The big push for renewable energy in India: What will drive it?

My latest paper in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists focuses on the drivers of renewable energy in India.

Arunabha Ghosh (2015) ‘The big push for renewable energy in India: What will drive it?’ Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 71(4), July, 31-42. Available at http://bos.sagepub.com/content/71/4/31.abstract.

Two years ago, I visited the mud hut of a farm laborer in southern India. He had managed to put his eldest daughter through nursing school and she was working in Bangalore. His two other daughters lived with him, attend- ing a local village school by day and roll- ing beedis (Indian cigarettes) in the evening. A tall bamboo stalk, sliced in half lengthwise, served as a channel to harvest rainwater from the family's tiled roof. Also on the roof was a solar panel. The farm worker clearly did not have much in the way of collateral, so why did he take out a loan of (approximately then) $400 to install the panel, which provided him only enough electricity for two LED lights and a mobile- phone charger? Before installing the solar panel, he told me, his two white shirts got dirty very quickly because he burned kerosene indoors for lighting. He spent 50 rupees a month (at the time equivalent to about $1) on laundry detergent. Installing the solar panel reduced his monthly detergent cost to 20 rupees.

The drivers of renewable energy in India cannot be easily captured by the calculations of large investors or analysts focusing solely on aggregate energy scenarios. Factors as seemingly minor as the cost of laundry powder can play a key role in decision making. Project developers, service providers, and investors have to understand consumer needs and behavior to offer appropriate renewable energy solutions. Complicating matters further, a major shift toward more renew- able energy in India's power supplies poses its own set of challenges - including the need for new policies; significant additional and innovative finance; investment in manufacturing capacity, skills, and jobs; and the ability to deal with the intermit- tent nature of the sun and wind. 

Although its dependence on imported fossil fuels has grown consistently, India has also had a long history of promoting renewable energy. Solar power advocates established the Solar Energy Society of India in 1976, soon after the first oil crisis. A joint government-private venture erected India's first grid-connected wind turbine in the state of Gujarat 30 years ago. In 1982, the Indian government formed a Department of Non-Conventional Energy Sources, which became a full-fledged ministry a decade later - making India the first country to set up a ministry dedicated to renewable energy (Ganesan et al., 2014a: 21). As of March 2015, of a total installed electricity generation capacity of nearly 270 gigawatts, India's renewable energy sources (solar, wind, waste-to-energy, biomass power, and small hydro) accounted for about 12 percent, or 32 gigawatts (Central Electricity Authority, 2015: 3).

Both wind and solar power are growing rapidly in India. The country is now the world's fifth-largest producer of wind energy and in April 2015 the state of Madhya Pradesh approved the construction of the world's largest solar project - a 750-megawatt plant (to be commissioned in 2016) significantly bigger than any in California. Last fall, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced an ambitious goal: to install at least 100 gigawatts of solar power capacity, 27 times more than India has now, by 2022. In January 2015, President Obama visited Modi and the two leaders announced that they would work together on financing for solar and nuclear power and would cooperate on efforts to fight climate change - although without setting any specific targets. But even with US help, achieving India's grand vision for a solar subcontinent will not be easy.

India’s government has a bold goal for deploying renewable energy: 175 gigawatts of electricity-generating capacity by 2022, including 100 gigawatts of solar power. But meeting the solar target alone will require a growth rate equivalent to doubling India’s installed solar capacity every 18 months. It will also require a clear understanding of the three factors that drive energy demand in India (access, security, and efficiency); new federal and state policies and incentives; innovative financing for capital investments estimated at $100 billion or more; and additional funding for manufacturing, training, and job creation. Project developers will have to grapple with the cost and availability of land, grid connections, and backup power. To meet the electricity needs of the poor and encourage rural entrepreneurship, India’s energy policies should aim for a mix of grid-connected and decentralized renewable energy sources. 

Read more here: http://thebulletin.org/2015/july/big-push-renewable-energy-india-what-will-drive-it8455 

[The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was established in 1945 by scientists, engineers, and other experts who had created the atomic bomb as part of the Manhattan Project. With 18 Nobel Laureates on its Board of Sponsors, the Bulletin now assesses the potential of terrible damage to societies from nuclear weapons, climate change, and biology-based technologies.]