Battle of the Bastards: Notes on Strategy
(Caution: Major Game of Thrones Season 6 spoilers)
I’m a Game Of Thrones fanatic. There I admit it. Episode 9 of Season 6 was primal in the emotions it elicited from many viewers. I watched it after work in the office with my colleagues. In one of the most gripping scenes ever (apparently filmed over 10 hours) Jon Snow was pummeling Ramsay Bolton’s face in an armada of face jabs – our reaction watching this scene had 7 men howling and screaming rabidly egging him on, literally baying for his blood.
I digress, it was a kick ass episode.
Viewed from the prism of strategy though, I have been asking myself who was a better strategist between both men. In my mind, Ramsay came out tops. I have always believed that the heart and success of strategy is a person’s understanding of human nature.
Not a fixation with shiny new models of thought/thinking but the clear eyed understanding of human nature.
This clear eyed understanding of what motivates people to act or not act, to fight or flee, to be loyal or to rebel is the kernel of strategy. The greatest strategic minds in business or warfare have been those armed with this clarity of thought. If they can predict and provoke human reaction they can determine appropriate actions.
Jon Snow rushed into battle without a sizable army, he was easily provoked to confront a whole army on foot just by the expectedly horrifying spectacle of watching his brother Rickon die by the arrows of Ramsay. More importantly, he downplayed the advice of his sister on war strategy (I would give him the benefit of the doubt that this wasn’t sexist as he went seeking Melisandre’s path to victory advice).
All these 3 actions were quite accurately prepared for and accounted for in Ramsay Bolton’s war plan, he knew Jon would rush forward to save his brother (so he sent the cavalry to kill him off once he had been drawn away from his troops), he was ready to sacrifice half his own army to defeat Jon Snow (ordering the archers to rain arrows on his enemies and his own cavalry) and after encircling them with his ground troops, a closed assault would make even the toughest soldiers panic and stampede each other.
Brilliant strategy. It worked. The battle was won. Or so he thought.
It took the now very intrepid Sansa Stark to unravel his strategy. She came to battle armed with an insight into how Ramsay thought (traps, games and butchery), she was prepared to cut her known losses (Rickon Stark was dead to her before the day of battle), she called for help from someone she ought to despise (Petyr Baelish a.k.a Littlefinger) and came to the battle ground just at the time when Ramsay Bolton was at his weakest in resources to fight or the mental state in which to re-strategize.
Ramsay was defeated. I never thought I would enjoy watching a man being eaten alive as much as I did
Game of thrones does that to you.
What can strategy students learn from this epic battle? While predictive modelling and other gizmos are what floats the modern strategists boat today, I would call for a return to the origins of strategy. The well-worn path of Sun Tzu & Machiavelli and their modern apostle Robert Greene.
The mastery of human nature remains the heart of strategy.
Once you have a thorough grasp on how a person or organization will react to an action or event you can own the outcomes in the field of play.
In the field of marketing, the heart of strategy is the understanding of Segmentation, Targeting and Positioning. How well have you done the heavy lifting of research in understanding the customer segment your product or service is meant to appeal to? Of all the segments in a market which is the most profitable to target as business? What is the best positioning framework to engage the segments you have selected?
Companies that dominate their markets are those with the most robust understanding of customer segments and who act on this knowledge in respect to their competition. They invest in competitive information gathering to know how their competitors think and predict how they will act. They use this knowledge to spring new initiatives, refine existing services and win market share.
Always remember - Comprehension drives action.
In the immortal words of Cato –Rem Tene, Verba Sequentur – “Grasp the subject and the words will follow”.
When the dust settled at Winterfell, we could only hail the one person whose grasp of human nature was complete for all the actors on the battle field.
For her role in the battle of the bastards, I would gladly bend the knee.
Hotel Front Desk Supervisor at Grand Casino Mille Lacs & Hinckley
3yAs far as Bolton's actions during the battle, some of them were very clever, designed to destroy morale and force the enemy to make costly mistakes, all of which were achieved. The ONE thing that I do NOT agree with is his decision to slaughter his own troops with indiscriminate arrow volleys. I understand that this is a tactic that some commanders used: tie up the enemy's main forces using some of your own men, and then sacrifice your men so that your archers can inflict catastrophic damage on the enemy forces. It is a callous disregard for the trust your men place into your hands, as well as a disregard for their very lives. They are NOT chess pieces, and you cannot "sacrifice" one to make a better situation for yourself unless you KNOW their lives are already forfeit to begin with. It arguably helped cost Bolton the battle as well, since he no longer had his main cavalry force to help ward off the Vale's cavalry. Make no mistake: had the Vale not come to Jon and co.'s rescue, Bolton's tactics would have won him the day, but Jon did not make as many mistakes as this article claims.
Hotel Front Desk Supervisor at Grand Casino Mille Lacs & Hinckley
3y- "He (Jon) downplayed the advice of his sister on war strategy." Yes, and with good reason: she herself fully admitted that, when Jon asked her what he SHOULD do, she had NO idea about battle formations, military tactics, strategy, etc. What advice she COULD offer was that Bolton is the type of person who "lays the traps, not falls for the traps", which is subjective, as even the best military tacticians can fall into a trap if it's executed properly. She told him that Bolton likes to toy with people, play off of their emotions and fears. Her end advice was, and I quote, "Whatever he wants you to do, don't do it." which is...not exactly easy to do, in all honesty. Now, as far as Jon's actions during the battle, we agree: He let his emotions get the better of him. It's difficult to fight against your emotions, especially when they're strong emotions. Realistically...he should have let his brother die. Bolton was determined to get to Jon through him, and in doing so, jeopardized the entire battle before it had even begun. He also pretty much ruined their initial strategy as well, making it far more likely that they'd end up losing regardless.
Hotel Front Desk Supervisor at Grand Casino Mille Lacs & Hinckley
3yThis will be a multi-post reply to the article above. I have to disagree with some portions of this assessment. I specifically watched this episode, and have not seen any other GoT episodes, but in terms of battle strategy/tactics, I can analyze the battle alone based off of the single episode. Having seen the battle, I can point out a few flaws in this argument. To start with, the pre-battle strategy: - "Jon Snow rushed into battle without a sizeable army." Yes, but also no. It was stated very clearly by Jon himself that this was ALL that they had. Yes, Sansa pointed out that Jon should have waited until he had a much larger force, but Jon countered that they had talked with/tried to convince EVERY OTHER HOUSE to aid their cause. Aside from those that were already present, this was AS LARGE a force as they were going to get. Their fighting strength was at its strongest right here, right now. Given that knowledge, there wasn't much of an option if the goal was to still defeat Bolton on the battlefield. This was as favorable as it was going to get in terms of numbers disparity.
Customer Success Executive | Presales & Solution Consulting Director | Driving Digital Transformation Across ERP, HCM, and Cloud | Trusted C-Suite Partner | EMEA Experience
9yVery Interesting play on the series and knowledge of how people react in situations. Its as close to human reality as you'll get. Two thumbs up
Experienced Marketing & Communications Manager | 10+ Cross Industry Experience
9yI started reading this with a mind set. "Another cheesy write up on GOT and the most talked about episode 9" but as a fanatic I kept reading. *Game of Thrones does that to you*. Am glad I didn't stop. A lot of times we find ourselves battling competition head on without a "win" strategy. It's definitely back to the drawing board for me. Great article!