The dangers of delaying climate action until the end of the next decade
WWF European Policy Office
WWF European Policy Office is the embassy to the #EU for the global @WWF network, which is active in 100 countries.
As the EU is moving towards a climate target for 2040, Commissioner Hoekstra is considering having a non-linear decarbonisation pathway in the 2030-2040 decade - boldly backtracking on previously made international pledges. This means that climate mitigation efforts would be delayed to the second half of the next decade (from 2035 to 2040), with less emissions reduction in the first half. But delaying action could put the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, set by the Paris Agreement, at serious risk. Here’s why:
Why acting early matters
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) clearly states that to stay within the 1.5°C limit and reach net-zero or climate neutrality by 2050, rapid near-term emission reductions are necessary. Even if net-zero emissions are reached by mid-century, delaying climate action in the near future could still cause us to exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold. This is because every year of delay increases the EU’s total emissions, using up more of the world’s limited carbon budget, the amount of greenhouse gases we can emit before we surpass 1.5°C.
The European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC) confirms that additional near-term efforts would considerably decrease the EU’s cumulative emissions by 2050, and thus increase the fairness of the EU’s contribution to fighting climate change. However, it is not just about fairness: waiting to implement climate measures also damages the economy in the long term: ramping up climate action significantly outweighs the costs, by a factor ranging between 1.4 and 4 to 1.
What does the Commission’s own assessment say?
The European Commission’s own impact assessment on the 2040 target, on which the Commission’s proposal should be based, assumes linear emissions reductions from 2030 to 2040 and again from 2040 to 2050. Commissioner Hoekstra himself suggested in February 2024, in the Parliament’s plenary, that the EU should aim for a 90% emissions cut by 2040, which would allow a total greenhouse gas budget of up to 16 billion tonnes (GtCO₂e) from 2030 to 2050.
Moving away from the results of this impact assessment for political reasons would seriously endanger the Commission's credibility and undermine trust in a science-based approach. The ESABCC also confirms that the EU should decrease its emissions by 2035 by 71-80%. If the EU adopts a linear pathway between the 2030 and 2040 targets, this would mean that the EU would cut its emissions by 72% by 2035, implying that there is no room for delaying climate action.
The Global Implications
Delaying climate action in Europe could also weaken global efforts as it would water down the EU National Determined Contribution. As one of the world’s major emitters, the EU has a key role to play in leading global climate action. Many countries are looking to the EU to build trust and momentum in the Paris Agreement ambition cycle through the 2025 NDC. A straight-line pathway to a 2040 target of 90% reduction of GHG emission (compared to 1990 levels) is considered a minimum benchmark, placing EU ambition for 2035 at around 72-73% reductions.
Weakening its stance now would not only hurt its credibility but could also reduce pressure on other big polluters to act boldly, particularly G20 countries, which are responsible for about 80% of global emissions. Put simply, backtracking on climate targets puts not only the EU but global efforts towards the Paris Agreement in jeopardy.
Want to learn more?
WWF has published a report that assesses the EU’s climate targets and policies against 1.5°C scenarios, read it here 👇