Is Europe Betting Its Future on One Drivetrain?

Europe wants cleaner air and more livable cities. The goal is right. But the current path—pushing new passenger cars to 0 g/km CO₂ at the tailpipe by 2035—is starting to look less like strategy and more like a single-track bet with unintended industrial, social, and urban side effects.

I’m not arguing against decarbonisation. I’m asking a managerial question: are we choosing the best portfolio strategy for Europe’s competitiveness, resilience and cohesion?

1) What the EU has actually decided

The rules are clear: fleet-wide CO₂ standards require deep cuts by 2030 and 100% tailpipe reduction from 2035. In practice: only vehicles that emit 0 g/km can be registered new after 2035. A very narrow e-fuel carve-out exists, but only under strict conditions. Managerial reading: the direction is fixed, but the execution and industrial policy around it are what will make or break Europe.

2) The climate case for BEVs is strong—but not absolute

On a life-cycle basis, BEVs are clearly better than combustion engines in Europe, and they get even better as the grid decarbonises. That’s physics and policy combined. But the footprint of battery production still depends on where and how it happens. A car made and charged in a coal-heavy context is not the same as one made and charged in a cleaner grid. Managerial reading: if Europe wants BEVs to be the flagship, onshoring cleaner, competitive battery value chains is not optional—it’s core strategy.

3) The hidden single-supplier risk

Electrification shifts dependence from oil to critical minerals, processing and cells. Today one country dominates much of this supply chain. Managerial reading: a rapid all-BEV switch without local content is concentration risk. Boards don’t bet the company on a single supplier; neither should Europe.

4) Jobs, timing and competitiveness

Electrification reshapes the workforce. Some studies warn of massive job losses in traditional supply chains; others argue that slowing down would destroy investment and new opportunities. Managerial reading: both can be true depending on execution. Europe needs to de-risk investment, align timelines with financing reality, and pull private capex with clear industrial signals.

5) Cities, congestion… and the myth of the silver bullet

Swapping engines for batteries does not solve congestion. An electric car takes the same space as any other car. Without strong public transport, BRT, trams, rail, cycling and shared mobility, we risk cleaner exhausts but equally clogged streets. Managerial reading: climate targets need throughput targets. Fund public transport with the same urgency as charging stations.

6) Beyond metro cores: the Europe we forget

Europe is not only Paris, Milan or Berlin. It’s also peripheral regions, long distances, Alpine winters and cross-border trips. BEVs are already excellent for urban and suburban use; but long, cold or infrastructure-poor itineraries remain challenging. Policy must work for all Europeans, not only for city centres.

7) The competitive strategy we actually need

Here’s a resilient playbook that keeps the climate target and strengthens Europe:

1. Keep 2035, fix the execution. Anchor credibility, but front-load industrial policy so Europe builds competitive, cleaner supply chains.
2. Measure what matters: life-cycle, not tailpipe only. Publish transparent scorecards to reward OEMs who decarbonise in Europe.
3. Allow managed optionality. Preserve a strict, verifiable lane for CO₂-neutral fuels in real niches (legacy fleets, special-purpose vehicles, remote regions).
4. Invest where congestion is solved. Public transport, service mobility and shared solutions are as important as chargers.
5. Close the infrastructure gap. Secondary corridors, rural hubs and tourism routes must not be left behind.
6. Shield and retool supplier know-how. Motors, inverters, thermal systems, power electronics—Europe needs these built here.

8) The uncomfortable truth

If we force a rapid single-tech transition without securing supply chains, skills, infrastructure and urban alternatives, we risk a Europe that is greener on paper but weaker in practice:

• More dependent on external ecosystems
• Industrial leakage and supplier bankruptcies
• Cities still congested, just electrically
• Peripheral regions left behind

That’s not sustainability. That’s fragility dressed in green.

9) A manager’s question to Europe

Boards don’t run companies with one supplier, one technology, one market. They set a direction, then build redundancy, diversification and resilience.

Europe should do the same: double-down on BEVs where they’re the clear winner, keep a narrow compliant niche for verified CO₂-neutral fuels, turbocharge public transport and service mobility, and onshore clean battery value chains at speed.

Because the goal isn’t only decarbonised mobility. The goal is a competitive, sovereign and cohesive Europe.

Your turn

This is not only a question for carmakers or city leaders. Everyone in Europe will feel the impact of this transition.

• If you work in the industry: what would you change in policy or strategy?
• If you live in a big city: do you believe more chargers will solve congestion?
• If you live in a small town: will an all-electric future work for you?
• And for everyone: do you think Europe is on the right path—or making a strategic mistake?

#SustainableMobility#EVTransition#EuropeanCompetitiveness#UrbanStrategy#IndustrialPolicy#PublicTransport#GreenDeal