Brave Smart World

"O wonder! How many goodly creatures are there here! How beauteous mankind is! O brave new world, That has such people in't." The Tempest, William Shakespeare

What I read at the moment in terms of innovation is outstanding, and definitely not of this world. In the future, we will live in smart cities. We will fly in taxi drones or will be transported in autonomous capsules in pipes. We will establish social conformity by rating systems like in China. We will see robots taking over 800 Mio. jobs until 2030. We will live and work in a smart way out of the „cloud“. Sensors will monitor ethic efficiency, personal health, individual security. But most importantly, we will be less ill, almost completely predictive and more efficient than ever before.

Brave Smart World or Back Mirror?

These days, I often think back to my university days, when I studied modern literature. At various universities in almost five years, I read many visionary books, and ended with a Masters degree in Modern Literature. Having read all those books was an effort. Still, not many books kept my memory so awake for such a long time then books about the future: WE, Time Machine, Brave New World, Fahrenheit 451, or recently The Circle. The visionary impact of those books on today’s world is undoubted. Today, I am working on digital and innovation projects and programs. Years ago, I thought my Master degree is worthless. Today I know, it is not.

In my university career I was trained to always find the second truth about any fiction I experience. The more I see filmed futuristic visions, the more I appreciate the value of interpreting literature in my understanding of innovation and its impact on the future. Literature lets your brain float, gives more flexibility to expand the described vision, and challenges your understanding of the difference between transformation and adoption of innovation. Whether it is the "The Mechanical Hound“, the outrageous culture of youth, the fear of losing individual identity, or being (forced to be) monitored and measured. All these forecasts sound scary, and are taken from those books mentioned above. Watching the Netflix series Black Mirror or films like Transendence or Ex Machina, I get reminded that former written fiction, "already" has become reality.

Now, I could say: Those books are old. Fair enough, it took us over half a century to get their reality alive. Why bother? Still, based on this assumption that innovation is adapted faster in our current century, the question for business decision makers and thought-leaders is to interpret how realistic is the adaption and transformation of innovation based on the technological evolution? 

So, let's make this generic question more specific. The challenges for me these days are to evaluate for example: How long will it take to change the mindset of people to get from owning a car to using Transportation as a Service? Furthermore, studies by Horvath & Partners, Roland Berger and others predict that flying taxis will appear and make our travels smart soon. Car manufacturers and mobility aggregators like whim, Jurbey, SIXT and others promise new programs and options of transportation that will change they way we travel.

Being involved in many of these innovation projects and watching video material my view gets shaped by brands and consultants providing their futuristic visions. More and more I wonder, if some thought-leaders consider regulation, certification, infrastructure, personal desires and individual financial capabilities in their visionary forecasts. All those futuristic videos on smart cities make me doubt the time-to-market probability of modern innovation. Many of these forecasts lack a realm of human and society transition. In those videos, streets are very often -unlike today- not crowded by traffic jams. Two trucks exchange vehicle parts on a motorway. Well, possible… when all other traffic has gone in the air. Still, I foresee a long transition period until all roads will be as empty as we hope when a huge percentage of traffic is gone somewhere. Otherwise those trucks will generate huge traffic jams that will drive people crazy when they commute. 

Ahhh, stop. We won’t need to commute anymore. I forgot. We will work remotely.

Nevertheless, an option could be that personal traffic will be up in the air, while business traffic stays on the streets only. Who knows? But how realistic will it be? Don't humans love to have their feet on the ground in the future anymore? And are we sure, we want to have flying objects in cities and above our houses soon? For sure, governments will encourage the mobility industry to offer new environmentally sustainable mobility formats, better transportation and adapted traffic regulation to make traffic on the streets smarter. The race on the future of mobility is at speed of light. I am still waiting for someone to write the next book about it, and then make up my own realistic vision on mobility transformation probabilities. But seeing the adoption of electric vehicles in the world (4,6% in 2018), it shows how slow adoption follows since the renaissance of electric vehicles in 2018.

Also wondering, if web-based home-offices are the future, won’t there be less traffic in smart cities? Why would people need to commute with drones services compared to existing ground transportation, and where will they land? If Transportation-as-a-Service is the future, how flexible will people be to change their transportation vehicle two to three times per trip? And, despite all the new mobility options, will a car ride -chauffeured, autonomous or self-driven- not be more comfortable and much smarter for them, and much more relaxing than jumping from scooter to train to UBER on one trip?

What we are heading for is a smart city experience: Many cities want to provide the best transportation opportunity, personalized for urban needs on the smartest way from A to B. However, how fast is the development that drone taxis will be affordable for "normal" people, or that people change their mindset about mobility ownership vs. „usage per mile“?

What we are working towards is a smart business experience: Many jobs will be home-office based, automated, robotized, optimized, simple-sized. Toyota is already thinking differently about the value of machines compared to human creativity. Wise trend or wayback?

What we are aiming at is a brave smart world: Progressive urban management, social education, simple user training and time efficiency is what is needed to enable and foster modern innovation. Will it take another 50 years getting there, or will energy availability accelerate the change, or slow it down?

Many dystopian books have foreseen the extremely fast changing times that we are living in. Cinema and Netflix productions brought many dystopian novels and their visions to the masses. And both discuss -sometimes in a critical manner- the collective dream of harnessing advanced technology being invented today. Visions of empty cities, empty roads, empty shops, and empty lives are provided by the industry and thought-leaders. Will cities be massively tied up urbanized worlds? Or will they rather be chaotic, robotized and dangerous like in Bladerunner or Alita like the film industry wants us to believe?

It would be great to be able to moderate a session with a novelist, a filmmaker and a CEO and talking about a realistic futuristic (business) world, the likelihood and timeframe of it to become reality. Until then, I continue reading books and watch futuristic visions. I don’t know what the future will bring. But I am looking forward to it and am curious to hear your views on the realistic perception of the way from transformation to adoption and innovation - or from books to films. TV will expose the written narratives to a broader audience, but if you want to stay ahead of a realistic future, in my eyes reading is it.

“There is no friend as loyal as a book.” Ernest Hemingway