COP28: What was agreed and what's next?

By Sarmad Hussain and James Byrne

Last year, between 30 November and 13 December, The COP 28 UN Climate Change Conference was hosted by the UAE in Dubai. COP28 was a popular event, becoming the biggest COP meeting on record, with 85,000 participants, including over 150 Heads of State and Government. Participants came from national delegations, civil society, business, youth, philanthropy, Indigenous Peoples, as well as a raft of international organizations. COP 28 was particularly special as it marked the conclusion of the first ‘global stocktake’ of the world’s efforts to address climate change under the Paris Agreement, in a ‘nationally determined matter’, related to National Determined Contributions (NDCs). The global stocktake is a process for countries and stakeholders to assess collective progress on meeting the goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Unfortunately, the first global stocktake affirmed that we are not on track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees celsius. Furthermore, the window for meaningful change is quickly closing and global action must accelerate to increase ambition across all fronts, including ‘fixing the climate finance’, a key focus for COP29, given the COP28 stocktake findings.

Thankfully, despite the global challenge, the stocktake led to a ‘decision’ which the UNFCCC calls an ‘ambition mechanism’. This decision outlined the bold actions needed from governments and stakeholders in this critical decade to keep 1.5 within reach, and to secure lives and livelihoods. The global stocktake decision, has provided useful benchmarks and outlines guidance for countries to consider in the next round of climate action plans due in 2025.

Overview of decisions reached at COP28

CMA.5: Outcome of the first global stocktake

A renewed global focus on climate action, technology and sustainable finance, signalling the beginning of the end for fossil-fuels’.

CMA.5: Global goal on adaptation

Parties agreed on targets for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and its framework, which identify where the world needs to get to in order to be resilient to the impacts of a changing climate and to assess countries’ efforts.

CMA.5: United Arab Emirates - Just Transition Work Programme

Establishment of a work programme (WP) on just transition pathways to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. This symbolises global solidarity on the urgency of the climate emergency and a step forward in international climate justice.

CMA.5: Sharm el-Sheikh mitigation ambition and implementation work programme referred to in decision 4/CMA.4

While parties have not yet reached a consensus, they have shared many views on various procedural and substantive matters. For instance, participants highlighted the importance of multi-stakeholder engagement, and the need for the political empowerment of diverse stakeholders. Participants also noted that the effectiveness of just transitions hinges on timely access to finance, low carbon technology, and capacity-building support, with a clear focus on both adaptation and mitigation.

CMA.5: Operationalization of the new funding arrangements, including a fund, for responding to loss and damage referred to in paragraphs 2-3 of decisions 2/CP.27 and 2/CMA.4

Governments asked to step up on addressing the loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change. This is highlighted by the operationalising of a new dedicated ‘loss and damage fund’ under the UNFCCC, the priority of which was agreed at COP27. 

The Global Stocktake: 9 key themes

Significant collective progress

The global stocktake acknowledges that significant collective progress towards the Paris Agreement temperature goal has been made, with reference to an expected global temperature increase of 4 °C according to some projections reached prior the adoption of the Agreement. It commends the 68 Parties that have communicated long-term low GHG emission development strategies, and notes that 87% of the global economy in terms of share of GDP, is covered by climate neutrality, carbon neutrality, GHG neutrality or net zero emissions targets, this provides the possibility of reaching below 2 °C when taking into account their full implementation.

Climate change is a ‘common concern’ for humankind

One crucial outcome from the global stocktake are the findings of the Sixth Assessment Report which concluded that human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming of about 1.1°C. This warming it states, is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. This will increase with every increment of warming. If climate goals are to be achieved, both adaptation and mitigation financing would need to increase many-fold. 

Furthermore, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot requires peaking in global greenhouse gas emissions at the latest before 2025.  Rapid, deep an sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 60 per cent by 2035 relative to the 2019 level is therefore needed to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050.

GHG emissions have continued to rise across regions

The stocktake notes with concern the findings of the IPCC AR6 that global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase. It states that unequal historical and ongoing contributions have arisen from unsustainable energy use, land use and land-use change, as well as lifestyles and patterns of consumption and production. These patterns span across regions, between and within countries, and among individuals. It also notes the pre-2020 gaps in both mitigation ambition and implementation by developed country Parties. These gaps refer to the earlier indications by the IPCC that developed countries must reduce emissions by 25–40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. This was not achieved. To tackle these challenges the stocktake emphasizes the critical role of the full implementation of the enhanced transparency framework under the Paris Agreement. It also emphasizes that finance, capacity-building and technology transfer are critical enablers of climate action.

Deep, rapid and sustained reductions in GHG emissions are needed to achieve NDCs. Furthermore, USD 4.3 trillion per year is needed to be invested in clean energy up until 2030 to be able to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Here are some levers:

• Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030;
• Rapidly phasing down unabated coal and limitations on permitting new and unabated coal power generation;
• Accelerating efforts globally towards net zero emissions energy systems, utilizing zero and low carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century;
• Accelerating zero and low emissions technologies, including, inter alia, renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies, including such as carbon capture and utilization and storage, and low carbon hydrogen production, so as to enhance efforts towards substitution of unabated fossil fuels in energy systems.
• Reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science
• Accelerating and substantially reducing non-CO2 emissions, including, in particular, methane emissions globally by 2030;
• Accelerating emissions reductions from road transport through a range of pathways, including the development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero and low emission vehicles; and
• Phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption and do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible.

