Future of Events - The Results (Part 1)

Over the past 2 weeks, I have been running an independent research study into the future of the events industry. The response rate has been truly incredible, so thank you to everyone that took part and supported by sharing the survey more widely.

The most astonishing fact is that event planners that took part are personally responsible for over nearly $3bn of event revenue per year globally.

There are a lot of interesting and potentially challenging findings, so I am going to release the results in several parts. This first part focuses on the immediate impact on event organizers:

1. What are the main challenges faced by the industry?
2. When will live events start happening again? And when will they be running without restrictions?
3. What is the forecast impact on 2020 revenues?

A few notes on the sample

• The survey was carried out between 5th-16th May
• Over 200 industry professionals took part
• The sample is relatively senior (18% C Suite, 10% Portfolio Director, 25% Event Director) and weighted towards larger events (19% responsible for >$50m revenue, 21% responsible for $10-50m and 28% responsible for $1-10m)
• The response is truly global with respondents coming from 31 countries. The sample is primarily weighted towards UK (30%), USA (24%) and UAE (14%)
• 71% of respondents are event organizers, 18% are suppliers to the events industry
• Event types were weighted towards trade show organizers (44%), followed by conference organizers (17%) and corporate event planners (15%)

The main challenges facing the industry

The top challenge faced by respondents is postponing events. Based on recent conversations I have had with organizers, most large events have now found dates later in the year but given the packed calendar and limited venue capacity, the challenge is still finding dates for smaller events. There is also the risk that events that had been postponed to the Summer will no longer be able to take place and so a second wave of postponements will begin.

The second biggest challenge is moving events online. In the next article in the series, I will be exploring this topic in more detail.

Thirdly, organisers are working out how to run live events with restrictions. Note that whilst the survey was live, UFI released a framework for organizers to use to reopen events which may have influenced opinions for some participants.

I asked a follow-up question on this to find out specifically what restrictions are expected by organizers before events will be able to happen. Of the 11 options offered, 4 of the top 5 selected related to social distancing: setting attendance limits, spaced seating, increased space between aisles and staggered entry times. The other main option selected was mandatory mask wearing.

Some of the more elaborate solutions being pursued such as UVC air purifiers, full body disinfectant machines and contact tracing apps were selected by less than a third of respondents.

I am running a follow-up survey with participants in events as opposed to organizers. It will be interesting to see how the views of participants compare. If you have not already done so, please share my post below. The more responses, the more valuable the results for everyone!

When will live events return?

I was surprised by this finding. Over a quarter of event industry professionals do not think live events will start happening until 2021. Given the number of events that organizers have scheduled for the second half of the year, I was expecting cautious optimism from the industry. This suggests that a section of the industry does not expect those events to go ahead.

That said, just over half (54%) believe live events will return in September or October this year. This would be in time to hold many of the events that were postponed from the first half of 2020.

It is also worth noting that while the survey was ongoing, it was announced that events in Germany could start happening by the end of May and RAI Amsterdam is able to reopen for trial events.

When will live events return without restrictions?

There is understandably a desire to 'get back to normal'. The industry was experiencing consistent, healthy levels of growth before Coronavirus hit. But most organizers expect it will be a year before live events are running without restrictions with Q2 2021 and Q3 2021 the most popular estimates. This is in-line with the 12-18 month timeline being touted by experts for a potential vaccine.

Forecast for 2020

Let's start by saying that forecasts go out-of-date very quickly at the moment. As the results above show, there is no over-riding consensus of when events will start to take place. And even when they do, it remains challenging to predict how successful they will be. One promising sign was the Hunan Auto Show taking place at the end of April 2020 apparently covering more sqm than in 2019 (60,000 in 2020 vs. 50,000sqm in 2019).

That said, here are the breakdown of responses for revenue expectations:

Weighting these by organizer size and applying mid-points to each range, the average comes out at a 34% decline in revenues.

There are different statistics for the size of the industry, but if we take Beroe Inc's estimate of $860bn for meetings and events, this means $292bn of meeting and event organizer revenue is being lost.

Note the excellent work being carried out by UFI on the broader economic impact of cancelled exhibitions as opposed to just organizer revenue.

Read on

Click here to read the second set of results focusing on virtual events. It includes early benchmarks for attendance, price and revenue in comparison to live events.

Join us!

As promised, I'll be hosting my (first-ever) event sharing the full results live in an interactive session on 9th June. Please support by joining below!