From our chief economist
Economist Intelligence: EIU
Economic and geopolitical insight guiding the world’s organisations
How many poles?
The global geopolitical landscape has been shifting markedly over the last few years. In a short space of time, the world has clearly exited the unipolar moment where the United States enjoyed global dominance. The changes are about more than China's rise, although that is one of the major trends. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has, however, made life uncomfortable for many emerging markets in a way they were not expecting. It is one thing to be joining countries with which you otherwise have little in common in causing trouble for the lone global superpower, but another when your new associates begin forming closer alliances themselves in ways that go against your interests.
The invasion has forced Russia to cleave tightly to those whom it can, such as China and, now, North Korea. This is solidifying an alternative power bloc, moving beyond a range of mostly emerging economies who each have their own reasons for wanting to cause the US minor problems. India's challenges in forging consensus at the G20, China's discomfort at Russia-North Korea weapons trade, and the various pairs of awkward bedfellows in the enlarged BRICS grouping all point to more truly neutral countries, like India, facing a more difficult balancing act. As opposing the US becomes more equated with explicit alignment with countries like North Korea and Russia, expect to see a few more places following the lead of the Philippines, and turning back to closer US alignment.
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Geopolitical isolation will push Russia and North Korea closer in the coming years. This will augment both countries’ security threat to the rest of the world.
This year’s summit made little progress on disputes related to the South China Sea and the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar.
Vietnam has upgraded the diplomatic status of the US to that of a “strategic comprehensive partner”—the same status as China and Russia.
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Data enthusiast and licensed life and health insurance agent in California, Arizona, and Mississippi.
1yThanks for the research and data. What is your data reflecting on the advent of AI technology?