From chess to the Go game: Navigating global strategy amid the 2025 US-China trade shift

Since April, global business has looked less like a chessboard and more like a Game of Go—where success depends not on decisive short-term moves but on long-term strategic positioning. The Chinese game teaches us that advantage comes from shaping the broader landscape, not direct confrontation—a mindset increasingly vital across today’s fragmented markets, each with its own rules and regional dynamics. For executives, the question isn’t “will tensions cool?”, but “how fast can we redesign?”. While the latest 90-day rollback offers a momentary reprieve, companies must recalibrate strategy, operations, and risk planning for a landscape set to remain fluid for the foreseeable future. 

This isn’t just a trade war, it’s a strategic recalibration 

On May 12, Washington and Beijing agreed to roll back punitive tariffs, dropping US rates from 145% to 30% and China’s from 125% to 10% for 90 days. While the deal brings immediate relief to businesses and consumers, it masks the deeper shift in global economic dynamics. Structural flashpoints remain unresolved: the elimination of the US de minimis exemption for low-value shipments; China’s restrictions on rare earth exports; and the inclusion of US companies on China’s export control and unreliable entity lists.  

These moves, unlike the measured reciprocal actions that have characterized US-China trade tensions since 2018, show that both nations are playing a long game. Strategic industries such as semiconductors, AI, EVs, and green tech are the new battlegrounds where technological leadership equals geopolitical advantage.  

For business leaders, the takeaway is clear: tariffs are no longer a temporary disruption but a systemic shift. Companies that continue to operate as if normal trade relations will eventually resume will risk being out-positioned in a world where adaptability, not efficiency, determines who wins.  

China Inc.’s long game: Resilience by design 

Since its market reforms started in the late 1970s, China’s corporate landscape has shifted from a fragmented, loosely regulated environment to a model marked by strong state-corporate alignment. While national resilience has long been a corporate value in China, it now shapes business decisions with new intensity. Export-oriented and foreign trade enterprises, despite facing significant headwinds, declining orders, and uncertain revenue prospects, are aligning with Beijing’s policies, accepting short term revenue pressure as a necessary cost in defending China’s position in the global system.  

For MNCs, this introduces a new complexity. Chinese partners and customers may now prioritize national strategic interests over commercial expediency. Joint ventures, technology transfers, and market access negotiations must be evaluated through this more complex lens.  

At the same time, China is accelerating efforts to boost demand and achieve technological self-sufficiency in critical domains like AI and semiconductors. These efforts are reinforced by fiscal tools designed to buffer against economic shocks while supporting the national resilience agenda. The 10-point monetary stimulus package announced on May 7, which includes rate cuts and lower reserve ratios, exemplifies this playbook.  

This “resilience by design” approach contrasts with the largely reactive moves seen in Western firms. While Western companies scramble to adjust supply chains and absorb costs as a result of tariff shocks, Chinese enterprises benefit from a coordinated national strategy that has systemic buffers built in advance. This proactive stance not only helps Chinese firms weather geopolitical storms but also positions them to capitalize on Western firms’ adjustment difficulties.  

In such a landscape, executives must recognize that resilience means more than cost optimization. It means building for autonomy – designing systems that can function independently within different regulatory domains, establishing distributed innovation hubs that serve regional needs, developing financial structures that can withstand sudden regulatory changes or sanctions, and reducing critical dependencies in the supply chain.  

Globalization is regionalizing, not reversing 

The narrative that globalization is retreating is misleading. Instead of contracting, trade flows are reorganizing along regional lines. As new demand and power centers rise across ASEAN countries and Belt and Road (BRI) nations, China is also accelerating its pivot towards regional and emerging markets. Trade with ASEAN surged 7.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while BRI partners now account for over 50% of China’s total trade for the first time.  

This reorientation is evident in China’s substitution of US agricultural imports with alternatives, as in the case of Brazilian soybeans increasingly replacing American ones at Chinese ports. More significantly, the rise of bilateral economic deals among BRI nations, coupled with the increasing use of local currencies for trade settlements, reflects not just trade preferences but a rewiring of the global financial architecture away from traditional Western frameworks.  

Multinational firms that remain tethered to legacy trade corridors risk finding themselves at a disadvantage compared to more regionally integrated competitors. The winners in this evolving system will be those that embed themselves in multiple regional ecosystems, building resilience through strategic geographic diversification and local integration.  

What capabilities define companies of the future?  

To navigate and thrive in this transformed landscape, companies must develop four core capabilities.  

1. Modular organization - Successful enterprises must build operations that function independently across regions while maintaining global coherence, so they can continue operations even when key regions become inaccessible or severely constrained. This requires:  

• Region-specific compliance infrastructure that can navigate divergent regulatory systems

• Local supply networks with minimal dependence on cross-border flows 

• Independent go-to-market capabilities that can adapt quickly to market-specific requirements 

2. Geopolitical intelligence - With political decisions reshaping markets overnight, geopolitical awareness must move from peripheral concern to core competency. This includes: 

• Embedding scenario planning into strategic decision-making processes 

• Forming cross-functional teams that bring together government affairs, strategy, operations, and finance professionals 

• Developing early warning systems for regulatory and policy shifts 

3. Cultural intelligence - As global business fragments, local context becomes strategic. Successful organizations must shift from rigid HQ control to empowered, locally fluent leadership that understands the nuances of business culture, regulation, and political climate. These leaders should: 

• Interpret and respond to local market signals without constant headquarters approval 

• Adapt global strategies to local conditions while maintaining core values 

• Build trusted relationships with local partners, regulators, and communities 

4. Innovation under constraints - Fragmentation can accelerate instead of impede innovation. Forward-thinking organizations should view disruptions not as obstacles but as catalysts for reimagining products, services, business models, and customer experience. This involves: 

• Using limitations as design parameters that drive creative solutions 

• Leveraging AI and advanced analytics to create tariff-optimized product variants 

• Creating innovation challenges explicitly focused on overcoming geopolitical constraints 

Final reflections  

The fragmentation of the global business environment is a structural reality that will redefine strategy for the foreseeable future. But far from a setback, this could be the start of a more resilient, pluralistic global economy. Managing complexity is the new normal, and for leaders willing to rethink their playbooks, this complexity can open fresh lanes for growth.  

The economic implications of this realignment are already visible. Fast fashion retailer Shein’s preemptive 377% price hike in the US and the price adjustments by Amazon sellers hint at consumer pressure that may complicate domestic monetary policy efforts in the US. Meanwhile, China’s dual-track approach of diplomatic engagement alongside economic insulation measures signals a commitment to its long-term self-sufficiency goal.  

With the US and China both preparing for a long-term, resilience-based competition, companies that will move beyond survival to opportunity-making are those that not only develop the right organizational capabilities but also cultivate leadership teams that can navigate volatility with ease. The edge will belong to ambidextrous, anti-fragile, and culturally intelligent executives who can read the entire Go board, not just the current corner they’re playing in.