Food Systems | Weekly Brief #7 | System Shocks and the Fragile Middle

Thanks for reading, (after a delay!). We’ve now passed 2,000 subscribers. I write this on a semi-regular basis to help make sense of what’s changing in the food system and what it means for the work ahead. Here’s what stood out this week.

1. Ferrero’s cereal move is about risk, not reinvention A premium chocolate company entering cereal (with the Kellogg's/ Ferrero $3bn mega deal) looks like a stretch at first glance. But when you step back, the logic is clear.

• Cocoa prices have doubled.

• West African yields are falling.

• Cereal is stable, familiar and easy to scale.

This isn’t about growth in cereal. It is about managing exposure and protecting margin. More deals like this are coming.

2. Ella’s Kitchen softened the message but didn’t change the product The recent Panorama investigation raised questions about baby food. 97% of snacks make health claims. Many are high in sugar or ultra-processed.

Ella’s Kitchen responded with a shift in tone. But their new product, in collaboration with the RSPB is the same. Maize-based snacks with limited nutritional value, dressed in positive messaging.

It highlights a wider problem. The message moves faster than the product. Charity tie-ins build warmth, but not trust. Good intentions don’t outweigh poor nutrition.

Parents are paying attention. So are regulators.

3. Appetite is changing and categories are blurring Snack sales are falling. Sweet snacks down 6.1%. Salty down 1.2%. The shift is deeper than pricing.

GLP-1s like Ozempic are changing how people eat. Smaller portions, fewer eating occasions, more structured habits.

We are seeing demand build in

• Protein shakes and meal replacements

• Electrolytes and functional hydration

• Fortified bars and portioned snacks

What happens next?

• More supplement-style thinking in food

• Product briefs focused on satiety and portion control

• A reset in what earns a place in the daily routine

If eating is less frequent, each choice matters more.

4. Who is going to pay for the transition This was the main question in a panel I chaired with HSBC, Nestlé and the Sustainable Food Trust. Thanks to Sustainable Foods for the invitation.

Most businesses agree on the need for change. But rising costs and unclear incentives are slowing action. Those waiting for certainty may wait too long. Those who find value now are already moving.

Catch up on the event here > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ASi1BH39IU

5. Most food still does one job, not both New data from The New Consumer shows only 3% of products are rated both healthy and joyful. Grapes, blueberries and broccoli made the list.

Taste drives return purchase. Nutrition goals do not shift behaviour on their own. There is still very little in the middle.

The opportunity is building food that feels good and does good. Not a compromise. A product that earns its place because it delivers both.

That is still rare. It will not stay that way for long!

Message me if you'd like the full report

6. A national strategy is in place. Now delivery matters The Good Food Cycle sets out a clear direction

• Health at the centre

• Skilled workforce in every region

• Resilient, lower waste supply

• Transparent and inclusive sector

It signals joined-up thinking and wider buy-in. The next step is implementation.

What happens? Who is responsible? When does it happen? How do we know it is working?

This is where business can lead. Not just in ambition, but in turning policy into progress.

If your team is working through this and needs support on strategy, capability or direction, I am happy to help. louis.bedwell@veris-strategies.co.uk