🛋 Big year for Saudi finance. Is the system ready?

Couchonomics Crunch is your weekly read on fintech, AI, leadership, and more – trusted by 29,707 readers and counting, all in one free newsletter.

New here? Subscribe for weekly updates.

🛋 Big year for Saudi finance. Is the system ready?

Saudi’s financial sector has been expanding for years. But in 2024, that growth started to look more intentional.

Instead of circulating within the usual channels, Saudi capital is now being directed toward national priorities: financing major projects, supporting smaller businesses, and building fintech into a functioning part of the financial system to serve Vision 2030 directly.

But that raises an important question: is the system ready to deliver what Vision 2030 demands?

The latest FSDP report shows progress, with years of policy work starting to translate into outcomes. But it also highlights the gaps where financing is still uneven, regulations aren’t fully aligned, and parts of the infrastructure are struggling to keep up with demand.

In this edition of Couchonomics Crunch, we’re breaking down where Saudi finance stands, and where the pressure points are starting to show.

A financial system that’s starting to work together

For years, Saudi’s financial sector has grown into separate parts: payments, lending, capital markets, and digital services developing alongside each other, but not always connected. But the system now works more like an integrated network, where growth in one area supports activity in others.

This is most visible in payments and credit:

• Non-cash transactions now account for nearly 80% of retail payments, passing national targets.
• SME lending is improving too. While the sector hasn’t hit its 11% target yet, lending to smaller businesses now makes up 9.4% of total bank loans, which is a massive improvement compared to previous years.

Capital markets are expanding in parallel. The Tadawul exchange recorded a record number of listings in 2024, and foreign ownership of Saudi equities continues to grow. Together, these changes point to a financial system that’s starting to function as a connected infrastructure, not as isolated services.

That doesn’t mean the gaps are solved, but it does suggest that years of policy groundwork are starting to work.

Capital is moving, but friction remains

With the core infrastructure improving, capital is flowing more freely across the system: 

• Lending to SMEs has picked up
• Bond and sukuk markets are more active
• Capital markets are drawing more foreign investment
• Saudi’s debt issuance is helping fund large-scale national projects

But while money is moving, it’s not always moving easily.

SMEs still face inconsistent access to financing. Loan timelines are improving, but funding isn’t yet as reliable or widespread as the Vision 2030 targets demand. In capital markets, liquidity remains a challenge, particularly in sukuk and private credit where secondary trading is limited.

Regulation is also slowing things down. Compliance frameworks remain fragmented across banking, insurance, and capital markets. As a result, new products often face duplicated processes and inconsistent approval cycles.

Talent is another friction point. The sector needs more specialists in areas like risk management, AU, and structured finance to manage the volume and complexity of transactions now flowing through the system.

Saudi’s financial sector is more connected than before, and capital is moving. But friction points are everywhere, and they’re not small.

What to watch next

For Saudi’s financial system to support Vision 2030 at scale, certain gaps need to be addressed.

1. First, regulation needs to catch up. Compliance remains fragmented across banking, insurance, and capital markets, slowing product launches and complicating market access. A unified regulatory approach would help the system function more consistently.
2. Second, markets need more depth. Trading in sukuk and private credit remains limited, making it harder for capital to move efficiently. Improving liquidity here isn’t just a technical issue, it’s essential for long-term financing.
3. Third, the sector needs people who can operate the system that’s being built. Risk management, AI, deal structuring aren’t niche skills anymore. Without enough local talent, the infrastructure risks outpacing the people required to run it.
4. And finally, shifting household behavior remains a challenge. Saving rates are low, and much of the focus remains on short-term spending. Changing that will take more than financial products. It will require a change in mindset.

Whether Saudi’s financial sector can deliver on Vision 2030 is a question of coordination, depth, and readiness.

📌 For those working in the sector, where does progress feel slowest?

Hello all and welcome to the “Intersection by Renjit Philip”  in this latest edition of the Crunch Newsletter.

ChatGPT Gets a Personal Computer and a Serious Upgrade

ChatGPT can now do the work, not just talk about it.

Link to OpenAI announcement on X.com >> link

Meet ChatGPT Agent- a new unified system that brings together:

• Operator’s ability to take action with a remote browser
• Deep Research’s knack for web synthesis
• ChatGPT’s conversational brain

It runs on its own computer. It plans, researches, executes and loops until the job’s done. I think this is OpenAI responding to ManusAI from China. This isn’t just an assistant. It’s a co-pilot that acts. It is not yet here in the UAE (at least, I have not got access to it!)

Agents Are Here. Powerful, Experimental and Not Without Risk

Let’s talk about Agents.

They represent a real leap in what AI can do. We’re talking about software that runs on its own computer, takes in a goal, and then… just does the work. Think of it as combining deep research skills with the ability to take action, on repeat.

In the Open AI demo (see one post above), the Agent planned everything for a friend’s wedding:

• Booked travel
• Bought the outfit
• Picked out a gift
• All without asking for help after the initial prompt.

Another example? It analyzed raw data and built a client presentation, end to end.

