Hungry weeds would devour a third of our food!

For farmers, a weed is not just “a flower in the wrong place”. Quite the opposite: in agriculture, uncontrolled weeds pose an existential risk. Across the U.S. and Canada alone, it is estimated that uncontrolled weeds would cost corn and soybean growers about $43 billion annually. By competing with cultivated crops for vital resources (sunlight, water, and nutrients), weeds inhibit crop growth and account for an estimated 37% of yield losses (compared to 29% for insects and 22% for diseases). In parallel, increasing productivity by intensifying agriculture, rather than expanding land usage, is our only option: I was once again reminded by my summer reading choice, Michael Grunwald’s We Are Eating The Earth, the worst pathway we can take (both for humanity and the planet) is to continue converting ever more land for agriculture. This topic has also been explored in detail by the WRI.

Let’s revisit the past: right up to the “Green Revolution” in the 1940s, weed control meant manual weeding – even on commercial farms. While this method is immediately effective, precise, and minimal in its impact on ecosystems, it is also extremely labour-intensive. For generations – including my grandparents, parents, uncles, and aunts – farm labourers would have spent more or less every working hour pulling weeds. (And many of these would have been children; we tend to forget that child labour was widespread across the world throughout most of history.) Modern organic farms implement mechanical weeding techniques, which are more scalable than manual methods, but remain labour- and land-intensive (and we must urgently reduce our dependency on land-intensive agriculture, per Grunwald). Chemical herbicides, therefore, have been revolutionary for many farmers, helping them substantially increase yields within the constraints of available land and labour.

When applied correctly, herbicides can boost grain yields in arable crops by between 19% and 372%, with an economic benefit of US$305 to $867 per hectare in comparison to unweeded controls.

Farmers need multiple options to combat resistant weeds

The emphasis here is on applying herbicides “correctly” – and on every farmer applying them correctly. For while chemical herbicides are indeed a powerful tool for increasing crop yields by effectively controlling weeds, the degree of benefit varies according to local weed pressure, crop system, and agricultural conditions. It certainly is not a case of “more is more”: herbicides should be applied selectively, judiciously and in a targeted manner. Ideally, chemical herbicides should also be used just as one part of an integrated weed management system that also incorporates technological, cultural and mechanical tactics (which are nowadays enhanced by AI tools), crop rotation or cover crop planting. This is a core principle of the regenerative agriculture approach which Bayer promotes, and one which combines technology with ecology to maximize yields, reduce carbon footprint and have as minimal an impact as possible.

However, in previous decades, overreliance on individual herbicides has reinforced the natural selection process, leading to the development of “superweeds” – resilient species that have developed resistance to multiple herbicide classes simultaneously, rendering traditional weed management strategies increasingly obsolete. In the United States alone, over 160 weed species have developed resistance to at least one herbicide mode of action, with some populations showing resistance to five or more different chemical classes. Globally, the figure is over 500. In addition, regulatory scrutiny is contributing to this trend as many Modes of Action are being removed from the market, reducing herbicide diversity and farmers’ choice. In the European Union alone, the Crop Life Europe industry association has calculated that 76 conventional active substances have been lost since 2019, without a single new approval. This is extremely concerning for the EU agriculture and crop protection sectors as it risks shrinking the options for managing pests and diseases, potentially impacting farm productivity and sustainability. You cannot just take away farmers’ technologies and expect them to grow – or even maintain – crop yields.

Herbicide resistance can endanger the productivity of entire fields, and its implications extend far beyond individual farms. As resistance spreads, farmers are caught between a rock and a hard place: either they apply higher doses of existing herbicides (often with diminishing returns and greater environmental impact), or in extreme cases they abandon affected fields to uncontrolled weed growth. Neither option is sustainable in the long term.

Resistant weeds cost farmers billions of dollars in increased competitive losses, herbicide use, harvest losses, and additional labour and other resources, with costs escalating as resistance patterns become more complex and geographically widespread. And the impacts on food security are profound, with some studies estimating resistant weeds can reduce crop output in heavily resistant fields by up to 50%.

This impact is particularly concerning in light of the recent publication of the Sustainable Development Goals 2025 progress report, which underscored that the world is not on track to meet the “Zero Hunger” goal.

