EPIFOCUS: The global trends shaping our world
The world at times seems ever changing and ever uncertain. Some say we are living in a ‘VUCA’ world - one that is Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous. A pandemic is a VUCA problem that requires an holistic approach. Indeed, COVID-19 has shown that a pandemic is not just a concern for the health sector. The COVID19 disease, as well as the public health and social measures necessary to stop its spread, disrupt lives and livelihoods. This disruption amplifies existing inequities and can even give rise to new conflicts. The political, economic, and social decisions made during a pandemic have far reaching impacts that themselves are VUCA problems.
Knowing this, how do we envision our future? How do we face a pandemic and imagine solutions that create a better, less VUCA world?
To do just this, the WHO has embarked on a project using the foresight methodology to imagine the future of infectious threats. The Infectious Hazards Foresight Initiative brings together world leaders and influencers from a variety of disciplines to consider the global trends impacting the emergence and course of the COVID-19 pandemic, discuss its future, as well as the future of other infectious threats in the next three to five years.
Identifying global trends: STEEP analysis
As part of the Infectious Hazards Foresight Initiative, the WHO and partners have conducted a ‘horizon scan’ of the global trends that shape the future of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global trends were identified by searching the global literature and through brainstorming sessions with experts from diverse fields and perspectives. These trends are interrelated, multidimensional, and complex - they consider the planet and the way we treat our environment, where we live and the ways we work, how we communicate and solve problems, the economy and trade, as well as politics, leadership and how we govern our communities.
Broadly speaking these trends can be identified and categorised using a STEEP analysis and framework. That is looking at the Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, and Political factors that shape our world. Considering these different categories allows us to look beyond our usual silos and consider the bigger picture of trends that shape our world.
The trends shaping our world
The global trends that define the next three to five years are in many ways extensions and amplifications of existing trends that have created the world today. They represent our history and expose the roots of many of the challenges we face, and opportunities at hand. These trends are not meant to be an exhaustive list of the drivers and influences on all infectious hazards. Rather they are meant as a way for us to think more broadly and more systematically about our world when using foresight to imagine the future. With these trends as a foundation, we enter into our conversations with open eyes to what probabilities lie ahead of us. Below are short descriptions of some selected trends that have an impact on the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and other infectious threats.
Social trends
The global population is growing, and people are living longer. This shapes health care needs, the workforce, family structures and many other aspects of society. People are also increasingly living in cities which poses challenges for planning and future growth towards healthy societies. Global social trends also include inequalities and vulnerabilities and the ways these overlap to systemically disadvantage people based on the intersection of their race, class, and gender. The social sphere is also shaped by new ways of working, ranging from automation of the workforce to the rise of the ‘gig economy.’ People are also communicating in new and increasingly connected ways through smartphones and social media.
Technological trends
As technology advances at a dizzying pace, we see the growing use of artificial intelligence and machine learning to solve problems, as well as in our everyday lives. Technological advances have led to increasing use of digital technologies to transform the delivery of healthcare, create revolutionary pharmaceutical using bio-nanotechnology, and make logistics and the supply chain more efficient and interconnected.
Economic trends
The way goods are produced, shipped, and purchased has changed as globalisation shapes trade networks and supply chains. People are also more mobile and migrating for work was a common and growing trend that has been greatly impacted by public health and social measures during the pandemic. We also changing patterns of aid distribution and an increasing role of the private sector to support governments in responding to humanitarian crises.
Environmental trends
Climate change remains the greatest threat to health and well-being of the 21st century. Urbanization and changing land use patterns see humans encroaching on and destabilizing natural environments leading to biodiversity loss. Greater interaction between humans and animals increases our likelihood of coming into contact with pathogens both known and unknown. Slowing the impacts of climate and environmental change will require ambitious and coordinated global actions.
Political trends
Global political trends include evolving models of governance and the rise and power of non-state actors including corporations and philanthropies. A concerning global trend is a breakdown of trust in institutions. This lack of trust shapes public perceptions and challenges communication particularly during emergencies.
Join the conversation
Join us for a discussion of some selected trends on 26 October at 12:00PM CET. Register for the second EPI-WIN webinar “The Global Trends that are shaping our world” here. Panellists include:
· Alexander Alexiou, Senior Foresight Consultant, Arup
· Juliet Bedford, Founder and Director, Anthrologica
· Gary Kobinger, Director, Galveston National Laboratory, University of Texas Medical Branch
· Tobias Revell, Critical Designer and Researcher
By: Sylvie Briand, Margaux Mathis, Nahoko Shindo, Matthew Lim, Sarah Hess, Victoria Haldane