Sounds amazing, right? It is. But here’s the flip side.

Sam Altman posted that they have built in layers of guardrails; training, system checks, and user controls. Still, we cannot pretend this is bulletproof. There are real risks.

This is cutting-edge stuff. Exciting, but not something we can trust yet with sensitive data or mission-critical decisions.

Bad actors may try to trick these Agents using emails, links, or fake data to get them to do things they shouldn’t. That’s why access control matters.

For example:

• Want the Agent to find time for a dinner? Give it access to your calendar.
• Want it to shop for you? No calendar access needed.

But if you tell it, “Read all my emails and just handle everything,” you’re increasing risk, especially if one malicious email slips through.

So what?

The goal that agent builders should adopt now is to learn in the real world. Slowly. Carefully. Agents are powerful. But the tech, users, and safety strategies all need to evolve together.

Let’s treat this moment with the respect it deserves.

Read more here → link 

I published this article in my newsletter on AI (www.onemorethinginai.com). Please subscribe in case you are 

Nubank’s Secured Lending Play: Building Credit with Certainty

Brazil’s retail credit market has long been skewed against the average borrower, with personal loan interest rates historically soaring above 100% annually, and over 80% of banking assets controlled by just five players as of 2019. Nubank is changing that by building a secured lending model focused on stability and inclusion. From payroll-deducted loans to FGTS-backed advances and investment-tied credit, it offers safer, more affordable credit linked to reliable income or low-risk assets.

Explore how Nubank is redefining secured lending in Brazil, turning a historically broken system into a smarter, and more inclusive credit model.

Bond Investing Strategies

Investing in bonds has various objectives, akin to investing in equities. This may range from passive income on one end, to active money making and alpha generating goals. Investors can therefore choose from a range of fixed income strategies to fulfil their objectives. 

In this piece, we look at the various strategies that investors can make use of. The image below shows the spectrum of bond investing strategies and the options that investors have.

Active Investing

As the name indicates, active investing is a hands-on approach based on whether the bond(s) are well-performing/underperforming, overvalued/undervalued and therefore, an attractive or poor investment. This is often used portfolio/asset managers as their goal is to outperform the market or benchmarks and generate an 'alpha'. There is no guarantee that an actively managed portfolio will outperform a benchmark index or a passively managed portfolio. Besides, more frequent trading leads to higher transaction fees.

Barbell

Think of a barbell or a dumbbell in the gym where the weight is focused on the two ends. Similarly, a bond barbell concentrates investments equally in the two ends of the maturity spectrum i.e., near-term and long-term maturity bonds. For example, a 50% weight in 1 or 2-year bonds and 50% weight in 10-year bonds. The 2-year bonds tend to reduce exposure to volatility whilst having a cash preservation property. The 10-year bonds may see a larger price upside due to its duration whilst also typically offering higher yields than short-term bonds. However, price changes due to the underlying changes in interest rates still remains a concern. 

Bullet

Here, all the maturities of a bond portfolio are concentrated at one point on the yield curve. Investors add bonds to their portfolio over a period to capture any opportunities the market presents. When the bonds in the portfolio mature, the investor will receive a substantial amount of funds at the time. Unlike ladders, bullets seek a lump sum redemption as compared to consistent cash flows. It may require an active management approach to monitor the market and search for opportunities.

Ladders

A bond ladder is essentially a portfolio invested in bonds with equally spaced maturities. For instance, let’s say you have USD 1 million. With corporate bonds typically having a USD 200,000 denomination, you can construct a 5-year laddered portfolio consisting of 5 bonds. Each bond has a different maturity ranging from 1 year, 2 years… to let’s say 5 years.  Each of the bonds’ maturity dates represent a rung on your bond ladder, giving you a portfolio with bonds maturing every year within the 5-year time horizon. As you receive the principal redemption proceeds of the maturing bond every year, this is rolled over into new bonds at the end of your bond ladder. This keeps the laddered portfolio intact. To learn about bond ladders in detail, and how BondbloX can help you make bond ladders, click here

Hold to Maturity/Passive Investing 

This is the opposite of active investing. As the asset manager PIMCO notes, passive strategies involve buying and holding bonds until maturity or investing in bond funds that track bond indices. Passive approaches may suit investors seeking some of the traditional benefits of bonds such as capital preservation, income, and diversification.

Liability Matching

• Duration Matching: This is a strategy to used to equally manage interest rate risk i.e., both price risk and reinvestment risk of bonds. This is typically done by financial institution and asset managers like insurance companies, pension funds etc. Here, the duration of an asset during its lifetime is aligned with the duration of the liability. The primary objective is to match the portfolio’s duration with one’s investment horizon. For instance, an investor having a liability to be repaid (say an education loan), with a 10-year duration, can figure out a bond or a portfolio of bonds with an average duration of 10 years. Thus, it could either be in the form of buying a bond with a 10-year duration or a mix of 5 and 15 year bonds with 50% weightage in each to arrive at your average 10-year duration
• Cashflow Matching: Cash flow matching is a relatively simple strategy where an investor has to match the cashflows from the bond (coupons and principal) with the liability cashflows as and when they occur.