Mitigation technologies gathering momentum

The global stocktake emphasizes the urgent need for accelerated implementation of domestic mitigation measures. Thankfully, it does highlight that over the past decade mitigation technologies have become increasingly available, with unit costs of several low-emission technologies having fallen continuously: notably wind power, solar power, and storage. However, accessibility and affordability of these technologies must still improve to achieve a just climate transition. Parties should continue enhancing their mitigation efforts and are encouraged to move, over time, towards economy-wide emissions reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national circumstances. It also notes that 51 Parties have submitted their national adaptation plans and 62 Parties have submitted their adaptation communications. Parties must also provide information on how the preparation of its nationally determined contribution has been informed by the outcomes of the global stocktake in their next nationally determined contributions.

Nature and Biodiversity for co-benefit creation

The stocktake findings emphasizes the importance of protecting, conserving and restoring nature and ecosystems for achieving the Paris Agreement goals. Accelerating the achievement of the Paris Agreement would also foster climate resilience and lower greenhouse gas emissions, in a manner that does not threaten food production; and making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emission and climate resilient development.

Ambitions include protecting biodiversity and natural capital by halting and reversing deforestation by 2030, forest restoration, and preserving/enhancing other terrestrial and marine ecosystems acting as sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases. To do this, findings encourage integrated solutions such as land-use management, sustainable agriculture, resilient food systems, nature-based solutions and ecosystem-based approaches, that can offer economic, social and environmental benefits such as improved resilience and wellbeing. It also emphasises that developing countries have a right to sustainably develop, expand their economies, and improve their populations’ quality of life.

Adaptation requires collaboration and actionable policies

Climate-related financial risks, and the loss or damage they create, remain greatly underestimated in the financial system. Impacts from climate and weather extremes, as well as slow onset events, will pose an ever-greater social, economic and environmental threat as temperatures rise.

To meet this challenge, the stocktake emphasises the need for multilateralism, international cooperation, transboundary cooperation, and national climate impact inventories. This can be driven by knowledge sharing to create co-benefits between sectors. This can be strengthened by better policy guidance and frameworks. To achieve all this it requests the operating entities of the Financial Mechanism and the Adaptation Fund to further enhance support for Capacity-building in developing countries and to provide updates in their annual reports to the CMA; and encourages Parties to further enhance support for capacity-building.

Climate Finance flows must grow faster

Current levels of climate finance, technology development/transfer, and capacity-building for adaptation remain highly insufficient to respond to worsening climate change impacts in developing country Parties.

The stocktake estimates the funding needs of adaptation are now approximately 10–18 times as much as international public adaptation finance flows. It calls on Parties to double their collective provision of climate finance for adaptation to developing country Parties from 2019 levels by 2025. Also further urges the operating entities of the Financial Mechanism, multilateral development banks, and other financial institutions to further scale up investments in climate action through a continued increase in the scale and effectiveness of climate finance. To achieve this it urges shareholders to help reform multilateral development bank practices and priorities, align, mobilise and scale up funding, to ensure simplified access to climate finance from various sources, including from grants. To that end the stocktake welcomes the progress of the Technology Mechanism in building capacity for digital transformation, and for increasing collaboration between relevant stakeholders, to all ultimately scale up clean technologies. Finally it encourages further pledges and contributions towards the second replenishment period of the Green Climate Fund, welcoming the progression over the previous replenishment period.

Enabling a Just Transition

The global stocktake encourages Parties to implement climate policy and action that is gender-responsive, fully respects human rights, and empowers youth and children. A just transition of the global workforce means the creation of decent work and quality jobs, as well as economic diversification. This can also help maximize the positive and minimize the negative impacts of climate adaptation responses. Different contexts and different national circumstances necessitate the development of methodologies and tools, including modelling tools, for the assessment and analysis of the impacts of implementation of response measures. This should be done in consultation with technical experts, practitioners and other relevant stakeholders, as appropriate, to help develop more national case studies and enable an exchange of experience among Parties. Any policies and low emission pathways developed should promotes sustainable development and eradication of poverty, while taking into account national circumstances.

The Road to COP29

Article 4, paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement specifically calls on Parties to communicate a nationally determined contribution every five years, informed by the outcomes of the global stocktake. Parties must also submit to the secretariat their next nationally determined contributions at least 9 to 12 months in advance of the seventh session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (November–December 2025).

The global stocktake covers many interrelated themes, and its aspirations require an integrated approach to challenges, with tailored national responses to climate change that can help meet the global goals of the Paris Agreement, as well as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). With that in mind countries should be emboldened to address implementation gaps and ensure comprehensive collaborative responses to climate change. Ultimately it calls upon Parties, informed by the outcome of the global stocktake, to update and enhance, in a nationally determined manner their responses and their routes to Net Zero, while ensuring a Just Transition.