Futuring Architectures: Embracing Mindset Shifts in a World of Ecosystems and AI

In this edition of the newsletter I will summarise the recent episode speaking with Ron Kersic. Ron is the mind behind Futuring Architectures and a thought leader at ING's Tech Strategy and Enterprise Architecture group. Our conversation included the evolving role of architects in navigating uncertain futures.

Beyond Target States: The Cone of Possibilities

Ron shared his rejection of the traditional "target state" approach to architecture:

"I'm going to be a bit of a contrarian enterprise architect. I hate the phrase 'end state' or 'target state'... It's for me the cone is the wrong way around. You're not going into one end state; you're opening up into a range of different sort of mindsets. This is literally the future scope—the thing expands from the possible, the probable, the plausible."

This perspective fundamentally challenges how many approach architectural planning. Rather than narrowing options toward a single destination, Ron advocates for expanding possibilities and navigating through uncertainty. I connected this to Magnus Lingquist's "cone of uncertainty" concept during our conversation, which Ron resonated with.

Ecosystems Exist Whether You Acknowledge Them or Not

Ron's perspective on ecosystems was equally thought-provoking. He emphasised that ecosystems exist independently of our participation in them:

"The ecosystem exists even if we don't want to, even if you don't play into it... it's still there. I mean, Airbnb plays into an ecosystem that existed before Airbnb, and if Airbnb would vanish from planet Earth right now, it would continue in a different shape or form."

This requires a humility that many organisations struggle with—understanding that we are participants in larger systems rather than controllers of them:

"It's not about you, it's not your ecosystem. You cannot build it, you cannot buy it, you cannot design it. You can be part of it... what you can design is your position in the ecosystem and how you will interact with it."

AI and the Democratisation of Technology

Our conversation naturally touched on AI, and Ron shared his excitement about the current moment, comparing it to the early days of the World Wide Web:

"I've never been so excited about life in general since the beginning of the World Wide Web, and I was early—1992. It's the same vibe."

What particularly interested me was Ron's perspective on how AI is democratising technology creation through concepts like "vibe coding":

"In the phrase 'vibe coding,' we tech people focus on the coding bit. The other ones focus on the vibe bit. I know people who are not software engineers, never identified as making software, who made a piece of software for themselves and they're mighty proud."

This shift from rigid specification to intent-based programming represents a fundamental change in how humans interact with technology:

"We went down a very particular road in articulating solutions... in a very rational, down to the last bit specification. And now we have a way of pretty much programming the computer in English."

From Question-Answer to Dialogue

Ron suggested that our relationship with technology is evolving from a question-answer paradigm to something more conversational:

"What I advocate for with this technology is: don't go for a better answer, go for a better question. Ask questions and ask more. Ask it to give you three solutions, and then say 'Hey, what's the difference? Can you tell me which one is better?'"

This shift from demanding precise answers to engaging in productive dialogue mirrors how humans naturally solve problems together.

Architects as Mindset Shifters

Perhaps the most valuable insight for our community was Ron's perspective on how architects need to evolve:

"It's really important that as architects we leave behind our technological legacy. We are more than that... There is a very strong appetite for seeing the bigger picture, the system beyond technology, beyond business, but actually into society and in the end, humanity."

This evolution means embracing "incremental truth" rather than fixed states:

"End state or target state doesn't exist. What does exist is incremental truth. You keep updating your story and feel comfortable in the story."

Ron made a compelling argument for increasing diversity in architecture teams:

"We need to broaden the role, the responsibility, and that also means it becomes more inviting to younger people... and people who are not necessarily the kind of people who got all giddy because they got a computer at 14 years old like I did."

Looking Forward

As our conversation concluded, we touched on sustainability and systems thinking, with Ron highlighting how architects are uniquely positioned to consider the entire stack of systems from natural ecosystems through to innovative technologies.

Ron's approach to "futuring architectures" offers valuable lessons for all of us navigating today's rapidly changing landscape. By embracing uncertainty, engaging in ecosystem thinking, and focusing on the human aspects of technology, we can help our organisations navigate the cone of possibilities more effectively.

You can connect with Ron Kersic on LinkedIn to learn more about his perspectives on futuring architectures.

What are your thoughts on the shifting role of architects? How are you helping your organisation navigate through uncertainty? Join the conversation in the comments below or drop me a DM if you'd like to feature in a future episode.

Listen to the full episode with Ron Kersic on the Architect Tomorrow YouTube channel (please subscribe!) or your favourite podcast platform.