Investors can choose the strategy that suits their risk appetite and requirements to ensure that the portfolio is not just well-balanced but also maximises their returns relative to risk.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. The views expressed are solely those of the contributor and do not represent an offer or recommendation. All rights reserved to BondbloX Pte. Ltd. Reproduction or redistribution without written consent is not permitted.

Welcome to this week's edition of Thriving in the Fast Lane - a coaching series for Couchonomics Crunch readers.

Grace Under Fire: Two Breathing Tools You Can Use Right Now

Dead-simple, always-available, and faster than any pep-talk: conscious breathing is the quickest way to steady mind and body when pressure spikes.

Below you’ll find two short, subtitled clips. Watch me do the drills, then bookmark them  -  they’re the most practical tools we’ve shared in the whole series.

1 | BOX BREATHING  -  “Tap into elite athletes’ routine”

When to use: minutes before a tough meeting, a high-stakes presentation, a heated conversation  -  any moment you feel your pulse climbing.

Why it works: Equal-length inhales, holds, exhales, and holds (“the box”) activate the parasympathetic nervous system and pull you out of the emotional surge.

How to do it (see Video 1 below)

1. Inhale through the nose for 4 seconds.
2. Hold for 4 seconds.
3. Exhale through the mouth for 4 seconds.
4. Hold empty for 4 seconds.

That’s one box. Run two boxes minimum (five-plus if time allows) and feel the heart-rate settle.

2 | 4–7–8 BREATHING  -  “Interrupt a Panic Spiral”

When to use: the first signs of a panic attack  -  or right in the middle of one.

Why it works Elongated exhale plus breath-hold shifts blood-gases, cues the vagus nerve, and forces the fight-or-flight circuitry to stand down.

How to do it (see Video 2 below)

1. Inhale quietly through the nose for 4 seconds.
2. Hold the breath for 7 seconds.
3. Exhale audibly through the mouth for 8 seconds (think “haaah”).

Repeat up to three cycles. Most people feel the surge break by the second round.

Use these drills the way elite athletes do: proactively. Run a few boxes every morning, keep a 4-7-8 in your back pocket, and you’ll meet your next pressure spike with oxygenated clarity instead of adrenaline blur.

Stay fast, stay fluid, stay human. Thanks for travelling the lane with me.

Joe Sejean is an entrepreneur based in Dubai, founder of The Compass, a space for founders to create business leverage by connecting emotionally to their clients; co-founder of the Bravos!, a global community redefining workplace engagement and well-being; and host of the podcast People, Not Numbers, a deep dive into the human side of engagement. Connect on LinkedIn → linkedin.com/in/jsejean

Now, a quick break for your wellness. Chief Wellness Officer at FAB Diego Carrete is on a mission to help executives get fit, increase their energy, and live longer.

Today he  shares:

The only supplement that should be mandatory for anyone after 30

This week’s highlights:

• The cognitive + performance power of creatine
• Quit doomscrolling—do this instead
• Fiber’s impact on appetite and inflammation
• How to never retire your brain

Happy Wednesday,

Creatine isn’t just for gym buffs—it protects against brain aging, boosts mood, memory, and recovery.

A 2025 study showed that 5g of creatine plus CBT halves depression symptoms better than CBT alone.

Creatine timeline:

Week 1–2: More energy, motivation

Week 3–4: Brain fog lifts, focus sharpens

Week 6+: Noticeable cognitive gains

Month 3+: Stabilized mood and strength

Quit doomscrolling—switch to WellnessInDubai.com

Curated, credible daily updates on wellness events, breakthroughs, and rituals.

Fiber’s anti-inflammatory power:

22–30g/day reduces gum inflammation linked to heart, metabolic, and brain health.

Aim for:

• Women: 25g/day
• Men: 30–35g/day

Purpose over retirement:

Mental decline is linked to loss of learning and purpose.

Stay sharp by taking classes, playing strategic games, mentoring, joining masterminds, or volunteering.

Closing protocol:

• Creatine 5g daily
• 30g fiber focus
• Mental reps via learning and coaching

That’s it for now. Found this helpful? Share this with someone who needs it.

In this week’s episode of Couchonomics with Arjun, I’m joined by Rifad Mahasneh, CEO of OKX MENA, to talk about the growing shift in crypto from institutions. We dig into what digital asset adoption looks like and how OKX is preparing for scale, trust, and regulation in the UAE. Rifad shares insights on how they’re rebuilding trust after FTX with better custody and compliance, the future of stablecoins and CBDCs, and the rise of tokenization in real-world use cases. We also talk about why the UAE is leading the way in global crypto regulation. Watch the full episode here.

Subscribe for weekly updates on all things fintech here. Thank you to our sponsors E&, SC Ventures, HALA, Mastercard, Digit 9, and Thunes for making today's edition possible.

💡 Want to guest post in this newsletter?

This newsletter reaches over 29,000 subscribers interested in fintech’s latest developments. If you have an insightful perspective to share, drop us a line at editor@couchonomics.com.