The "Financial Models Are Useless" Crowd Is Missing Something Critical

The "Financial Models Are Useless" Crowd Is Missing Something Critical

You may hear this line "Financial models for startups are a waste of time. You can't predict the future anyway."

CFO Lauren Elizabeth Pearl has a brilliant take on what they're getting wrong...

"A financial model is useless as a forecast because it's not a forecast — it's not intended to predict what's gonna happen in the future."

So what is it then?

"A model for an early stage startup is actually a feasibility study."

Think of it as Lauren puts it: "It's meant as stupid idea filter."

You're not trying to predict exactly what will happen. You're testing whether your reasonable assumptions hold water. If your unit economics, growth rates, and hiring costs make sense together, then you've got something worth pursuing.

But here's the real magic...

"When a founder is in charge or heavily involved in building a model, they are actually getting to test drive the business."

You're literally connecting the dots between daily activities (getting customers, hiring people, buying equipment) and your bottom line.

Lauren explains it perfectly: "It gives them this opportunity to build a structure in their own head to connect the inputs of what they're actually gonna do on a day-to-day basis... to the financial statements."

This isn't just about numbers on a spreadsheet. It's about building financial intuition that "makes that founder a better CEO from day one."

Catch the full episode of FP&A Today with Glenn Hopper

Apple| Spotify| YouTube| Blog post and transcript

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Meme of the Week

Credit to Soufyan Hamid

Lauren Elizabeth Pearl

CFO & Strategic Advisor to Startups & Small Businesses | Cohost of "The Growth-Minded CFO Podcast", powered by Upflow | Author of "The Daily CFO" newsletter - subscribe below!👇

4w

Thank you so much for having me on the FP&A Today podcast, Datarails and Glenn Hopper! This was a great conversation that I hope will continue to evolve the narrative on financial models for early-stage startups!

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