Impacts of a Likely Republican Sweep for Federal Energy Policy

As votes continue to be counted, it appears Republicans likely retained the House and have retaken the Senate and White House.  

What does this mean for energy? While it’s impossible to predict the exact makeup of the GOP agenda on energy, it is clear they are going to be reexamining the role of government, communities and investments in the energy transition.  

What’s on the chopping block:  

• The Paris Climate Agreement / Climate Finance: Trump has indicated he’d withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement — a decision he already made during his first term in office.  

• LNG Ban: Trump promised to lift the Biden admin’s moratorium on U.S. liquefied natural gas exports via terminals.  
• Biden paused approvals for new LNG export permits to allow updated environmental impact studies — a move praised by climate activists who had pressured him to do so.  
• Recent EPA Regulations: As part of his promise to attack Biden-era regulations across the board, Trump will likely target major EPA rules on emissions. 

Potential legislative initiatives to watch: 

• Permitting Reform: There is a strong indication that permitting reform will be a top priority for Congressional Republicans. A GOP trifecta could clear the path for comprehensive permitting reform, but there will still need to be some semblance of bipartisanship on any proposal that goes through thanks to the high bar for passage in the Senate. 

• Inflation Reduction Act: While some Republican districts have benefited from the Inflation Reduction Act — it has also been a talking point on the campaign trail with calls to “terminate” green spending. Likely see a “scalpel and not a sledgehammer” used to surgically dismember it.

In Congress: 

• Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers is leaving the House at the end of her term, leaving the position of Energy and Commerce Chair up for grabs.   

• If the GOP retains control over the House, Chairmanship over the powerful Energy and Commerce committee will likely go either to Representative Brett Guthrie of Kentucky or to Representative Bob Latta of Ohio. 

• According to POLITICO, there is no clear leader in the race right now — Guthrie is popular among his colleagues, but Latta is more senior. 

• Both members secured reelection. 

• With Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming likely moving up to the whip position, as the current whip Senator John Thune is term-limited out after this year, he’ll have to relinquish his spot as the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources. 

• One serious contender for the Chair spot is Senator Mike Lee of Utah, according to E&E News. 

The dust is still settling, but one thing is clear: voters rejected the status quo and there is every expectation that it is going to impact the future and definition of what the energy transition looks like.