asia’s Emerging Market Loan Landscape Amid Global Uncertainty Panel

Asia’s emerging markets are benefiting from multiple growth drivers

South and Southeast Asia offer a range of opportunities for lenders. Various markets are benefiting from supply chain restructuring, declining interest rates, data centre construction, the growth of non-bank finance and strong public sector spending. The resurgence of hospitality and tourism has also contributed to an uptick in loan market activity. Growing pools of private credit are available for borrowers across the region.

 The impact of US trade policies will be uneven

While Canada, Mexico and Europe dominate headlines, Southeast Asia is exposed to potential US trade tariffs, especially targeting partners of Chinese suppliers. As a result, lenders are looking to back borrowers with a strong business case that can thrive despite potential tariffs.

Local currency borrowing is growing across Asia

A higher-for-longer interest rate environment in the United States has already led to an increase in borrowing in local currencies across South and Southeast Asia. Regulatory initiatives, especially in India, are also an important driver: in many cases, lending in the local currency may be the only way to access specific opportunities like strategic acquisitions, usually by partnering with onshore units of international banks or through special purpose vehicles created overseas.

Regulatory frameworks remain complex, but the ecosystem is improving

While there has been significant progress on creditor protection and enforcement in certain jurisdictions, Asia's diverse legal landscape still has room for improvement. Private credit funds, which can deal with lower-rated borrowers and more complex structures, are maintaining a conservative approach to Asia’s emerging markets given the uncertain recovery prospects in an event of default. Meanwhile, large deals are on the horizon in the Philippines, where investment activity is growing. Vietnam also has big plans, but its implementation has been lagging. As well as security and enforceability, lenders are looking for better payment terms and guarantees, and stress the importance of local networks in navigating risks and opportunities in emerging markets.

Investor confidence in India remains high despite governance and growth concerns

Recent challenges and reputational risks have highlighted the importance of due diligence in Asia’s emerging markets. Investment inflows continue to grow in India, especially in infrastructure, and the market is capable of absorbing large ticket sizes given the slowdown in China. The scale of the Indian market means there will still be plenty of opportunities to deploy capital, although it’s an extremely competitive landscape for lenders.  

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在全球不确定性下探索东南亚新兴贷款市场小组讨论关键要点

亚洲新兴市场受益于多种增长动力

南亚和东南亚市场为贷款人提供了多样化的机会，区内多个市场都受益于供应链重组、利率下降、数据中心建设、非银行金融板块的增长和公共部门的大额支出。酒店和旅游业的复苏也促进了贷款市场活动的增加。区内借款人可以使用的私募信贷资金池不断增长。

 美国贸易政策对区内各市场的影响不一

虽然加拿大、墨西哥和欧洲最受关注，但东南亚也可能面临美国征收的贸易关税，尤其是针对中国供应商的合作伙伴。因此，贷方希望与业务前景优良的借款人合作，尽管面对潜在的关税，这些企业仍能蓬勃发展。

本币贷款在亚洲各地增长

美国长期较高的利率环境已经导致南亚和东南亚地区内以本币计价的贷款增加。监管政策（尤其是在印度）也是一个重要的驱动力 --- 在许多情况下，本币贷款可能是接触特别机会（如战略收购等）的唯一途径，通常是通过与国际银行的在岸部门合作或通过在海外创建的特殊目的公司所进行。

 监管框架仍然复杂，但生态系统正在改善

虽然一些市场在债权人保护和监管执行方面取得了重大进展，但亚洲多样性的法律环境仍有改进的空间。私募信贷基金可以接纳评级较低的借款人和更复杂的贷款结构，目前也鉴于违约情况下不明朗的贷款回收率而对亚洲新兴市场保持谨慎的态度。与此同时，菲律宾的投资活动正在增长，并将迎来大型交易项目；而越南也有雄心勃勃的计划，但在实行方面一直滞后。除了贷款条款方面的保障和法律效力外，贷款人还在寻求更好的还款条款和担保，并强调本地网络在管理新兴市场的风险和捕捉机遇方面的重要性。

尽管存在针对企业治理和增长的担忧，但投资者对印度市场的整体信心仍然很高

最近的挑战和声誉风险凸显了尽职调查在亚洲新兴市场的重要性。对印度的投资持续增长，尤其是在基建方面。鉴于中国经济放缓，而印度拥有能够吸收大额资金的市场规模，这意味着市场仍将提供大量部署资本的机会，但对贷方来说仍是一个竞争极其激烈的环境。 

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