IMO's 2028 Emissions Plan Likely to Pass, But Enforcement May Vary

To read the full Argus Oil story, click here. Key takeaways:

• Locked In: With 63 countries backing the International Maritime Organization’s 2028 greenhouse gas plan, adoption in October is assured, even if every nation that abstained from voting in April sits out again.

• Power Base: Supporters, including Greece, China and Japan, control most of the world’s merchant vessel tonnage (see chart). IMO plan supporter countries could choose to penalize violators with port bans, surcharges or higher insurance costs.

• Small but Loud: Sixteen IMO plan opponents, holding just 7.6% of global merchant fleet tonnage, include major oil exporters such as Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Russia and Venezuela.

• Fault Lines: Key IMO plan supporters like China and Singapore rely on oil imports from dissenters, leaving room for politically selective enforcement.

• US Wild Card: The US, with only 1.9% of global merchant vessel tonnage, opposes the IMO plan set to start in January 2028. But a Democratic US administration from 2029 could shift its stance.

Gain insights into the Americas and global sustainable bunkers market at Argus' marine fuel conference in Houston on Sep 10-12.