The Incumbency Paradox

The Incumbency Paradox

Congressional incumbency is well over 90% yet, by most reports, Congressional approval is in single digits (and has been for over a year). So how are we reelecting the same group of people who voters don't approve of nearly unanimously?

While this is a very complex problem, I think there are four major, easily addressable components (in no particular order):

  1. Historically low voter turnout, particularly in primaries and midterms. You'll notice that in the intro, I didn't say "voters disapprove", I said they just "don't approve". That's because not approving does not imply disapproval, and while that may sound like semantics, it's not; only 39% of registered voters punched a ballot in 2014 (the lowest number since 1942), which made me wonder: are voters expressing disapproval by not voting?
  2. Gerrymandering (which is probably beyond the scope of this post, but if you're interested in understanding the problem and some potential solutions, there are some links...)
  3. Changes in the interpretation of campaign finance regulations which has allowed a massive influx of corporate money on campaign expenditures through Super PACs (again, probably outside the scope of this post, but the two major Supreme Court cases in question here are the 2010 Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission decision and the 2013 McCutcheon v. Federal Election Commission decision, which dismantled important parts of the 2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act.)
  4. Congressional seniority grants more powerful positions on more important Congressional Committees (so voting out a nasty, corrupt incumbent candidate can end up negatively impacting your state's representation in Congressional Committees, because your new "freshman" representative will get poor committee assignments!)

 

"The vast majority of people are really giving up on the political system. Ordinary people are hurting. They work longer hours for low wages. They know we're the only major country on Earth that doesn't have a national health care program. They look at Washington and they say, hey, what’s going on in Washington? These guys are representing the billionaire class. Why should I come out and vote?" says Bernie Sanders (I - VT), the self-proclaimed "democratic socialist" running against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. This quote actually makes me hopeful; people are waking up and realizing that they really aren't being represented. At a certain point this group of people will reach a critical mass and their voices will be heard. 

Last night's Iowa caucus is the beginning of an awakening among American voters who are tired of feeling like they're not being heard. While Sanders didn't win, he came closer than anybody could have anticipated (seriously, how lucky do you have to be in order to win six coin-tosses in a row?!). While Congress may be somewhat of a "lost cause", we still have a chance to elect an executive who appears to genuinely understand and appreciate the threats which loom over the American middle class. 

Please remember to register to vote, and mark your state's primary/caucus on your calendar (regardless of who you intend to vote for).

 

Disclaimer: the opinions expressed above do not necessarily reflect those of my employer or other associated entities.

Jason Schissel

Data Scientist, angel investor. Ex-meta, ex-snap, ex-LinkedIn

9y

The other explanation I've heard is that everyone likes *their* senator (because hey, favoritism looks like fairness when it's me that's your favorite), but it's all those *other* crooks that need to get out

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