Going Deeper: Iceberg Model, Part 2 – It’s More Than Just What You See

Welcome back changemakers,

In Part 1 of our Iceberg Model series (did you miss it? Read it here) , we explored the visible tip: the events we can observe and the patterns that emerge over time. But as any changemaker knows, what’s visible is just the start.

This time, we’re going deeper—to the layers where real, lasting change begins.

In this edition, you’ll discover:

Underlying Structures – The systems, processes, and relationships that quietly shape patterns of behavior.

Mental Models – The deeply held beliefs and assumptions that keep systems stuck (or set them free).

We’ll also share a practical, step-by-step example showing how these hidden layers interact—and why working below the surface is essential if you want to shift a system for good.

This newsletter contains: Tools breakdown, Case Study

The Hidden Forces Shaping Change

We’ll also walk you through a complete example to show how these levels interact, and how interventions at the deeper layers can lead to real, sustainable.

Level 3: Underlying Structures – What Shapes the System?

Structures are the rules, roles, processes, and relationships that create the patterns we see. When we map these interactions using tools like Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs), we begin to see feedback loops that reinforce problems, or offer points for change.

Example: In an education program, a CLD reveals that:

• Overworked teachers → reduce classroom quality
• Poor learning outcomes → increase pressure on teachers
• Resulting burnout → further worsens teaching quality

This feedback loop explains why academic outcomes don’t improve despite surface-level efforts like supplying more books or tech.

Why It Matters: Changing structures—like adjusting class sizes, workload distribution, or teacher support—can shift the entire system.

Level 4: Mental Models – What Beliefs Drive Behaviour?

Mental models are the deeply held beliefs, assumptions, and values that shape behaviour and decision-making. They’re often invisible, but they explain why structures persist and patterns repeat.

Example: In the same education program:

• Teachers believe “poor kids just don’t value education.”
• Students believe “school won’t help me get a job anyway.”

These beliefs affect motivation, effort, and engagement. Addressing them—through mentorship, storytelling, or community dialogue—can reshape how people see their role in the system.

Why It Matters: Without shifting mental models, even the best structural reforms may fail. But when beliefs change, systems can transform.

Full Example: Low Savings Among Factory Workers

Let’s apply all four levels of the Iceberg Model to a common issue faced by NGOs:

Event: Most workers don’t have emergency savings.

Pattern: BOTGs show dips before festivals and after health crises, indicating a recurring strain on finances.

Structure:

A CLD shows that:

• High informal borrowing
• Lack of formal savings options
• Irregular pay cycles reinforce low savings behaviour.

Mental Models:

Workers believe:

• “Saving small amounts won’t help.”
• “Banks are not for people like us.”

By working at each level—offering mobile savings tools, improving financial literacy, and reshaping beliefs around money—an NGO can design a strategy that works with the system, not against it.

The Power of Seeing Deeply

The Iceberg Model reminds us that lasting change doesn’t happen by reacting to surface events—it happens when we uncover and shift the deeper structures and beliefs that hold systems in place. Whether you're working in education, health, finance, or any other field, the real levers for transformation are often hidden—but they’re always within reach if we know where to look.

By pairing tools like Behaviour Over Time Graphs and Causal Loop Diagrams with a deep dive into underlying structures and mental models, we can design smarter, more sustainable interventions.

Understanding what drives a system is just the first step, the real challenge lies in translating those insights into action.

When your teams are trying to shift habits a well-designed communication tool can be the key instrument. These tools, be it playbooks, guidebooks, or journals help translate behavioural insights into materials that people relate with.

We work closely with your program, research and field teams to develop these customised tools for your programs. We build tools based on the particular program needs in adaptable formats. Connect with us and let us know what works for you.

What’s Next?

Now that we’ve mapped out what to look for beneath the surface, how do you choose the right tools to change what you find?

In our next edition, we’ll tackle that head-on with a practical guide: Choosing the Right Behaviour Change Theory for Your Program.

You’ll learn how to match your program’s goals with proven theories, so you’re not just acting, but acting effectively.

Until then, keep digging deeper—and remember: the most powerful shifts often start below the surface.