A Game of Strategic Bullying as Xi Jinping Leads a Chorus of Defiance and Donald Trump Watches a Rival Nuclear Triad with Trepidation

Who has emerged as the biggest winner of the defiance of Donald Trump, following the Beijing meetings and the Shanghai Summit? What are the implications of the “unity” that old and new adversaries of the United States sought to signal to the mercurial man in the White House, who at times appears to be tearing apart the fabric of America’s traditional alliances instead of strengthening them as a coherent, formidable front against the axis China is now weaving with extraordinary precision?

Chinese President Xi Jinping is, without doubt, the conductor of the orchestra and the composer of the symphony that rose from the massive military parade he held to commemorate the 80th anniversary of Japan’s defeat in World War II. President Xi surrounded himself with two men who share a similar animus with Trump. To his right sat Russian President Vladimir Putin, and to his left, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, setting a scene that provoked Trump and led him to accuse the three leaders of conspiring against the United States.

The first salvo from this axis of defiance came from Xi himself, making clear to Trump that rehabilitating Putin and Kim is not exclusively America’s prerogative, and that the Chinese president is indispensable to any U.S. engagement of Russia or North Korea.

We may therefore safely say that the biggest winner is Xi Jinping. Next is Vladimir Putin, who flaunted his diplomatic success with visible glee, from his Alaska summit with Donald Trump, to Beijing, and on to the Shanghai Summit, during which he held several bilateral meetings of great economic, military, and diplomatic importance. The third winner is Kim Jong Un, who considers himself essential ammunition for powers like Iran and Russia, participating in the latter’s war in Ukraine with his troops deployed along its battlefields.

But Xi’s messages were not limited to rejecting U.S. hegemony. The Chinese president also sought to affirm China’s capacity to bend global rules, without fearing standing up to the West and its norms. That fearsome military parade was not just a demonstration of traditional power but also showcased extraordinary nuclear capabilities, including the new Dongfeng-5 intercontinental ballistic missiles.

This was strategic bullying at its most overt, garnering significant global attention. While some portrayed the Beijing military parade and the leadership showmanship at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin as a response to Trump’s bullying, they were, in truth, acts of Chinese bullying par excellence.

Today, China wants to present itself as a global leader exporting stability and prosperity, while the United States wages trade wars and actively undermines its own alliances and security partnerships. However, what Xi did last week was unmistakably nuclear bullying, not only by uniting the nuclear triad of China, Russia, and North Korea, and proudly assembling the autocratic quartet including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, but also by presenting China’s nuclear posture as increasingly aggressive, provocative, and defiant towards Trump.

Indeed, President Xi told President Putin during their bilateral talks that China will not join the ongoing Russian-American negotiations on nuclear arms control, talks which Trump hopes to expand into a trilateral framework including China. Xi made it crystal clear both through the military display and the private meetings that China intends to continue its nuclear arms buildup and further develop its arsenal.

Russia will not be able to pressure China into joining the nuclear disarmament talks Trump envisions, and this presents a problem for the American president who insists on making these talks trilateral. Russia, for its part, would prefer China's participation, because in the absence of such talks, the U.S. and European nuclear powers may significantly expand their capabilities thus fundamentally altering the nuclear balance in Europe.

According to reports, Trump is considering a potential meeting with Xi in October, possibly in China. But such a summit would require difficult arrangements and tough preconditions. Beijing has refused to reduce its oil imports from Russia, something Washington is pressing for, and has also rejected any linkage between Chinese trade with the U.S. and the prospects of such a summit. Moreover, if a U.S. Congressional delegation visits Taiwan, as threatened, that would pose a serious obstacle to any Trump-Xi summit.

Trump also wants China to be part of the security guarantees mechanism for Ukraine, which the U.S. and European nations are currently drafting. He sees this as a potential pathway to ending Russia’s war in Ukraine while bypassing the impasse of Ukraine’s NATO membership, something Moscow strongly opposes. Yet China has refused to be part of any security guarantee framework, merely expressing its wish for a peaceful resolution, while Putin continues to stall and evade a ceasefire and the obligations it would entail.

China will not back down from its economic ties with Russia, especially in the energy sector. Trump’s punitive tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, imposing a 50% duty on its exports to the U.S., only intensified the spirit of defiance at both the Beijing and Shanghai summits.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi joined the key gathering in China in what was his first visit in years, amid widening rifts with the U.S. caused by Trump’s actions on Russian oil purchases and tariffs. Trump has been trying to get Modi on the phone for some time, but Modi has refused to engage; instead, he responded by drawing closer to Xi and Putin, embracing them with open arms.

This historic meeting between China and India is a potential game-changer. The U.S.-India relationship has long been strategic and deep, while China-India ties were fraught with rivalry on multiple fronts. Modi may not be sending a formal message of rupture to Trump, but the message is unmistakable: Trump’s approach to allies and friends is creating strategic challenges for the United States, not just political difficulties for Trump himself. New Delhi’s participation may thus not have been an outright act of hostility, but it was undeniably a strong protest against the treatment it has received.

The Shanghai Summit thus came close to projecting the image of a cohesive axis standing up to American dominance and Trump’s disdainful treatment of other nations. Yet in practical terms, it did not produce a true alliance, as participants criticised the lack of implementation mechanisms for their declarations and resolutions of defiance.

Bilaterally, however, much was achieved especially between China and Russia. Their defiance materialised in signed agreements on gas pipelines and oil purchases, with a clear message: China and Russia are united in resisting the sanctions imposed by Trump’s administration, and Russia can now lean on China as a lifeline.

What Vladimir Putin gained in Alaska from Trump the end of his isolation, diplomatic rehabilitation, and buying time. What he gained from Xi Jinping, however, was concrete action to help rescue Russia’s economy. For example, the gas pipeline agreement acts as a safety net for Russian energy giant Gazprom. The deal with China will help compensate for the massive losses Gazprom suffered due to European sanctions and the shutdown of supplies to Europe. Gazprom can now boost its exports eastward, offsetting some of the losses in the west.

The defiance against sanctions and pressure that emerged from the Shanghai Summit also included joint Chinese-Russian opposition to Western measures against Iran, and political support for Tehran. But neither state committed to military intervention in the event that the U.S. or Israel resumes military operations against Iran despite Tehran’s existing security treaties with both Beijing and Moscow.

For both China and Russia, preserving bilateral relations with the United States remain the top priority, and both countries' leaderships observe red lines even in their challenges to Washington and to Trump. Iran knows this, but pretends otherwise because it needs to project an image of close alliance with Beijing and Moscow to assert its weight regionally and internationally. At the same time, Tehran is deeply afraid of renewed U.S. military action and the re-imposition of European sanctions, which is why it takes one step forward and another back in a bid to buy time and avoid disaster.

Iran’s key friend alongside Russia and, to a lesser extent, China is North Korea’s leader. In China, Kim received a renewed dose of arrogance, bolstered by full Chinese and Russian support, reinforcing his role as a key instrument of pressure against the United States.

All of these men who shone, boasted, mocked, and laughed together at the Beijing and Shanghai summits felt like victors and heroes. But how long will this intoxication last? We shall see in the coming weeks how Donald Trump, a man who excels at vengeance and refuses to back down from confrontation, chooses to respond.