DGA Primary Tracker: New Hampshire Preview

New Hampshire Overview

…. And then there were two – former President Donald J. Trump and his former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley of South Carolina! Technically, there will be 24 names on the ballot including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who suspended his campaign Sunday night. Governor DeSantis endorsed former President Trump, as have other primary opponents who dropped out previously, such as Senator Tim Scott (who was appointed to the Senate by then Governor Haley in 2017). Trump’s victory on Tuesday may well effectively end the GOP 2024 primary season before it even revs up.

The New Hampshire presidential primaries will be held on Tuesday. The last polls in the state close at 8 p.m. ET, although polls in most of the state close at 7:00 p.m. ET and some close at 7:30 p.m. ET. In tiny Dixville Notch, which has only a handful of residents, polls open at midnight ET and close a few minutes later once all voters have cast a ballot.  

New Hampshire state law provides for semi-closed primaries, meaning that a voter generally must be registered as a party member to participate in that party's primary. A previously unaffiliated voter can participate in the primary of his or her choice. For Republicans, delegates are allocated to candidates in proportion to their share of the statewide vote, although a candidate must receive at least 10% of the vote to qualify for delegates. Any unallocated delegates are awarded to the statewide winner. Unlike some other states, New Hampshire Republican delegates are not allocated by congressional district. For Democrats, no delegates will be allocated based on the results of the primary, according to the DNC, which governs the nomination process. 

Democratic Primary Outlook

While New Hampshire is technically the “first in the nation,” given the rules change by the DNC that has set South Carolina as the first official primary for Democrats, New Hampshire doesn’t count for the party. President Biden won’t appear on the ballot, since the contest violates the national party rules he pushed for, but supporters have mounted a write-in campaign on his behalf. The Biden campaign has not endorsed the write-in effort.                                      

Republican Primary Outlook

Trump won a competitive New Hampshire primary in 2016 with 35% of the vote, more than double the showing of his nearest competitor, then-Ohio Governor John Kasich. In 2024, Trump has had a consistent double-digit lead in the polls, with Haley needing many independent votes to close this gap.

Delegate Counter

Political Calendar

Red = Republican Caucus/Primary

Blue = Democratic Caucus/Primary

Purple = Both Parties’ Caucus/Primary

GOP Convention will be held July 15-19; the Democratic Convention will be held August 19-20