COP29: A stalemate in negotiations

Below statement is personal. It is my own opinion on current COP29 and it does not involved anybody else.

COP29 Azerbaijan is currently reaching its end with very little progress made. The first week was marked by a near-total standstill in negotiations, largely due to a deadlock over the climate goal. The second week did not offer anything significantly different.

In fact, while COP29 started strong with the adoption of rules for a new UN-backed carbon market, without detailing its implementation, over 100 other agenda items remained unresolved at the beginning of the second week, and more than 50 currently. "Rarely have we seen so little progress at a COP, but we knew this one would be particularly difficult," notes Marta Torres Gunfaus, Climate Director at IDDRI.

Three countries - the UAE, Brazil, and the United Kingdom - submitted new climate targets known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ahead of the February 2025 deadline set by the UN. Only the UK's targets were praised. Before the COP, a report by the NGO Oil Change International estimated that the UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil, hosts of COP28, COP29, and COP30 respectively, are about to increase their fossil fuel production by 32% by 2035. In parallel, at the opening of the summit, the President of Azerbaijan described oil and gas as a "gift from God." How can the United Nations accept such conflicts of interest in the design of an event like the COP?

The timing of international conferences often brings unexpected synergies and challenges. The ongoing COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, is no exception. Just as delegates were grappling with the complexities of global climate negotiations, news of the upcoming G20 summit in Brazil in 2025 added a new layer of significance to the discussions. The G20 nations are the primary contributors to global warming, accounting for 85% of the world's GDP and 80% of greenhouse gas emissions. Secondly, the current deadlock in COP29 negotiations, particularly on financial issues, has heightened the importance of the G20. How can we have such high-level and potentially impactful summits in parallel without coordination?

As ministers were arriving in Baku, Azerbaijan's capital, France's Minister for Ecological Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher , announced she would not be attending. This decision followed attacks by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev against Paris during his COP29 speech, where he denounced France's colonial history and spoke of "crimes" committed by "President Macron's regime" in its overseas territories. In fact, the terrible situation in New Caledonia has been linked to Azerbaijan's alleged indirect involvement since early 2024. Why is Azerbaijan bringing again this topic on the table during the summit ?When it comes to climate, would it be possible to stop doing geopolitics and low blows ?

A pressing need for COP reform has emerged. As shared in numerous publications this week, several climate leaders, including former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres, have called for COP reforms in an open letter. The current structure of these summits, with 70,000 participants, often resembles an international exhibition more than a serious climate summit. We have collectively reached a point of political correctness where issues are not being addressed properly. The numerous conflicts of interest at the last COP have turned this event into a conference without real impact.