COVID-19 Update: a Stream of Consciousness

For months I shared tons of data, updates and perspectives on the Covid crisis. Those updates have dropped off primarily for two reasons: a) the politicization of Covid and b) the general stagnancy of progress around the pandemic over the past couple of months.

This morning, I decided to compile a bunch of my thoughts that I've neglected to post, and do it all in one stream of consciousness here:

• Most importantly, this pandemic is very real and very tragic (4.3 million cases and 150k deaths in the U.S.)
• ... and yet it's very politicized - one side with all doomsday talk and the other downplaying the seriousness
• Unfortunately, this politicization even appears to be reflected in games being played by states and how they report their data (again, this is happening on both sides of the aisle)
• There will in fact be multiple vaccines available in early-to-mid 2021. Moderna, Pfizer, J&J, AstraZeneca and others - they will come through.
• I'm frustrated that there's no conclusive study or consensus from WHO, CDC, FDA, etc, on whether or not Covid is airborne (I know it probably is, but why can't we get this in a conclusive study, 6 months into this?)
• I'm frustrated that there's no conclusive study or consensus from WHO, CDC, FDA, etc. on effectiveness of masks
• Masks likely work (I wear them), but why can't we just get a conclusive study and end this argument? (I know there are many smaller studies - I just want a conclusive one endorsed by one of these major agencies)
• We likely have 10x as many cases as tested/diagnosed
• The recent surge is not just because of increased testing, but that's a part of it. Take, for example, my two home states (FL and MA). Florida cases have surged dramatically. MA appears to be doing pretty well. But MA is testing about 12,000 people per day and FL tested 145,000 in ONE day recently
• It's quite likely the surge in new cases is happening in most states - but without testing, they just don't know it
• With that, the mortality rate is a fraction of 1% (much, much lower if you protect the elderly and ill)
• People are frustrated with mixed/changing messages - from the CDC, the WHO, Dr. Fauci, Dr. Birx, Trump. Things change, science is slow, the messages put out to the public will be adjusted
• The schools debate is one of the most challenging yet: kids are not likely to get very sick or die from this, but what about teachers and school staff and the parents and family members the kids bring the virus home to?
• Transmission apparently mostly occurs from prolonged contact with an infected individual, likely indoors. With this, we should be able to (wisely and cautiously) keep retail and outdoor dining establishments open
• Most transmission occurs within the home (as many as 80% of cases)
• The economic impact of this crisis is beyond comprehension. The government has - and must continue to - help individuals and businesses however possible. Figure out how to pay back the trillions later
• Diagnoses and treatments of other life-threatening conditions (cancer, heart disease, kidney disease, etc.) are way down. The number of deaths that will result from important healthcare appointments being delayed or cancelled will far outnumber Covid deaths
• Goes without saying, but our healthcare workers are our heroes
• I'm thankful for the geniuses in the bio/pharma sectors who are getting closer and closer every day to "saving the world"
• Telehealth will see the explosive growth it deserves and should continue after the pandemic
• Remote work is here to stay. The new normal will be a major hit to commercial real estate but allow companies to save big money in rent and office expenses. Companies now must focus on maintaining culture and connectivity in this virtual world
• Lastly, we are going to get through this. Hang in there.