Icafolin: a breakthrough in weed management

Herbicide resistance demands innovative solutions that can break through existing resistance patterns while providing farmers with effective, sustainable tools for protecting their crops. That’s why Bayer invests more than €2 billion every year in new technologies for agriculture – and why, in our “We Listened. We Learned.” communication in 2019, we dedicated over €5 billion to driving the scientific developments that would complement our existing herbicides like glyphosate and give farmers more choice in weed control. Across our entire portfolio, we also promised to use innovation to reduce the environmental impact of our products and solutions by 30% by 2030. And we are therefore extremely excited about our new significant development in this sphere: Icafolin, the first new herbicide mode of action for broadacre post-emergent weed control to be developed in 30 years.

This molecule is from a new chemical class and has been designed to break weed resistance and safeguard yields in a broad range of crops (including cereals, soybeans, and fruits and vegetables). We also anticipate that Icafolin will have a very favourable safety profile. This helps farmers, for example in the U.S. and in Brazil, to maintain no-till and low-till techniques – an important cornerstone of regenerative agriculture. Moreover, Icafolin acts by “freezing” weeds in place, creating a protective mulch layer on fields that prevents erosion and protects soil from water loss. Another advantage of Icafolin is that it is effective on grassy weeds, which are thriving under elevated CO2 levels and the higher temperatures triggered by climate change, especially in Brazil. And finally, Icafolin demonstrates strong potency against biotypes already resistant to multiple herbicides’ modes of action, which equips farmers with an effective measure against hard-to-eliminate weeds.

AI-driven discovery – the future of crop protection

Icafolin demonstrates a clearly positive safety profile, as well as a strong biological performance. But for me, what truly sets the molecule apart is that it fully meets the criteria of Bayer’s new AI-driven research approach – CropKey. A quick summary of how CropKey works: in the past, we would have screened our large databases for molecules that could work against weeds, pests or fungi. With CropKey, by contrast, we can design molecules that are an exact fit to enzymes or proteins in pests that we want to target, working like a key in a lock. Apart from the efficacy of the active ingredients we are developing, we can include safety considerations at a very early stage in the process since we are working in a virtual environment with AI. If a molecule has the potential to be harmful to pollinators, mammals or humans, we can exclude this molecule from the further R&D process very early. In the past, this was only possible later when performing safety studies in the lab. This is another milestone in Bayer’s proud heritage as a pioneer.

Since 1863, our scientists have been at the forefront of biological and chemical breakthroughs: we employed chemists six years before Dmitri Mendeleev invented the periodic table, and we had already begun thinking about AI long before the hype, when NVIDIA was still just thought of as a component manufacturer for game consoles.

Icafolin is currently undergoing the regulatory approval process in several regions, including in the European Union. As Handelsblatt reported a couple of days ago, we are seeking to register it as an active substance (AS) in the EU, and have recently submitted our 80,000-page dossier (yes, eighty thousand!), which will be a critical step in its commercialization. After receiving AS approval, we will then begin submissions at national level in individual member states, and expect national product registrations in time for a 2030 launch.

Across the Atlantic, our timeline is slightly faster: we submitted our registration in Brazil in September 2024 and are optimistic that we can launch Icafolin in 2028. In the U.S. and Canada, we have already completed our regulatory submission with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This submission included five end-use products developed for use with some fruits, tree nuts, grapes, citrus, soybean, cereals, pulses, and oil seeds. Here, we anticipate registration in time for the 2029 season.

We have every hope that regulators will be satisfied with the data-intensive submissions we have put forward, and that we will be able to bring a product to market by the end of the decade.

Unlocking Icafolin’s promise serves a common purpose

Farming stands at a critical juncture and is confronted by both “big” issues like climate change and geopolitical volatility, as well as the lesser-known developments like resistant weeds.

In the face of these mounting challenges, the stakes for increasing agricultural productivity have never been higher. And against this backdrop, Icafolin represents an exciting opportunity: one that leverages the best of science, AI, and sustainability to empower farmers, protect yields, and safeguard our environment for generations to come.

But innovation alone is not enough. It is up to everyone involved in the food chain – farmers, scientists, policymakers, and industry leaders – to champion responsible stewardship of these new tools. Equally important are science-based regulatory pathways, investment in farmer education, and collaboration across agricultural disciplines.

Only by connecting the dots in this way can we ensure that groundbreaking solutions like Icafolin can help break the cycle of resistance and advance a regenerative, resilient agriculture. And only by recognizing the power of innovation can we help drive sustainable change and equip every farmer with the tools they need to feed the world – without eating the Earth.