Demand, decisions & decrees

The momentum of Q1 appears to be holding up through global trade tensions, with international corporations in Vietnam making real estate decisions, local buyers showing demand and government decrees aligning to highlight largely positive performance across most metrics.  

When the April tariff news broke, we made a few calls (can be found published in the Vietnam Investment Review) – so were we right or wrong?

·  “Flurry of activity from Chinese manufacturers may be over” – wrong.    

FDI into manufacturing in H1 2025 is US$12 billion, a 4% YoY increase. Industrial Park absorption was approximately 400ha, almost double that of 2024.   Granted, decisions relating to moving manufacturing and building new IP’s require years in the making; however, these numbers would suggest key deals & key developments are not slowing to the extent we may have feared in April.

· “Residential real estate may be a safe haven” – correct. 

Apartment sales rose 9% YoY in 1H 2025, with nearly 10,000 units sold in Ho Chi Minh city and Hanoi this quarter – clear signs of underlying confidence.

· “Office performance unlikely to disappear soon & is more diverse” - Also correct. 

Take-up in both cities hit our pre-Tariff projections.  Big occupiers are signing leases and decisions are getting made.

· “Large Capital expenses for commercial occupier projects to be held back” – Partially true.

Some were delayed, but several seem to be back on within the last week since the tariff update.

· “Retail & hospitality remains on ‘watch’” – Not right or wrong, valid.

5* hotel occupancy hovered at around 70% while tourist arrivals were up 12%.  But the bump from Reunification Day and the “Get On Hanoi 2025” campaigns in April likely lifted those numbers – consumer spending may still be cautious.

· “In-hand deals of significant size will be on hold” – mixed

Some were paused or put into go-slow mode, but others like UOB’s new HCMC HQ moved forward. We’ll take a grade of ‘C’ for this answer.

Looking ahead my 2025 outlook remains as it began going into the year: measured confidence.  If you want the data behind the optimism, alongside our Q2 Market Report, I’m proud do launch our first ever Vietnam Investment Guide (links in comments).  Whether you build projects, are eyeing an apartment, a new office or a manufacturing plant – its for you.  

As always, I welcome your thoughts on the guide as we’re already planning the 2026 edition.

-AC