Blockchain observatory at Sngular. Some thoughts

Last Tuesday I went to the Blockchain Observatory meeting at Sngular. It was good to see so many people so deeply interested and involved in Blockchain. However it also made me think about the hype we are in. I'll summarize three ideas.

1) Somebody showed a diagram expressing that currently the value is provided by applications, while protocols just support them. The right-hand side of the diagram showed that with blockchain the value will be mainly provided by the protocol. Only little value was provided by the application. This reminds me of the times when everybody said that TCP/IP was the solution for everything. In my view "the value" is provided by the applications. Technology and protocols just facilitate better applications. Technology is not the destination, technology is the engine of the car. I believe in applied technology.

2) Somebody else asked how blockchain would help "eliminate" NGOs so that funds could be transferred directly to the destination. This reminded me some months ago when a clever and successful technology entrepreneur told me that blockchain would make lawyers redundant. To me this is also part of the hype. NGOs are not just financial intermediaries. I expect NGOs to create value and support people, not just to transfer money. Maybe blockchain based applications can help in the auditability of their activity, but blockchain won't support refugees like ACNUR does. I also expect a lawyer to assess me and design a good contract for me, no matter if it is later executed on a blockchain.

3) Somebody else also compared the current hype with the .com bubble. Eneko Knörr, himself a privileged witness of the bubble, explained how after year 2000 many companies and investments were lost. However they left the basis (technology, knowledge, market and professionals) that have allowed Internet to grow incredibly after that. In fact Internet and IT is now much more than what it was in 2000. I liked that "evolutionary" view.

Final thought: Sure there is a lot of overexpectation on blockchain. And an important part of that is probably because of the speculation around cryptocoins. At some point in time we may have some kind of crash (probably on the financial side) and I hope that:

  a) it doesn't harm too many people too badly

  b) it doesn't ostracize blockchain because it is a wonderful tool for some things (but not for anything)

  c) afterwards we will get soon to a plateau of productivity plenty of seasoned professionals, non-speculative-only investors and great applications for the real world.

JGG