Covid 19: Could India have done better?

Many people attempted to predict COVID peak in India based on early trends. The lack of adequate testing (that continues) and leaky and poorly planned lock-downs rendered most of them wrong.

Imagine instead of knee jerk one day lock down and then 14 days announced with 4 hours lead time, we did the following:

1. Took the cognizance of the issue in late January when first case showed up. In any case what was happening in Europe gave us an early warning but we were busy with Trump, CAA, and MP politics.

2. Did not give permission to Jamati etc. to hold sessions. We thermal screening does not help as several as asymptomatic.

3. Told offices, factories and establishments that they would be operating with social distancing norms at reduced capacity or in future, at least for some time, not at all. Giving them about 7 days to 10 days notice.

4. Ran public transport to help migrant workers, not needed for reduced capacity, to go home (when spread was much less) Giving about 15 days notice with social distancing observed toward the end when traveling via public transport.

5. In the mean time augmenting our testing capacities.

6. Then if necessary imposing complete lock down based on zones.

If we had started on time we would have been in a position to announce smooth lock down by March 1st with minimum suffering if any.

Even if we had done it this way this on March 21st, and planned well, by April 15th we would have been in a position to go for complete and effective lock downs where necessary.

I am sure a better planning than what suggested above is possible. I know hindsight is 20:20. But a lot of this could have been done provided we paid attention to this even by late January or early Feb. But despite world wide signs, we kept ourselves occupied elsewhere, for political gains. That's where we went wrong.

Now we are opening up as we officially record highest new cases that surpass previous day each day. We are encouraging risk where such risks are avoidable. Hope people will think more rationally than what we have done so far.

Virus will mutate. Rains and changing seasons will bring usually flu and water contamination. A lot of people suffering from hunger now will be malnutritioned and vulnerable. Then winter will come making mutated virus more effective. Hope all this does not happen. But probability is higher that this will happen than anything else.

Model currently unfolding will see non linear shift toward higher numbers again. We must be preparing for that scenario. -- Safe logistics for food and basics from village to cities. Work, direct transfers, and food distribution for people so that they can at least have food (announcing support and 96% is not getting them will not serve). Various kinds of financial packages, not just gimmickry, for small traders, and MSME businesses. Safety for depositors' money in banks.

Praying that it would be less demanding than what looks more likely.